Minnesota Court Opens Door To Counting More Votes -- And Who Will Benefit Is Not Yet Known
We're really now in crunch-time in Minnesota, with the court handing down one important ruling after another -- and they just did it again.
The court has released a new order, co-signed with the consent of both sides' lawyers, to deal with the problem of what have come to be known as "3-A" ballots -- a category where a newly-registering absentee voter included their registration form inside the internal secrecy envelope containing the ballot, rather than immediately within the outer envelope as it was supposed to be done.
When the ballots arrived during the election, many counties rejected them because of a failure to register to vote. But other areas would open up those secrecy envelopes, with the election workers staying blind to the actual vote inside, and feel around for a registration card in order to help get that vote counted.
The court has now commanded the counties to open the ballots on a long list of potential 3-A's -- a little bit over 1,500 envelopes -- to look for registration cards, and to organize a full listing of ballots with complete registrations, incomplete registrations or no form at all, and to get the job done by this Wednesday.
The ballots with valid registrations are not being counted yet -- but this is the first step in getting there.
So who would stand to benefit from this?
We don't know who would benefit, due to the lack of further knowledge about which ballots will actually get in, but there are some clues.
As I've observed before, it appears that Al Franken would be the more likely beneficiary of counting these. First of all, everyone would agree at this point that Franken won the total absentee ballots by roughly 8-10 points. Second, a newly-registering voter is often a first-time voter, and the exit poll showed Al winning that demographic 52%-34%. So this could be a Franken-leaning subset within what is already a Franken-leaning sample.
Furthermore, many of the counties who already included these votes during the election were deep-red areas, with Democratic areas potentially making up a disproportionate share of the total 3-A's in existence. For example, over 20% of the list of ballots that the court has asked to have examined came from Ramsey County (St. Paul), which went for Franken 52%-34%, while Ramsey only made up less than 10% of the total statewide vote.
But again, this is all a gamble. We don't know how many of the possible 3-A's are actually valid 3-A's with completed registration forms. After Wednesday, we might have a better idea of what the pool of unopened votes will look like.
















Coleman definitely benefits more from this, both because he has successfully opened the door to further ballots being counted and because he has little to lose with any ballots being counted because he's behind and if no new ballots are counted then he has no chance.
These ballots didn't follow the instructions and were thus rightly rejected. Now they're being judged on a different standard, meaning other categories can be judged on a different standard.
This just opened up a can of worms for Franken and the Court.
February 26, 2009 6:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not sure I agree. I don't know if the requirement that it be in the outer envelope rather than the inner envelope is in the statute (I don't think so) or how clear the rules are. It seems like this is an administrative procedure to ensure the secrecy of the ballot rather than a statutory rule to guard against vote fraud. It seems that, in this instance, the right to vote would trump the secret ballot privilege held by the voter. Why couldn't the voter waive the secret ballot privilege to ensure their right to vote? I don't think that this necessarily opens up the door to flexibility on the other statutory vote-fraud protections.
February 26, 2009 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well those who's signatures didn't match weren't following the rules and their votes were not counted. These folks didn't follow the instructions and yet their votes might be counted. Franken better hope that the Judges change their mind on this ruling tomorrow.
February 26, 2009 7:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I totally disagree. Those are statutory protections against vote fraud. I do not think the issue of in which envelope the same day registration card is located rises to the same level. This rule is not for the benefit of the electoral process; it is for the benefit of the voter. As such, the voter's right to vote should trump a rule that is for the voter's benefit.
February 26, 2009 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
The rules are meant to prevent fraudulent ballots, not to make legitimate voters jump through hoops. If they can count a ballot with the circle incompletely filled in they can count a ballot with the card on the inside of the envelope.
February 26, 2009 8:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you can put your card in with the ballot, the an election worker could potentially see how you voted. If it's possible to check your vote, it's possible for you to sell your vote, because the buyer can check, or to be intimidated. It's a very long shot that the election worker will be corrupt or that the right election worker will get your envelope, but it's just a fail-safe.
Both candidates had an interest in opening these, Coleman because he's throwing a Hail Mary, Franken because absentee and new voters both favored him, and the areas that already opened the secrecy envelopes lean Republican. However, I do see a problematic precedent with letting a rule slide.
February 26, 2009 10:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Winning one motion is just that- winning one motion. Each motion has it's merits or lack their of. Winning one doesn't mean the others are any more meritorious. Quite the opposite with Coleman's bogus claims. Furthermore, if Franken was doing the appealing he would be trying for this very same batch- and has co-signed the order on this motion to that effect.
February 26, 2009 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
The republican stands to benefit; Republicans are better are following instructions, which Democrats can't seem to manage.
In any event, let the votes be counted! voter's intent can clearly be determined --- so what if the voters were stupid (and I'm not saying they were), is the vox populi.
BTW I'm a Democrat.
February 26, 2009 7:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
. . . Norm Coleman used to be a Democrat too. 1,2,T---why don't you follow Norm's example?
February 26, 2009 7:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with your assessment, Eric. This should benefit Franken and by quite a bit. Thanks, Norm!
February 26, 2009 8:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are there any estimates of how many 3-A ballots there are and how many might contain valid registration cards?
February 26, 2009 8:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why, Eric, of course! Bigger Bonus for Eric! ;)
February 26, 2009 8:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me thinks, the Judges are tired of the BS...and are now willing to move forward.
We must realize that the majority on the court are non-democrat appointees.
February 26, 2009 9:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Walter remember the elections officials missed the mark on this issue, some counted them and some did not. The judges had little choice but to certify one procedure in its ruling.
February 26, 2009 10:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would amagine by now the judges all have their own negative impression of Coleman and his team and would just as soon get all of this over with and hope and prey that Coleman does not win.
February 26, 2009 10:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here are the instructions for non-registered absentee ballots - http://www.sos.state.mn.us/docs/2008_ab_instructions_-_non-registered_voter.pdf
It does not explicitly state that the Voter Registration Application (VRA) should go outside the secrecy envelope in step 6. Step 7 says that both the VRA and the secrecy envelope goes into the ballot return envelope. If the VRA is in the secrecy envelope, then that would mean that they are both being placed into the ballot return envelope.
Also, election officials have testified that in previous elections, absentee voters often put the VRA into the secrecy envelope.
February 27, 2009 2:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Can this drag on forever?
What event could possibly cause this to have some sort of definitive conclusion?
February 27, 2009 4:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Coleman has unfortunate accident in small plane. Oh I forgot: Only Democrats seem to die in small plane crashes. That's just so odd. And unfair.
February 27, 2009 8:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Franken is declared the ultimate winner at some future date and is inducted into the Senate on, say, March 20, will his term end on March 20, 6 years hence or will he term be less than a full 6 years?
February 27, 2009 7:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
The term is running. It is the senator's job (and the states') to get there on time.
But you really knew that in your heart. Frustratin' ain't it?
February 27, 2009 8:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
fpie,
actually, no, I didn't know that.
February 27, 2009 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
If these are "newly-registering absentee voter[s]" then it surely helps Franken because these people would largely be Obama people.
February 27, 2009 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
At which point Coleman will do ANOTHER 180 and insist that these ballots should NOT be counted.
February 27, 2009 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
CNN BULLETIN: Norm Coleman petitions the court to throw out all votes that went for Franken.
February 27, 2009 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink