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GOP Claims to Create 6.2 Million Jobs With Their Stimulus -- Using Some Questionable Math

Ahead of last night's vote on the $819 billion House stimulus bill, which no Republican supported, House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) frequently asserted that his party's alternative stimulus plan -- consisting largely of tax cuts -- would create 6.2 million jobs.

That sounds great. After all, it's double the 3 million jobs that the president aims to create or save. But where did the Republicans get that number? By drawing some fuzzy conclusions from a 2007 paper by Dr. Christina Romer, chair of Obama's Council of Economic Advisers.

If you look at page 3 of the GOP's document, you'll see this passage:

In fact, a year before being tapped to serve as the Chairman of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, Romer co-authored a report echoing the view that tax cuts can have a very large economic stimulus effect. As the authors noted at the time, 'tax cuts have very large and persistent positive output effects.' ... Using different assumptions and different sample periods, they estimated that a change in taxes equal to 1 percent of GDP resulted in a 2.2 percent to 3 percent change in GDP, with tax cuts increasing GDP.

We find Dr. Romer's previous conclusions on the economic impact of change in tax policy as an appropriate multiplier for examining the impact of stimulus proposals.

Except that the Romer analysis used by the GOP (linked to in the third paragraph of this page) never examined the effects of tax cuts on a deflationary economy -- it looked at the effects of tax increases on the economy as a whole and found a negative effect of 2.2% - 3% on GDP.

The Republican analysis simply flipped those numbers to positive and applied them to the GOP-backed tax cuts, then multiplied the result by a broad job creation estimate used in a recent paper from Romer and Jared Bernstein, an economic adviser to the vice president. If you read the Republicans' document, you can see the caution advised in assuming that 6.2 million jobs would be created by their plan.

But if you listen to Boehner's rhetoric, well, Congress just missed the chance to create more jobs than Obama.


50 Comments

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Thank you. I had a feeling that the numbers floated were false.

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I'm actually surprised the numbers were calculated with reference to any economics at all (however dishonest); since Boehner was publicly begging a few weeks ago for any economists who would support his position, I figured he'd just pulled the number out of his ass.

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It's up to the Obama Administration to quickly correct GOP misinformation like this. If they don't nip it in the bud and call out Boehner for using bogus numbers in an attempt to mislead the American people, it gets reported uncritically by numerous media outlets.

Given that Romer and Bernstein are in the Administration, it should be pretty easy to contradict this elementary level error. It's totally ridiculous on its face!

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This number is probably going to be repeated without any clarification by Cambell Brown, Anderson Cooper, Mark Halperin, Contessa Brewer, Andrea Mitchell, John Harwood, Rush Limbaugh, Matt Drudge, Larry King, et al.

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Exactly. Thank you for bringing this to our attention, Elana!

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The Dems and or the Obama administration need to do what they did during the campaign: issue statements and trot representatives out to the media in a timely way to rebut lies and spin- and remind people watching what's really going on.

In a way- it's still the campaign-- as long as the other side is going to obstruct, obfuscate and flat out lie there has to be a corrective response. Get on tv, get online, and set the record straight.

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Boehner and the GOP are lying?

What a surprise!

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I am so disgusted right now. I was channel flipping and MSNBC was actually going to examine and talk about Rush Limbaugh's own stimulus. I blame both the Right and the Left media for giving this joker any level of importance. He made a comment, Obama made a comment and the media turned this into some kind of war.

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Limbaugh is fighting to survive the Obama era. It will get far worse before it gets better.

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I agree rdeaver. I foresee an absolut FRENZY out of Limbaugh before it is over. We ain't seen nothing yet.

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Rush's stimulus = another Viagra ad.

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Oxycontin, and lots of it.

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First off, we have had the "Tax reduction" theory on economics for the last 8 years, and I don't think things have worked out so far. When they say "trickle down" economics, remember the trickle is those last few drops, and not the early stream of one of man's needs(pleasures?)! It truly is a TRICKLE.

Second off, the Repugs are so good at job growth that we have lost 2million jobs in just the last 4 months. All of a sudden, they have discovered the holy grail on how to create jobs? Gimme a Fn break.

Finally, to the Oxy Kid: I don't remember Democrats getting to have 49% input after the last 2 elections, which King George barely won. Now that Obama TROUNCES, you hear that Oxyboy, trounced your candidate, and his shrinking party, you think you guys "own" a share of the plan? I personally think that if your cohorts pull this BS consistently, I mean 0-a hand full of votes for what Obama wants, it won't be long that the public starts stateing that elections have results, and the Repug way of government has been repudiated, and the people of America have voted for the Democratic ideas for America.

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No we've had the tax reduction theory on economics for most of the last 28 years. In 1981 when Reagan came into office we had a $990 billion dollar nat'l. debt, it's now about $11 trillion and counting. We were promised that the tax cuts would rocket boost the economy and result in increased government tax revenues that would erase annual deficits and the debt.

Bush 1 raised taxes, Clinton raised taxes and with the dotcom boom we had a couple years of surpluses instead of deficits if you don't count the continuing raid on the Social Security lockbox that both Gore and Dubya promised they'd end if elected in 2000.

Anyway my point is it hasn't just been 8 years it's been going on for almost 3 decades.

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I don't know how anyone could question their math. After all, look at all the jobs created by the previous rounds of tax cuts. But for those we wouldn't be enjoying the prosperity we have today.

By now I'm no longer surprised they continue to say this stuff. I'm mildly surprised that they can say it with a straight face. What's really surprising is that these statements aren't greeted with uproarious laughter from everyone present.

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I laughed.

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This is an outstanding bit of work.

Not that the boneheaded MSM asshats will grasp it or correctly report it. Most are too dumb. Those who aren't will assume their viewers are too dumb/will be bored by it.

Or, worst of all, they'll treat it as a "report the the controversy and imply the truth must be in the middle" story.

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At this point the question really becomes, where are the Democrats? Why are they relying on random blogs to make the case for the stimulus to the public rather than doing it themselves?

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The polls show overwhelming support the stimulus so apparently the Republican msg isn't gaining any traction.

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So, give big tax cuts to rich people, they'll take all that money they're saving and start putting more into their companies and hiring more people and that will save the economy. Gee, that's fresh.

I see some problems with that:

1) They're placing blind faith in the wealthy and corporations taking their tax cut money and putting it somewhere that might benefit someone besides themselves. History doesn't support that.

2) They've been trying this same 'tax cuts for the rich' plan for three decades now and it hasn't fucking worked!!!

"Republican" = another word for extremely slow learner

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Slow learner? I think you meant: No learner.

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Yeah, because the one thing we're short on right now is productive capacity...

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I think the Obama v. Limbaugh dynamic is terrific for us. The more Limbaugh is used as the leader of Republican thought, the better.

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If anyone thought they weren't bloviating bullshit they must be kidding themselves.

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Remember, the entire Republican economic plan is literally based on a napkin drawing, the one that Laffer drew his curve on over cocktails back during the Reagan Catastrophe.
Never has an economic foundation been more appropriately named than the Laffer Curve.

And as for the success of 'trickle-down,' I think it was George Kennedy who said it best, in one of those mid-60's prison flicks:
"Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining."

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Although I admit I'm a news addict, I think its time to boycott cable news. Their emphasis on Republican ideology has gone too far for too long & things are too serious for this.

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Thanks for running this down Elana. When I heard the bonehead's claims last night I assumed that it would turn out to be yet another Republican slight of hand trick. Thanks again for doing the heavy lifting.

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Correction: That quote was from "The Outlaw Josey Wales", and the actor was John Vernon, also remembered as Dean Wormer in "Animal House".

But it still accurately captures the warm, yellow sickliness of trickle-down economics.

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Or, more aptly, "tinkle-down economics".

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Yeah, I believe this used to be called "dynamic scoring" by them. Flim-flam artistry at it's worst.

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Elana, this is a great post. Thank you for sourcing the silliness for us.

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Never listen to a Republican when it comes to economics. I heard Broehner talking about tax cuts as an alternative to goverment spending in terms of stimulating the economy and in the same sentence indicate he was a supply side economist. If he had any understanding of supply side economics, he would know that one of the main propositions is that increasing spending, through either tax cuts or government spending, does not stimulate the economy, the assumption being that markets are so efficent and workers and employees so well informed that aggregate demand and aggregate supply will equalize almost immediately, creating the same level of employment that existed before the spending. I can only assume that Broehner is operating in some kind of Keynesian or Neo-Keynesian framework, in which case it would make sense to have the government spend the stimulus money directly given that consumer confidence is so low and that monetary policy is futile due to rock bottom interest rates. Even if interest rates could be lowered no one would lend because we're in an f***'n liquidity crisis.

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The Republicans cannot turn their backs on their gods (Limbaugh, Hannity, etc.). If they do, there will be hell to pay... AND, they'll have to go looking for other gods to worship....

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I found the best summary about the pros and cons of the stimulus package (mostly pros) and the futility of republicans critics in, of all places, the America magazine. It is a quick page but it is really clear. The link is http://www.americamagazine.org/blog/entry.cfm?blog_id=2&id=22AB2162-1438-5036-4F7EAC6D165871CA&comment=1&success=1
I don't generally use the comments to promote other articles but this one looks especially good to me.

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Delong has a good post on this:

http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2009/01/dueling-multipliers.html

"Hmmm... I get 4 million {not 6.2] in the short run using the Romer & Romer multiplier estimate, falling over time and becoming substantially negative after five years as the national debt climbs rapidly. I wonder what hack they have cooking their numbers.

And on the basis of the Romer and Romer multipliers, the Obama fiscal boost plan would create 8.7 million jobs..."

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GOP, Fuzzy Math? Surley you must be mistaken!

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I'll take Christina Romer (and Jared Bernstein)'s actual numbers for 2009 over the GOP's distortions of her 2007 numbers any day.

Here's the actual numbers....

http://www.docstoc.com/docs/3486860/Obama-Stimulus-Job-Impact-Report

roughly 4 million jobs just as Obama said.

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Elana Shor, thank you for a great post. Thoroughly enjoyed your inaguration coverage, too. Keep up the good work!

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Good post/points, someone's got to voice this on cable news - it running all Republicans, all the time!

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Cargo cult is to religion as Republican thinking is to economics.

Talk about a failure of lip-service!!

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It certainly comes as no surprise that the Republican leadership would resort to fabrication and distortion in an attempt to make their case.

On one point they may be correct and that involves the impact of tax cuts on GDP. In the spring of 2008 Americans were given a rebate check and GDP went from slightly negative to positive 2.5%. The other half of the claim falls flat on its face. Every single month in 2008 saw a loss of jobs. Perhaps the job losses would have been more severe without the rebate checks but one thing is abundantly clear; any impact was marginal at best -- certainly not 6.2 million jobs created at they claim. Apparently they think that everybody has really, really short memories.

I'm sure that American's have had it with trickle down economics and will tune out this hucksterism coming for the GOP.

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I wish that someone would sue a Republican every time they lied to the American people.
And donate the money to the economy.
We'd be out of this depression in less then a year.
Fox news would provide half our economic stimulus pkg. alone.

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Obama has given the Republicans all the rope they need. They have knotted it about their own necks.

Now it's time to spring the trap door, with a combination of politics and prosecutions.
There is no reason why the Republicans shouldn't be eliminated from Americans politics, and replaced with a party which can function as something more than a criminal conspiracy. Of course, for a party representing the same interests as the present Republicans, that will be almost impossible

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But these go to 11????

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Pence repeated the line about the alternative plan last night on Hardball as well. This will be a talking point in every republican commeercial until the 2012 election.

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Wonder why Romer hasn't made a statement abou this?

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An excerpt from a study of the impact of the Bush tax cuts on job creation is in order:

"Between the beginning of one recession in March 2001 and the beginning of the next in December 2007, the economy created a net total of 5.5 million jobs. The cost of the Bush tax cuts over the period was approximately $1.1 trillion, based upon estimates by the Tax Policy Center. Under the Bush White House’s optimistic methodology, one-quarter of the 5.5 million jobs can be attributed to the Bush tax cuts. Each of these jobs cost $806,000.
During President Bush’s entire term in office—a period of two recessions and one expansion—the economy created a net total of 2.1 million jobs and the tax cuts cost $1.3 trillion. The Bush tax cuts cost a total of $2.5 million for each job they created during Bush’s term."
http://wonkroom.thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/bush_tax_cuts1.pdf

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Lemme guess. It was all tax cuts and nothing else, right?
Didn't Einstein define insanity as doing the same thing over and over expecting different results?

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I am so sick of these stupid senate rules where a minority can block the will of the majority. Counting on both hands you would have fingers left over for every republican in congress who even had a working understanding of economics.

Ignorant authoritarian loudmouths. The country votes overwhelmingly for Obama and a progressive liberal agenda and it is being blocked at every turn by idiots who brought us our current disaster.

Mental trash like Backmann out there claiming she represents "the people" when she is in the minority is outrageous. Seems we will not get anything accomplished till we start eliminating greedy wall street bankers who have stolen our national healthcare and energy alternatives or combating global warming. We have a media constantly parading speakers who need to just STFU because they only care about money, power and party...not the people or our democracy.

Where in a democracy was there ever any rationalization for 41 senators being capable to stop the will of the majority. WHY? Why not make it 10 senators or just say if 1 disagrees then throw out the legislation. I'm beginning to support the idea that the senate should be abolished. When Utah has the same number of senators as California it becomes clear they do not fairly represent "We the People".

Where Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO) can run as a liberal democrat and within 6mos remove her contact web site and start turning into a republican...(From Hullabaloo)
"
Claire McCaskillsays it's absolutely essential that old and sick people don't ruin everything:

Just came from bipartisan meeting on fiscal discipline. We must deal with entitlement reform. Very hard, but absolutely essential.
20 minutes ago from web

Entitlemnt reform is making sure Medicare & Soc Sec don't devour every penny of our budget leaving nothing for education or other services.
12 minutes ago from web


Apparently, they didn't receive the memo that Peter Orszag has transformed the argument from "entitlement reform" to health care reform. Somebody ought to get Claire a copy."

She never said a word against all the Bush war money or bank deregulation or defense spending but my god old people or disabled sick should just die before we increase funding to them. She forgets who got her elected but she won't forget who gets her un-elected unless she remembers why we voted for her.

The senate is allowing a conservative minority to obstruct the restoration of our democracy and our economy turning us into the Hypocrisy of the USA

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Boehner from Ohio uses the same kind of math the GOP used in the 2004 Presidential election. That math was fixed in their favor get Ohio for Bush, and now they use numbers anyway they like to obstruct progress on cleaning up the Bush economic mess.

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