My Nationalization Problem--and Ours
Ever since banking stocks started plummeting, or should I say replummeting, a couple of weeks ago there's been renewed interest in nationalization. In some ways the question is pure semantics. Ever since Henry Paulson gathered banking CEOs at the Treasury Department last year and told them that the government was going to stick capital injections in their aching behemoths, we crossed a line that involved partial government ownership. Even as they beg for more handouts, the bankers are, not surprisingly, resisting the idea. Yesterday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Jamie Dimon, the head of JPMorgan Chase, denounced all the nationalization talk. "JPMorgan would be fine if we stopped talking about (the) damn nationalization of banks ... we've got plenty of capital," Dimon said. And Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner decried the term yesterday, too. I think Dimon and Geithner are basically right in the sense that we're not going to full nationalization and its a distracting term. Utilities are the better model.
But the fits and starts towards wherever we're heading are deeply worrisome. It's worth noting what happened with Credit Unions last night. Credit Unions are owned by their members and they offer, as anyone who's joined them knows, very favorable terms to those who are lucky enough to be able to sign up for one. They also have had the advantage of being relatively conservative. They don't have wild-ass hedge funds under their wings like Citigroup does. And they generally don't trade in mortgage backed securites but some do. Thus they're not immune from the financial turmoil that's unfolding.
Last night, the federal government pumped a $1 billion into the ailing institutions. The federal, National Credit Union Administration, the agency that regulates credit unions, had to pump the money into an outfit called the U.S. Central Corporate Federal Credit Union which links together the corporate credit unions. That federal agency also said it would start backing up the investments that retail credit unions have in corporate credit unions.
In other words, you have a classic contagion where even the good, responsible credit unions are in trouble. (And that's leaving aside the problems they have with members who are in trouble on their mortgages, car loans, etc.) You have lots of government money going in but no nationalization, for better or worse.
There's not going to be government management, let alone ownership, of credit unions. The bad side of this is, of course, we've got the classic problem of private profit and socialized risk that plagues regular banking. That's a messy situation but nationalization, it ain't.


















Hmmmmm. In the thirties there was talk of nationalization. FDR went another route....
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20081208/greider
time for a bank holiday! Good article give it a read. The stock markets rallied after it was completed.
On a side note: Keith Olbermann joked the other night the a Republican friend of his said that they should keep Gitmo open and fill it with CEOs. Now that would be justice! (I kid, I kid).
January 29, 2009 6:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why kid? The outrage is deserved and the punishment is not too severe for the crime. When you think of the people who will die as states cut social services, when you think of the global poor who will suffer through this depression are these disgusting excuses for human beings really any less evil than terrorists?
January 29, 2009 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I kid because I want to close Gitmo and I disprove of torture, otherwise your're right. Boehner said we should re-open Alcatraz on Sunday on Meet the Press. Let's throw the CEOs in there!
Now, that's bi-partisanship.
January 29, 2009 8:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gitmo will never close. We've had a point-of-presence on Cuba since the Spanish-American War and Gitmo is the only piece of American territory on the island.
The prison will go, but the base will remain waiting for the next repug president.
January 30, 2009 8:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, but they've lost all of the relevant Supreme Court cases that provided the "lawless black hole beyond habeas corpus" advantage in the first place.
January 30, 2009 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Of course Chase has plenty of capital... they have been the single biggest recipient of taxpayer largesse! GOD! THE AUDACITY!
January 29, 2009 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looking into debt forgiveness may be a good thing to do as well. I think the idea is particularly sound in regards to mortgages and credit cards.
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/business/20081031_Banks_ready_to_forgive_debt.html
A bit off-topic, but I thought I'd throw that out there as well.
January 29, 2009 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Last night, the federal government pumped a $1 billion into the ailing institutions."
I hadn't heard of this until now. Not a good sign. Thanks for informing me of this.
More here:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/28/AR2009012803242.html?nav=rss_business/industries
January 29, 2009 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hate to break it to people, but the U.S. Central Corporate FCU is in trouble because of "mark-to-market adjustments to our portfolio of residential mortgage-backed securities." I'm guessing we've all been around the block enough in this little problem to know what that is.
I also think Cooper is off his rocker on Nationalization. The latest talk, up on CNBC, is that a $4T bank bailout is in the works:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/01/4-trillion-bank-bailout.html
For $4T, we can *buy* the banks (given what they're trading at right now) and have not only the Super Shitpile Toxic Assets, but also the Good Assets of the banks.
I'm not entirely sure why Coop, as a US Taxpayer, thinks we're better off giving Banks $$$ and eating the crap rather than taking them over, eating the crap, and at least having the positive assets remaining.
John
January 29, 2009 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why take any of it? If we're going to have a nationalized bank - let's use our $4 trillion(WTF! That's a mind boggling number) and open our own bank from scratch.
One way or another if we're going to spend that much cash - we damn well better end up owning SOMETHING better than the crap that the banks used to bankrupt themselves. I'll bet these assholes even want the right to foreclose on the homes underlying these assets and keep the real property while leaving us with the loss.
January 30, 2009 1:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's it. Use all the bailout money to create a national solvent bank, buy up all the good assets and let the failed banks eat the toxic assets and die.
Good idea.
January 30, 2009 9:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
SSTA - Super Shitpile Toxic Assets. Sounds more like a new generation of military munitions ordinance designed to annihilate and render an area useless.
January 30, 2009 8:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Credit Atrios/Duncan Black. As far as I can recall, he's the one who coined the term Big Shitpile / Super Shitpile to describe all those worthless assets back in 2007... if not earlier. It was and remains the perfect descripition. Though is "No More Money. All Gone." is a new current favorite of mine.
John
January 30, 2009 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Commonwealth Ed is the local electrical generating utility here in Chicagoland, the biggest in Illinois. They are regulated by the state of Illinois. A couple years ago they were crying poverty over rising costs and wanted price hikes citing earnings of only a few million on hundreds of millions in revenue. Dire predictions of service brownouts, strained reactors, crumbling infrastructure, California 2001 here we come, etc.
In the meantime they were funneling almost all their revenue to Exelon, their parent company, partner, and banker which was fat and happy, billions in the black.
Utilities are fine as long as they are strictly regulated and aren't allowed to run shell games on the public.
January 29, 2009 8:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Matt you can't leave aside the problems Credit Unions have with members who are in trouble on their mortgages, car loans. For instance I don't know if there's a credit union affiliated with Caterpiller in Peoria but after tens of thousands of layoffs yesterday I'd say if they do it immediately made the watch list.
The American consumer is tapped out to begin with. Take away our jobs and watch our payments stop.
January 29, 2009 9:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
So Cooper is the TPM equivalent of "the frigging balance" of the frigging msm ?
Many countries have nationalized banks and are doing well, thank you.
January 29, 2009 9:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for reporting this, Matt.
I honestly don't care if it's called nationalization or heavy regulation; I'll let the ideologues worry about that.
January 29, 2009 10:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well Matt, if you would study up on the divergent paths taken by Japan and Sweden back in the 1990s, you would come to realize that NOT nationalizing the banks is probably our worst choice.
Check it out - google it and get back to us.
January 30, 2009 12:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
"The bad side of this is, of course, we've got the classic problem of private profit and socialized risk that plagues regular banking. That's a messy situation but nationalization, it ain't"
I vote for nationalization, seems a better deal.
January 30, 2009 1:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Liquidate the CEOS!
Liquidate the shareholders!
Liquidate the bondholders!
Clean the rot!
Seriously, the problem here is the moral hazard. In a pure capitalist system, the shareholders and bondholders would be wiped out and the CEOs could be sued for their mistakes. But instead we are forking over billions, trillions oven to these bonus hungry idiots so they can continue to act as parasites on productive labor soaking money from the market and returning nothing Why on earth should we continue with this system?
January 30, 2009 1:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Geithner really wants a yacht?
January 30, 2009 2:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Of course "nationalization" is a "distracting term." It's driving the banksters to distraction because it would mean the end of their taxpayer-financed gravy train.
By contrast with Cooper's obvious economic ignorance, Barry Ritholtz suggests the following:
1. Stop interfering with the Markets! Nationalizing banks isn’t market interference, keeping these mortally wounded banks alive is! Stop pussyfooting around and admit the truth. The market knows it, investors know it.
Let the FDIC do its job. That is:
2. Temporarily Nationalize the Banks We know they are insolvent, and cannot survive without taxpayer money. Spending 150% of their market cap for an 8% share is absurd.
Wipe out the debt, liquidate bad common holders, fire the Board and management, appoint new competent, risk sensitive management. They have 6 months to spin out a 10% stake in each of their holdings, followed by the rest within 5 years (10 at most);
3. Taxpayer owned: Once nationalized, that 10% spin out of the components parts would be in the form of preferred to taxpayers! For BAC, you would spin out Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, Countrywide, plus the “B/A Toxic Holdings I & II” For Citi, it would be Travelers, Citi, Smith Barney, Citi Toxic 1 & 2, etc. [corrected in comments: Citi doesn’t own Travelers and Smith Barney is now part of a partnership with Morgan Stanley.]
4. Now Recapitalize: With the toxic waste off of the books, you can easily recapitalize the banks. Give the old creditors a “sweetheart” deal — they get a 10% stake also, but only if they buy a matching amount in the new bank.
5. Align Compensation with Long Term Profitability: Stop rewarding traders for short term gains despite long term losses. Stop paying taxpayer monies out as dividends. Bonuses must be a function of the long term health of the company — not monthly volatility.
January 30, 2009 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
$1 billion = $700 billion + ????
really??
January 30, 2009 9:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm with Neal.
Wondering whether or not to regulate the banks as harshly as utilities has nothing to do with the nationalization question.
First there is the immediate question of who has to bear the USD 1.8 trillion expected losses on bad loans and toxic securities. It can be entirely 'socialised' by bailing out the shareholders and creditors, letting the tax-payer bear the entire burden. Or the losses can be partially 'privatized' where shareholders get wiped out and creditors take a haircut while the tax-payer bears the remaining losses. This latter option is what we call capitalism! The FDIC seizes banks when they are insolvent and liquidate them. It involves a phase where there is government management of the assets being liquidated, so thereby a form of temporary nationalization. But you have to be somewhat retarded to worry whether this is fundamentally unAmerican.
Second there is the longer-term question of the kind of regulation that should be imposed on the banks. You can worry with Mr. Cooper about what label we should put on their ultimate status. But it is stupid and uninteresting. It is not even a question of the quantity of regulation (heavy or light), but rather a question of the quality of regulation: what kind of criteria are used to evaluative the risk position of a bank (eg. the role of capital requirements and rating agencies, considerations of systemic risk, VaR models, etc).
Noone is proposing that the banks become permanent government owned providers of credit services. Who exactly is Matt Cooper having a debate with?!
All this just to beg someone to get Mr Cooper to write about something he is vaguely familiar with.
January 30, 2009 10:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
I just checked with my local credit union and apparently 20% of their money is invested in the corporate credit union with 80% invested with their members. They are also audited on the state level.
I am very happy that their 20% investment has been guaranteed by the feds. And I know they will be challenged by foreclosures that can't be helped as folks lose jobs and incomes.
So, thank you to the feds! It is becoming increasingly apparent that we'll either be nationalizing our financial sector or heavily regulating it. I don't see much of a GD difference between the two.
I now understand my depression-era grandparents who spent the decades after the depression detesting a lot of things--banks, the GOP, and Wall Street.
January 30, 2009 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink