GOP's Successful Media Message: This Stimulus Needs to be More Ineffective!
Republicans have blanketed the airwaves in the past week, carrying a single message that's been well-amplified, with almost no skepticism, on MSNBC ...
[Sen. John] ENSIGN [R-NV]: You know, politically, what we're trying to do is choose the right policy, something that actually stimulates the economy, that creates jobs. ... If we could lower the corporate tax rate, that would be one of the best things that we could do to make American business more competitive in the world and actually help stimulate the economy.
... not to mention CNBC:
[Rep. Spencer] BACHUS [R-AL]: We have said let's do tax cuts, let's let the American people make the decisions on how they'll spend the money. That will stimulate the economy more than bringing all that money to Washington and then distributing it out in all sorts of government programs.
... and, of course, on Fox News:
[Rep. Mike] PENCE [R-IN}: What House Democrats have done here is get out a dusty old wish list of liberal spending priorities, dump it all in a bill, and throw in a few token tax cuts on top of it. That's not going to create jobs. It's not going to put this economy back on its feet.
There's only one problem with the stimulus debate's focus on whether the percentage of spending on tax cuts should be 40 or 20, as opposed to the outright merits of such breaks: Tax cuts are an ineffective economic stimulus.
I'll repeat it again, just for emphasis: Tax cuts are an ineffective economic stimulus.
Mark Zandi, a Republican economist who advised John McCain's presidential campaign, has been stressing this point for months. Zandi's research showed a corporate tax cut delivering $0.30 in real GDP growth for every $1 invested, an alternative minimum tax patch delivering $0.48 for every $1 invested, and a regular tax rebate delivering anywhere from $1.02 to $1.28 for every $1.
Compare that to aid to state governments, which Republicans have roundly criticized: $1.36 for every $1 invested. Infrastructure spending delivers a whopping $1.59 in GDP for every $1.
But it's not just Zandi making this point. The Congressional Budget Office -- you know, the guys with the incomplete stimulus report that Republicans absolutely loved last week -- deemed last year that corporate tax cuts are "not a particularly cost-effective method of stimulating business spending."
So why is Washington still having this conversation about tax cuts? It's time to talk about why business tax breaks in the stimulus bill amount to $24.9 billion -- a small share of the overall package, yes, but more than double the amount that was invested in rail and mass transit.
Josh
Matt
Eric
Hoping for failure.
The GOP has adopted the Limbaugh strategy of hoping for Obama and the nation to fail. Knowing that, as Barack has said, the economy will likely get worse before it gets better, the GOP will sit on its hands, then gleefully pounce on any bad news as the fault of the "Democrat" Party.
Afterall, it is only the Democrats who are trying to fix the horrendous George W. Bush Recession.
January 28, 2009 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Where is the Democratic counter-message? We bitch all the time about the MSM passing on Republican talking points, but more often than not they do so because nothing else is out there, or at best statements from a handful of progressives whom the MSM is well-practiced at ignoring.
January 28, 2009 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
I, too, would love to know whether this is because congressional Democrats are too spineless to get out there, and instead are relying on Obama to carry the message (big mistake, IMO, as it will squander his political capital too early), or if the MSM simply has no interest in interviewing them.
January 28, 2009 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
The countermessage will begin with the vote on the floor of the House today. The Bill will pass and after a conference will eventually become law.
Whether it works now, or 18 months from now after some additional stimulus, the economy will recover. That will be the true countermessage.
We're no longer in a campaign run up where the daily sound bites/blurps have to be immediately counteracted. Obama and his team are in this for the long haul and the message till eventually be written.
January 28, 2009 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why waste your breath countering a sales pitch that nobody is buying?
January 28, 2009 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
The answer seems to me that as the Repugs vote unanimously against the package, go to conference and replace all the business tax breaks with identical spending on mass transit.
Make it abundantly clear that if you demand changes and then vote against the bill anyway, your changes don't get passed. Elections have consequences and so should Congressional votes.
January 28, 2009 11:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Makes good sense.
January 28, 2009 11:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hear, hear. I had been thinking that there should be some negative reinforcement to show them that "we take your giving us what we want is a signal we should ask for more" won't work any more, but I hadn't come up with a specific process. Doing it in conference is brilliant, because it can be a response to their actual votes.
And it'll still be way more fair than the way Republicans ran conference committees.
January 28, 2009 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is there any evidence that this Media blitz has been effective in convincing Americans that Obama's stimulus is bad? According to Josh Marshall, and the Front Page of this very website, no.
January 28, 2009 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Eh voila...
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/01/pssst.php
January 28, 2009 11:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I don't get the criteria for what is deemed "effective". I thought it meant that your message was having an effect on voters. It seems like the author is calling this message effective because the MSM is talking about it. Doesn't mean the public is buying.
January 28, 2009 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ummm...I take issue with your twice repeated assertion that tax cuts are an ineffective economic stimulus. It depend on which tax cuts you're talking about. It's pretty hilarious for Republicans to be on the airwaves arguing (with a straight face) that what we need to get out of this mess is more of the policies that got us into this mess. However, tax cuts targeted to middle- and lower-income people have been shown to be effective IF they're permanent tax cuts rather than one-time rebate checks. These tend to be spent immediately, which stimulates aggregate demand quite effectively.
January 28, 2009 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Some tax cuts are less effective stimulus than some spending projects. The issue is:
1. you have to stimulate spending (anything that goes to saving is not helpful right now as some portion of tax cuts obviously would).
2. If the government is going to spend money it is better off spending on public goods that (a) wouldn't be provided by the private market in any case and (b) tend to boost overall productivity over the long-term.
Surely there are spending options that would not effect stimulus or that would be worse than some tax refunds/credit targeted at those with the highest propensity to consume.
Why Ms. Schor, who is clearly unqualified to be making these various distinctions, repeatedly and with such certainty mimics a line she heard somewhere else is beyond me.
The problem with the republicans is they are always for so called "supply side" tax cuts. "If we cut the corporate tax rate they'll want to hire more people." It's all top down and it doesn't work. They are too stupid and ideologically rigid to understand that the game has changed. We need to stimulate demand. Buy more of their stuff and corporations will be just fine. The republicans in charge are making a mistake that will hurt them for a generation.
January 28, 2009 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're making essentially the same point I was making. You can't lump all tax cuts together and insist that "tax cuts are ineffective".
Furthermore, tax cuts that are targeted toward the middle- and lower-income people will be almost entirely spent and not saved or used to pay down debt, IF they're permanent tax cuts and not a one-time rebate check. It's human nature. If you get a one-time check for $600, you know you're not going to get another one so you're not going to change your spending habits. If, on the other hand, you get another $50/month in your paycheck, it just gets spent without your ever paying much attention.
January 28, 2009 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
During the last eight years the press sought out republican guests and comments because they had the power and the democrats minority opinion was not really relevant.
Now with a sweeping change in the dynamic where republicans lost majorities and the White House, they seek republican guests and comments because that's where the story is.
Odd that.
January 28, 2009 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, it is not odd. The media conglomerates are totally in the bag for republicans. That's why the republicans get all the face time. Orders from headquarters.
January 28, 2009 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
One of the gentlemen lecturing today is Rep. Jerry Lewis who is listed as one of the most corrupt. How many times do we have to fight the Civil War and win?
http://www.crewsmostcorrupt.org/summaries/lewis.php
January 28, 2009 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
The republicans have a vision of and for America. Now no laughing...they really do. Unfortunately this vision only existed in some TV show from 1955.
C
January 28, 2009 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Corporate tax cuts do absolutely nothing to stimulate the economy.
In the first place, businesses that are hurting and losing money in this recession aren't paying any taxes on profits, so there's nothing to cut. And even for businesses that are paying taxes - corporate profits have nothing to do with decisions to hire or fire people or to increase or decrease production. Those decisions are made by demand, competition, and the market. Increasing net corporate profits is just another way of funneling more money to rich people - to the CEOs and wealthy shareholders who will redistribute them in the form of increased compensation and bonuses or increased dividends - most of which goes to people who are already rich. And redistributing more money to rich people is what creates bubbles and got us into this mess in the first place.
January 28, 2009 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
How do you give tax breaks to people that don't have jobs?
January 28, 2009 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tax cuts are stimulating IF they are converted to jobs and employee wages or benefits, rather than added to potential profits or dividends.
Obama needs to press the Republicans, PUBLICLY, to point out where their formula GUARANTEES those tax cuts will make that stimulating conversion.
If Republicans immediately nod affirmatively, fully willing to make that assurance as part of the bill, then I'd say we have a deal.
HOWEVER, if the R's start to fidget and fudge and fanigle their way out of actually assuring those tax cuts DO become jobs and benefits, it should be pretty clear we are on our way to another subsidy of the rich and famous, not of the middle class in general, or the economy as a whole,
IF they are willing to tag those tax cuts to job creation, in the bill, I would be both shocked and contrite.
And I don't shock and contrite easily.
January 28, 2009 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
The thing that really angers me is the Republican Party's ABSOLUTE HATRED of poor people. They don't like Obama's tax cuts because they include poor people. One Republican was even quoted as saying that he didn't think poor people should be getting the same $500 tax credit as rich people, because it makes them more dependent upon the government.
It's like saying that you should never give a person dying of thirst a cup of water because they need it more than someone who already has plenty of water. All the water should go to those who don't need it so much, because they won't be as thankful to the government that is giving it to them.
It goes beyond condescending. Republicans don't see poor people as equal human beings with the same rights and needs as other Americans, and this seems to be the inevitable consequence of a political system managed and controlled by rich people. The needs and rights of the poor aren't even discussed - not by Republicans or by Democrats either, who now only talk about and lionize the 'middle class.'
The poor in America have come to be viewed by most Americans in the same way that southerners once viewed blacks and Nazis viewed Jews - as a kind of alien race that must be kept under control, imprisoned in record numbers, and never indulged or treated as equals.
January 28, 2009 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Democrats need to take a few classes on how to scare the living shi* out of the public, something the Repubs are great at whenever they want something. Hasn't 8 years of the Bush gang taught the Dems anything?
Obama; 'If my stimulus package isn't passed intact the terrorists will drop nuclear weapons on our cities.'
January 28, 2009 3:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
You can't appeal to people's reason while constantly stirring up all their fears at the same time. If you want an electorate that votes for sound policy rather than always being driven by their fears, you must appeal to them on that level. Republicans will always be better at appealing to the worst in us. The point is to lead in a better way.
January 28, 2009 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama needs to hold his ground and keep selling his message to the American people. The GOP have not a clue as to what to do. If they did, they would have solved it in September.
January 28, 2009 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
The way the Repubs talk you would think they just won the election. They talk as if it's their right to dictate what legislation should be passed. They are one trick ponies. Americans know it and have repudiated them. Their solution for anything economic is tax cuts for the wealthy; economy going great guns, tax cuts to make it go better; economy is sinking tax cuts; we are at war tax cuts; the economy hits bottom tax cuts. They are totally dishonest. The argument that money will go to people who don't pay taxes is disingenuous at best and dishonest at minimum. These are working men and women who pay a significant percentage of their income to all sorts of other taxes from sales tax, to gas taxes, to property taxes, to FICA taxes, etc. A larger percentage than fat cats. Trickle down economics is a failure but the Repubs are ignorant to anything else. So I say let them have their childish things, while the rest of us adults actually try and do something
January 28, 2009 10:59 PM | Reply | Permalink