Poll: 2010 Ohio Senate Race Is Wide Open
The first public poll is out in the 2010 Ohio Senate race, which is expected to be a tight election for the seat of retiring GOP Sen. George Voinovich. Republican former Congressman Rob Portman starts out with an early advantage over three potential Democratic candidates -- but it's not a very solid one at all.
The numbers from Public Policy Polling (D):
• Portman 42%, Sec. of State Jennifer Brunner 34%.
• Portman 41%, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher 39%.
• Portman 40%, Rep. Tim Ryan 34%.
The margin of error is ±4.1%.
Along with the very high undecideds, the internals also show some clear untapped potential for the Dems to catch up. For one thing, the undecided number among self-identified Democrats is higher than for self-identified Republicans in all three heats. And Portman is also registering support among black respondents of over 30%, which is something we never realistically expect to see for a Republican in an actual general election.
In short, it appears that Portman's lead right now owes more to the fact that the Democratic candidates aren't very well known to the voters -- nor is Portman, for that matter, but it helps him that he is the only Republican being tested against three different Democrats.
Josh
Elana
Matt
Eric
Portman is helped out in these poll numbers because he was said to be on the McCain VP shortlist, and that got solid coverage in Ohio. Folks like the idea that a future Presidential contender could possibly come from their State.
January 19, 2009 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can't you all give it a rest? This election is over. As for 2010, wake me up in about 18 months when this may carry some weight.
January 19, 2009 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
PPP has been really inconsistent. Their NY-Sen polls have conflicted with other companies as well.
January 19, 2009 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Depends on how the investigation and trial goes in Ohio about the 2004 election theft. Michael Connell, who was the GOP tech guru for fixing elections was killed in a plane crash in mid-December. The legal action will continue without a key witness, but they have lots of documentation.
The plot will thicken in Ohio before the 2010 election rolls around.
January 19, 2009 8:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I remember hearing about the plane crash, but I haven't seen much reporting on the investigation. Do you have any recommended sources of reporting?
January 19, 2009 8:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
If a strong replacement Democratic candidate can be recruited to run for Secretary of State (an extremely important position, as any observer of the Blackwell-administered 2004 election compared to the 2008 Brunner-administered election can attest), Brunner would be an excellent senate candidate. Portman may have more money and political experience (though his time in the Bush administration is probably a net negative), but Jennifer Brunner has won statewide office has actually won statewide office and would be running on the ticket with popular the popular Gov. Strickland. Rep. Ryan is a regional candidate in an overwhelmingly Democratic district and Lt. Gov. Fisher is old party hack. I like Rep. Betty Sutton, but she only has a couple of years in Congress. Cincinnati Mayor Mallory is a rising star, but probably not in a position to run for the US Senate or governor yet. (Buckeye State Blog suggested that Fisher replace Brunner and Mallory replace Fisher, which would mean a strong incumbent at for S.o.S. and a promising African-American Democrat as Lt. Gov., which could put Ohio Democrats in a strong position. This would be ideal, if a little convoluted.)
For those of you who are tired of election news, don't read it. But this is extremely important.
January 19, 2009 8:26 PM | Reply | Permalink