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California: The End Of Primaries As We Know Them? (And One Crafty GOPer Feels Fine)

It is now quite possible that the political landscape in California, the single largest state in the Union and home to about 12% of the country's population, could undergo a transformation that would drastically change the ideological balance.

And it all comes down to political science. Like most other states, each party in California now holds its own primary to select a standard-bearer for the general election. (The parties are allowed to exclude registered independents.) Democrats always allow the indies in, while Republicans will often keep it closed. Left-wingers often win Dem primaries, and right-wingers win for the GOP.

But in exchange for his vote to pass the budget, moderate Republican state Senator Abel Maldonado demanded and received a provision setting a 2010 referendum to switch to something else called "Top Two," used in Louisiana and Washington state. All candidates run on the same primary ballot, and the top two candidates, regardless of party, advance to a runoff.

So in deep-blue districts there would be two Democrats, and deep-red districts would produce two Republicans. The relatively moderate candidates would then have the edge in those districts, which Maldonado says is needed to improve the legislative process. (In an interesting twist, the office of governor is exempted.)

A previous referendum on this proposal was held in 2004, but it failed 46%-54%. The Dems didn't even remotely want it this time -- Maldonado forced it in exchange for his budget vote.

I spoke to Bob Mulholland, campaign advisor for the California Dems, and he laid out for me just how much he's opposed to this: "Why are we spending a trillion dollars so the Iraqis can have multiple parties to choose from, and we ourselves in California say we're gonna make a system where maybe there'll be only one party to choose from."

Mulholland accused Maldonado of doing this for his own ambitions -- he was first elected in an open primary in 1998, attracting Hispanic voters, and could pull off the same trick statewide in a future run if the GOP were prevented from closing off a primary. "I always gotta remind people when you're looking at reform," Mulholland said, "don't let a person's political agenda or a candidates' political agenda change the equation."

Calls to Maldonado's office were not returned.

So imagine a California with this system. They already have some moderates like Dianne Feinstein and Arnold Schwarzenegger, but most other pols are big-time partisans. The new California would produce a very different politics -- and with 12% of Americans living in California, and an enormous economic footprint, that would make a huge impact on the rest of us.

Nate Silver has a fun name for it: "Land of a thousand Liebermans."

So Maldonado has gotten his referendum, but he can count on a lot of resistance at the actual vote in 2010.


39 Comments

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I spoke to Bob Mulholland, campaign advisor for the California Dems, and he laid out for me just how much he's opposed to this: "Why are we spending a trillion dollars so the Iraqis can have multiple parties to choose from, and we ourselves in California say we're gonna make a system where maybe there'll be only one party to choose from."

You'd still have many parties and candidates to choose from in the "primary stage" where you go about choosing the top two. It will lead to the more moderate of the top two always winning though as the other party will always vote the lesser of their perceived "two evils" - just like the republicans voted in Conn, choosing to vote for Lieberman over Lamont.

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Open primaries do not produce stronger median voter outcomes.

They do what they did in Louisiana - they divide strengthen the weaker party by dividing the dominant party's vote

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Minor disagreement, they favor the party that is more disciplined, the republican party. Depending on the situation, the republicans will put up candidates to dilute the dem voters to hopefully wedge in a conservative wacko. The party whose candidates march to the tune of the party will be favored in such a system, and that party is the republican party.

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if the top two vote is supplemented further by the use of a pr-stv voting system where people can cast more than one vote then it won't be so bad.

dlw

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Lieberman was the lesser of two evils to Republicans?

Which were the evils, Jonze? Ned Lamont, or Alan Schlesinger?

Given that there were three candidates in the GE in 2006 here in CT, I'm not sure your analogy holds.

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GOP knew Schlesinger didn't have a chance. If they voted for him Lamont would have won, so they decided to back Lieberman knowing that their vote, along with the staunch Lieberman supporters could be enough to effect the election and they settled for the centrist.

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"Centrist" as defined by Republicans.

Way to buy into wingnut talking points.

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let's just say it changes the dynamics...

now what we really need is to incorp the use of PR into the state assembly via an additional referendum: Project Democratic Renewal.

dlw

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California has been screwed up every since they started with these stupid referrendums. Prop 13 which limits property tax is responsible for the dismal public school system. And we all know about Prop 8.

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Now that I can agree with 1000 percent. They should do a proposition banning propositions. Generally, the most controversial are incredibly poorly worded and put on the ballot when most people aren't voting, like in a primary or off year election. Proposition 13 was passed on June 6, 1978, the primary date for an off year election. How many people actually voted for that one? Not many. Also, the signatures to get a proposition on the ballot are bought and paid for. It's an outrageous scam that has totally screwed up the state horribly and makes the state almost impossible to govern in a rational manner.

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Talk about red herrings!

What CA needs is a consitutional amendment repealing the 2/3 requirement to pass a budget, then we wouldn't have to worry about the Maldanado's of the world holding up the real work of government..

Oh yeah, it takes a 2/3 vote of the legislature to put a 2/3 budget vote repeal on the ballot

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Most Californians I know (a very small and probably unrepresentative sample) seem to derive a perverse entertainment from the chaos. They think other states' politics are boring.

But, from here, California looks like the world's largest failing state and they need to call a constitutional convention and reboot their whole governmental structure. Scrap the current constiution and all fifteen thousand amendments and finally admit that initiative, referendum and recall are bad ideas.

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When it comes to totally F'ed up state constitutions, Alabama's takes the cake.

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Absolutely correct. The state's government is totally screwed up and inefficient from the local all the way through sacramento. It is complete chaos and a large part of the chaos goes back to proposition 13. The local governments have to go to the state to get operating funds to run local entities because of the property tax problem. People living in multimillion dollar mansions pay less in property taxes than new home buyers. The schools are funded in large part through the state because of proposition 13 and then there was a proposition mandating a certain percentage of the state budget has to go to education????? It is a complete and utter cluster-f*ck.

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As a recovering Californian (I moved to Florida, so no rest for the wicked...), I think it's important to chronicle the stages of Californian politics:

1. unfamiliarity
2. amazement
3. incredulity
4. anger
5. frothing-at-the-mouth, homicidal fury
6. disgust
7. apathy
8. denial
9. perverse amusement

Some people go through a phase after #4 where they get involved in politics. I think this involves brain damage of some kind, but I'm not sure.

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I like it! You should copywright this.

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As someone who recently moved to California I find this roadmap very helpful. I am currently stuck between 4 and 5 with the occasional relapse to 3 just to maintain my sanity. Now that I know what to expect I can continue with my journey.

Thank You.

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The folks who gave us Prop 13 and associated "reforms" ensured that CA would be ungovernable. If you can't govern, you can't raise taxes, and not raising taxes is the whole point.

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test

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I hope that Californians vote this awful "reform" down.

We have the top two primary here in Washington State. All it does is limits voters' choices in the general election.

In most districts, the winners of the "first round", aka primary, were a Democrat and a Republican. Because this was well known beforehand, a lot less people voted in the primary. The primary effectively became meaningless.

In several districts in Seattle, we had two Democrats running in the general election, while in parts of Eastern Washington, there were two Republicans running.

Another unintended consequence was that fewer third party candidates ran, since they had no hopes of making it to the general election.

It's a horrible idea and I hope that the citizens have the good sense to vote it down.

http://horsesass.org/?p=5888

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2008090015_thirdparty04m.html

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Would it make a diff if people were allowed to vote for like three of the primary candidates and some of the state elections were decided with the use of proportional representation?

dlw

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... and I feel fine...

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All it does is limits voters' choices in the general election.

Well, then, this is the soundbite to use.

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fight fire w fire...

ie, support an additional initiative that would subvert the intent of this one...

http://anewkindofparty.blogspot.com/2008/08/initiative-for-most-people-and-polemic.html

dlw

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So imagine a California with this system. They already have some moderates like Dianne Feinstein and Arnold Schwarzenegger,

By what definition is Dianne Feinstein a "moderate"? Can a strong liberal philosophy really be mitigated that far by selling out to corporate interests in Hollywood?

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Yes

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Personally, I like this style much better than the current party-aligned primary system. I have never understood why our government spends so much money running an election for ostensibly private organizations. Now, if political parties wanted to hold their own elections, and only promote the winner in the election, I don't think there's much the state could do about it.

I also think this could help third-party candidates. Because the primary vote remains a free vote, in that it doesn't actually control who wins the election, people can vote for third-party candidates even if they are registered Democrats or Republicans. Or just to show displeasure with the big two. And a third-party candidate doesn't have to win a plurality to get to the general election, just come in second. So I think it should be easier to get second in the primary and then win a majority in the general election.

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why try to argue the pros and cons?

isnt it enough to just state the obvious?

that the entire government and with a few rare exceptions ,all elected officials in this country are totally corrupt.

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It's not that easy to define what "totally" corrupt means, but there sure is way too much kleptocracy...

dlw

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I completely disagree with the premise that this would lead to a lot of runoffs between members of the same party. In most districts, the majority party does not have the support of two-thirds of primary voters, so a candidate who receives solid support from the minority party is more likely to finish second in the blanket primary than the second-strongest candidate of the majority party.

I also agree with the point just made that the taxpayers are forced to spend millions of dollars so that the members-only organization known as the Republican party can conduct its primaries without incurring the expense of doing so.

What this does is disestablish the Republican Party as an automatic alternative in every general election. It would have to fight the Greens, Libertarians, and others for access to the November ballot. And while I would prefer the instant runoff system to this, I still think that this might be an improvement over the current system, where Republicans are given a ballot line rather than having to earn it, and where candidates can be elected with a minority of the vote case, as long as they get one more vote than anyone else.

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It won't do anything of the sort! Enfranchise the Greens? Please. How many of those are members of say, the SF Board of Supervisors (RANKedCHOICE VOTING!!!)?

It will do what it did in LA. I was there when it happened. It allows the GOP to field a single strong candidate in bluish districts while the Dems destroy each other in the primary

The converse will for the most part not be true at least for a while because the GOP is so ideologically pure.

It is a red herring designed to create post partisan smokescreen before voter outrage which otherwise might, should be directed at solving the problem which causes these budget crises and spending cut sprees every year - the 2/3 budget vote requirement

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The rub is to recognize that the ideological purity of the Republican party in CA stems from the combination of the use of closed first-past-the-post primaries and first-past-the-post state elections. If you change these election systems, the party will have to adapt to become less ideologically pure.

Besides, is it unreasonably to believe that tensions between social and economic conservatives in the Republican party will get worse, thus undercutting their currently superior party-discipline?
dlw

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You didn't read what I wrote about what actually occurred in Washington State, did you?

In most districts, in the general election, there was a Democrat and a Republican. In a few districts there were two Democrats and in a few districts there were two Republicans.

There were less third party candidates. This type of an election shuts out third parties.

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why not complement the initiative w. another initiative incorporating pr-stv(similar to irv) in the primary elections?

dlw

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Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, head of his party in the Golden State, is taking a pass on the big spring GOP convention in Sacramento this weekend -- where, let's face it, the long knives are out for him -- to meet with President Obama in the nation's capital.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/sfgate/detail?blogid=14&entry_id=36080&tsp=1

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Top Two strikes me as complete trash. It would rule out third party candidates in the main election and it interferes with political party structure.

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The problem isn't just plurality voting (which is what we have in the USA). Personally speaking, the least worst system would be some form of Condorcet voting. However, the real problem lies in that we have gerrymandering, and only have single-member districting, and no multimember districting (with proportional representation) at both the state and federal level. I'm not saying we should get rid of single member districting, but that we should have both single-member districting AND multi-member districting.

1. Gerrymandering
2. Lack of effectively selecting a true majority winner in single-member districts
3. Lack of Multi-Member districting (along a few things that should go with it, such as proportional representation)

Top Two Primary system only attempts to solve the second one. If the districts are gerrymandered, Top Two primaries will only guarantee the majority party to become the top two in both spots. And even if the districts are non-gerrymandered, I'm not sure top two primaries are the best way to find a majority vote, along with the fact that it doesn't really solve the inherent weaknesses of single-member districts.

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Aye, so perhaps the best defense is a good offense?
http://anewkindofparty.blogspot.com/2008/08/initiative-for-most-people-and-polemic.html

dlw

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Maldonado: cheap political stunt

Just heard another on CB5 SF. Sen Maldonado huffed and puffed and got 1 million taken out of the budget for new furniture for the State Controller's Office.

Trouble is that the new furniture was meant for a new office that the controller cannot now move into.

Cost of staying in OLD Office?

4 million

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