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Obama's F 22 Decision

If you're interested in the question of whether Barack Obama can change the culture of Washington, one of the things worth looking at is the lobbying efforts over the F 22 Raptor. The decision of what to do with this fighter aircraft is one of the more important defense procurement questions the administration will face. And, like all defense issues, it's wrapped up in politics especially in a deep recession when jobs are scarce and good-aying jobs are even scarcer.

Some background: Over decades, weapons systems have taken on a life of their own and proven hard to halt even when the Pentagon is ambivalent about having them. My former TIME colleague, Mark Thompson, a veteran defense correspondent, has, for instance, written at length about the problems bedeviling the V-22 Osprey aircraft and why, despite its woes, billions have been pumped into the project.

When it comes to the F 22 Raptor, the administration is facing a March 1 deadline to decide how many more F22s to order. Lockheed is supposed to deliver the last of the current batch of 181 on order in 2011. The argument against ordering still more F22s is that the Pentagon already has a similar aircraft, the F 35 Joint Strike fighter online and, besides, the more pressing issue for the U.S. is not air superiority in a conventional war but rooting out terrorists in the Khyber Pass. The Air Force has indicated that it would like a total of 381 but several senior Pentagon officials, including Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, have hinted that they'd like far fewer if not to put the kabosh on the program entirely. The Pentagon "has not demonstrated the need or value for making further investments" in the plane, the Government Accountability Office found.

So not surprisingly there's a lot of lobbying going on to keep the F 22 rolling. Northrop and Lockheed Martin are lobbying heavily to keep the plane in production and there's a large press availability this week where reporters can sit in simulators and learn all about the 95,000 jobs the plane's advocates say are at state. Any state where there's work related to the Raptor is lobbying for it. "With rising unemployment, we need to make sure that we're not making a knee-jerk reaction and we keep this program going strong," Keith Scott, president of the Baltimore County Chamber of Commerce told the Baltimore Sun. Our point is, No. 1, this preserves jobs, and No. 2, it is immediate. You don't have to develop anything," Lawson said. "This is 'shovel ready.' "

According to the Los Angeles Times, the F-22 program is directly responsible for 25,000 jobs at Bethesda, Md.-based Lockheed Martin and its major suppliers. But Lockheed officials say when jobs from sub-suppliers are added in, the F-22 program maintains 95,000 jobs in 44 states. Among the firms helping Lockheed in Washington is Public Strategies, home to George W. Bush media adviser Mark McKinnon. In Congress, prominent senators from Ted Kennedy to Judd Gregg to Dianne Feinstein signed a letter back in January urging then President Elect Obama to keep the F22 going. Not surprisingly there's a website, www.preserveraptorjobs.com that's just part of the lobbying campaign being waged by the Lockheed, Boeing and other suppliers of the jet fighter. We'll know soon whether their efforts have been successful.


66 Comments

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Oh! That Matt Cooper. I didn't realize.

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Seems odd so much is being spent on one aircraft as well as the ton of cash to lobby for its acceptance. The US hasn't had a new fighter-type aircraft since the F-15/F-16/F-18/A-10 era - that's mid 70s to late 70's. There's only two major aircraft manufacturer left - Lockheed and Boeing - the rest have be sucked into the vacuum of history.

The F-35 has had its share of setbacks too so its questionable - too many roles/hats to wear. It's not dedicated to a specific role, like the F-22 - its a multitasking aircraft which can be fitted to perform a variety of tasks well, but limited in performing any one task due to the limitations imposed by its multitasking roll. That makes it an easy target if attacked by a dedicated aircraft designed for a specific role.

Future US air power an be summed up as too much bang for the buck and all our eggs are in one basket.

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There's only two major aircraft manufacturer left - Lockheed and Boeing - the rest have be sucked into the vacuum of history.

When did Northrop-Grumman go out of business?

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I think "changing the culture of Washington" is far less important and less relevant to the President right now than righting the Economic ship. If we need to order a couple useless Raptors to save some jobs, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, nor would it be conclusive evidence of Obama's failure to "change the culture".


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I guess what I'm getting at is that in this Economy, given the jobs at stake, it is going to be next to impossible to make a sensible decision on the Raptor.

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The only issue I have is at what cost? Those ridiculous planes are so incredibly expensive that its costing a ton of money to save a few jobs. Cancel the program and divert the funds to infrastructure and green energy spending. You get more "bang" for your buck that way.

They should shelve anymore aircraft carriers as well and mothball 1/2 of them. Talk about a target in a real shooting war. A couple of exocets and sayonara. What a waste of lives and trillions of dollars. Throw in the worthless b-1 as well. Mothball it. Pathetic.

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I think there are some guys in Afghanistan who would question your assessment of the utility of the B-1.

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I seriously doubt that a laser guided bomb from a b-1 is any different from a laser guided bomb from an f-15. I personally like the carpet bombing capabilities of the b-52 myself. Talk about shock and awe.

I am not anti-spending money on weapons systems. It's just stupid expenditures, which make no sense. Sure work on the r&d and make new systems that can be put in production in the future if necessary. I submit though that today the threats we face do not require the ridiculous expenditures that we are making.

The f-22 and f-35 are so costly in part because of the stealth technology associated with the aircraft. Is that really necessary right now? How many radar systems do the terrorists have? We have Jdams to knock out radar systems in the countries that we might have to attack. They do not have advanced capabilities and we still have the nuclear deterrant for the big threats.

One last point, I traveled extensively in the former soviet union immediately prior to its collapse. There was no way that that former country was the threat that it was made out to be. We wasted trillions and trillions of dollars for nothing. We need to get this spending under a modicum of control.

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How many radar systems do the terrorists have?

Don't know. But I heard in 2002 the Ukrainians started building radar systems for $30,000 a pop that can detect F-117s and B-2s. Whether the arms race marches on or not it doesn't pay to blow billions on weapons systems if the competition can counter them for tens of thousands.

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Yep. I agree. Same thing with the stupid carriers. How much does it cost for a couple of exocets vs. the cost of a carrier that can be blown to smitherines from ten miles away or more by an exocet?

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I think carrier counter measures these days against incoming missiles are a lot better than they used to be. I doubt an Exocet or even the latest Russian iterations of those missiles could touch one of our carriers. Now rocket powered torpedoes are another matter.

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I just used the exocet as an example. What is the next generation of a dime missle that can hit a target the size of a freaking city from 20 miles or more? It's not hard to come up with such a missle to hit such a huge target that is basically a sitting duck. Carriers are the epitomy of wasteful and dangerous military spending. Not only the money, but the lives. 5000 kids as sitting ducks? Outrageous.

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I think that I missed the joke, it's the b-2 that I meant.

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What's the total cost of the Raptor program?

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Incidentally, our biggest military enemies right now have how many radar stations and strike fighters that we need to deal with? How many long range bombers with fighter support and tanker capabilities? How big are their navies and amphibious assault capabilities? Answer to all: NONE.

This is sooo freaking outrageous it isn't even funny anymore. We are broke as a country and we are worrying about buying more expensive and useless toys? Unbelievable.

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As much as all good liberals would like weapons procurement decisions to be cut and dried--and mostly cut--I respectfully suggest its not that simple. Development lead-times for fighters have become so long since the 50s that the threat and capabilities of your current, or currently foreseeable, enemies are irrelevant. American war fighting doctrine depends upon air superiority. If we don't have air superiority, we lose the next war and, alas, much as many Americans, going back to Thomas Jefferson, might wish it were so, you can't forestall the next war by making yourself seem weak and unthreatening. You can only lose it that way.

This is a decision about what our cababilities will be through 2025, easy. We have no way of predicting what threats, or combination of threats, will present themselves through then. What we can be reasonably sure of is that the Russians aren't going to stop designing great new planes of their own and selling them to people who don't like us.

Granted, spending ourselves into oblivion now is also a sure way to lose the next war, but I can't help but remember how Pat Schroeder, just by way of example, decried and ridiculed every new weapons system that came along throughout her tenure on the HASC as overbudget, unworkable, too big a target, too complex, yada yada yada, and, in case after case, those systems were decisive when the crap hit the fan. From the M-1 tank, to the F-15, to AWACs and JSTAR and damn near every other system that eventually proved its worth, the list goes on and on.

All that ranted, its absurd for Lockheed-Martin to fail to see that the F-22 and the F-35 are a zero sum game at this point. Any money spent on extra F-22s is going to come out of F-35 producation in this environment, and, in either case, their bottom line doesn't change (unless one is more profitable than the other).

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alas, much as many Americans, going back to Thomas Jefferson, might wish it were so, you can't forestall the next war by making yourself seem weak and unthreatening.

Right. We already spend more on "defense" than the rest of the world COMBINED, over ten times as much as our closest national competitors, France and the PRC, more than twice as much as the EU combined; we have close to 6,000 operational nuclear warheads out of nearly 10,000 intact total, and an unknown amount of chemical and biological weapons, so cuts to one weapons system that not even the SecDef wants any more -- or, horrors, maybe even two -- is going to make us look weak and unthreatening. Got it.

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The F-22 and F-35 are both overpriced delicate flowers, and both programs should be cancelled.

We'd get a helluva lot more actual use (and four times as many planes) out of spending a quarter of the money building a fleet of upgraded F-15s and F-18s with modern avionics and fire control, and another quarter doing the same thing with A-10 Warthogs for close air ground support.

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If anybody is interested Mark Boden penned a Paean to the F-22 in this month's atlantic. Its pretty over the top in its bias, but a good read nonetheless.

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This wild-eyed liberal hopes we keep the F-22. We are so spoiled on having air superiority that we forget just how important it is to control the skies above the battlefield. The F-22 is light-years ahead of anything the Russians or Chinese can deploy. So buy it now, build it now and let them waste time and money trying to catch up. If you think about it that way - it actually is somewhat cost-effective.

To continue to try to compete with aging F-15s isn't really feasible.
And the F-35 is a piece of crap. Let's ditch it. (And that #($*ing V-22 while we're at it.) Keep the F-16, F-18 and A-10, build the F-22.

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Nah. The f-16 and f-18 can take any plane on the planet right now and for probably the next twenty years or so. Especially against any real threats, as opposed to hypothetical threats from mars or something. We should dump them all in the pipeline right now. Work on r&d obviously and plan for something in the next twenty years that is cost-effective and gets the job done. Why in the world isn't there any planning? I don't get it.

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The fighter jocks rule the USAF. They want to preserve their exclusive hold on "the right stuff." So long as they do that, they get to maintain the reins of power in the USAF. They know what happened to the bomber boys (who used to rule the roost in the USAF) when the ballistic missiles came in. The bomber crowd (SAC, that is) were slowly demoted in the pecking order and the program priorities. None of this is related to actual military needs. It's all person at this point.

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If I follow your logic, we don't need to build anymore of the F-22 Raptures. Our potential enemies know what they're capable of doing so they'll be wasting time and treasure trying to catch up with the planes we already have deployed. Why waste money on more targets?

I say "targets" because our potential enemies will not waste time and treasure on building a Rapture wannabe. They'll spend it on building super-capable armed uncrewed combat air vehicles. Why build a vehicle limited to about 11g maneuvers when UCAVs can achieve 35g and outfly any crewed airframe we put in the air? If we were smart, we'd abandon the Rapture and move over to UCAVs too. They'd certainly make much more sense for the ground-attack role over "Indian country" like the Afghan-Pakistani border area where losing a pilot can produce all sorts of bad political ramifications.

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Good point. Also, I would throw in the fact that the chinese own us economically already, so what money are they wasting? Their biggest weapon is calling in the markers, not building a stupid airplane to counter a stupid airplane. On this one, I guarantee that the chinese do not give two sh*ts about the capabilities of the raptor, nor do the russians. If it's not clear, the chinese own us, what do they care?

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How about converting them to corporate executive jets? Then the CEO's could say they were doing favors for the nation's labor force by purchasing them? Just a thought.

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I was an investment banker to the defense industry, so hardly a dove. Nevertheless, I think the discussion of the F22 starts and stops with, "Who's the enemy?" For counter-insurgency, you need close air support, for which the F22 is completely unsuited. For air superiority over second or third tier adversaries, the F35 is fine. Against China, the problem is access - we are simply not going to get close enough to make air/air combat relevant. It's a great plane, but I don't see a role for it. If a role emerges in the next twenty to thirty years, let's revisit the issue then. For now, save the money. As for the jobs, most of them can be redeployed to a proper F35 program that allows us to replace our very aged F16 fleet.

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Is the f-35 that cost effective? I don't know about that.

The f-16 is more than capable of dealing with all threats that we currently face. The iranians have f-14's in major disrepair. What do the korean's have? Old f-21's? Somalia? Sudan? Nah, I agree on the question "who is the enemy"? Right now we need troops, helicopters, and ground attack craft, which we have. The f-22 and I submit the f-35 is completely unnecessary and a waste of money. Put the money in body armor and anti-roadside bomb vehicles, not a stupid toy. My friend's son-in-law was deployed to iraq and they didn't even have body armor for him. That's more freaking important than a stupid airplane.

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I agree with your basic point, but those F16s are getting pretty creaky - wing cracks, metal fatigue, etc. Like a car, you can only use it so long before it just wears out. I plan to keep our mighty Hyundai for at least ten years, but those plains have been around for around thirty years.

As to the body armour, my view is that people should be going to jail for that. The failure to supply is, in my semi-educated view, literally criminal. One of my best friends, who worked in DoD under Rumsfeld, reporting directly to Wolfowitz and still calling himself a neo-con, thinks exactly the same way - there are (or were)people in DoD who should be wearing orange jumpsuits and worrying about dropping their soap in the showers. I mean, c'mon, by DoD standards, the cost of the ceramic plates is chump change! Same thing for IED resistent vehicles, and on and on...

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What a damn minute, here you are making sensible points and wisely priotizing resources and you claimed to work in the defense industry. Something doesn't smell right.

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I agree with NC Steve but I also hear what you guys are saying about spending cost. That said whether we like or not many of our fighter planes have become too costly to keep in the air simply because their air-frames have lived their life. I am sure you guys might have read about the F-15's being grounded across the country (not the story about the crash) but apparently the cost maintaning these aircraft is significant and more risky simply based on the age of the aircraft. Many of these planes are falling apart. So we need some serious questions answered in regards to the long term strategic goals of our defense precurement programs. I agree that the types of battlefield's we face in modern times does not really demand many of the weapon systems we have developed. I think there needs to be some cross-over between energy, water purification, building technologies and defense spending based simply on the enormous amount of capital already being spent on defense. Back to the F-22, I think they will probably not buy the 381 (this seems prudent given todays circumstances), they will work to get the F-35 delivered (but the US has ponied up much of the money it owes because you have to remember the F-35 JSF is a NATO plane as well, and I believe besides the normal delays in production the other NATO countries have not filled there share of the piggy bank yet) but maybe 10 years from now. Flying planes and training pilots is expensive and I would imagine going forward that the amount of actual pilots who fly will be decreased while the number of drone pilot's will be increased. So there will be plenty of business for these companies going forward but a different kind of business, maybe one more adept to the times we live in.

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Since there are some military people on this thread, I have an off topic question. Why on earth do we have aircraft carriers? What purpose do they serve other than a floating air base? Why do we need that in the age of mid-air refueling? What big navy are we going against? I really don't understand why we keep building so many of them, especially when they can be taken out by a single missle. It totally defies logic to me.

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A carrier battle group cuts down on time in transit and recycle time rather dramatically. It will always take less time to fly 800 miles than 3,000, would you not agree?

Problem is, it's a big target for a Sunburn missile. China's been working hard on those.

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True. In asia, we have japan. In europe, we have now eastern european countries. In the middle east, we have Qatar, Turkey, Kuwait, Egypt, Isreal, Jordan, Iraq (not for long), and Saudi Arabia. Again, they are incredibly costly and totally worthless as far as I can tell. Plus they are an incredibly huge target with lots of lives on the line. How many carriers does china or russia have? Just wondering. Talk about a gd freaking waste of money. Pathetic.

The imperial japanese navy ceased to exist long ago. Remember the nazis sold italy as their aircraft carrier in the mediteranian. Same concept. Send them to the mothballs where they belong.

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Some people think we have them because we are still preparing to fight the last war. Against the Imperial Japanese Navy. Otherwise they are used to project power.

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Aside from their mobility, an aircraft carrier can sit in international waters, not beholden to the whims of some "friendly" middle east or eastern European country. Land bases are not immune from attack, either. One well placed missile on a runway can ruin your whole day.

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Couple of points:

1. How long does it take for a carrier to sail from san diego to the persian gulf compared to a fighter wing flying to a base there? Alot quicker to fly there, right?

2. It's a hell of alot cheaper to fill a hole in a landing strip then deal with a carrier on the bottom of the ocean, notwithstanding the 5,000 or so dead american kids. I'd take an airbase over a carrier any day.

3. If the threat is real and there, we won't have a problem getting basing rights. No way. How much trouble did bush I have in getting planes to saudi arabia when saddam invaded kuwait? Not much. It's not an issue of whim, it's an issue of not being jackasses.

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We have carriers for precisely the reason you mentioned: a floating air base. The U.S. Navy is able to project massive power into areas where land bases - and therefore mid-air refueling - are impractical.

As to the original question - I should also say, I'd like to see the F-22 built because it advances the overall science of aeronautics. It's the latest and greatest.
Translation: It's reeeeally frickin' cool.
I know that seems like a glib answer, but look at it this way:
We need "shovel-ready" projects.
We need to maintain air superiority.
F-22 does both.
Do we need 381 of them? No. But if you read that Atlantic article, other nations are catching up with F-15. Let's blow 25 years past them with F-22 and provide a lot of jobs in the bargain. NOTE: F-22 should not, not not come at the expense of a single flak vest or up-armored vehicle. It should come at the expense of F-35. If you have command of the skies, an A-10 still does an outstanding job of close air support.

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I'm not interested in fighting the war of the worlds. That was fiction. We don't need another freaking cool airplane. I think the f-16 and f-18 are really freaking cool and they are paid for. Let's work on r&d to develop a flying saucer. That would be cool and less expensive than pissing more money away on a worthless and unnecessary airplane.

The a-10 is an awesome plane as well. How much did they cost before they shut down the program? No planning and pissing away money is what I see.

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For what it's worth and it explains some perspective, I traveled in the Soviet Union extensively before it collapsed. I grew up with the bs coming from the right about the red scare and we have to spend trillions to defend western europe and put in mid-range pershings in europe to deal with the threat of the big bad ol bear.

Folks it all was a blatant lie. We wasted trillions on nothing for 50 years. Eisenhower was right that our biggest enemy was the military industrial complex not the russians. They couldn't even feed their people, let alone supply an offensive into western europe. When I was there if you went 5 minutes outside the major citiesm you were in the stone age. It was pathetic and we were afraid? Of what? And our politicians didn't go to the soviet union and take a gd train from moscow to st. petersburg and see the countryside???? I completely doubt it. We were lied to to build f-22 raptors and ballistic missles and b-2 bombers and freaking gd carriers and all this other bullsh*t. It was all a lie and bullsh*t. The homeless people allegedly trying to blow up the sears tower were more of a threat to us then the old Soviet Union.

And then when I hear all these glory mongers about the b-f*n-movie actor and how he won the cold war????? WTF. The country was falling apart long before he was governor of california. We were lied to for generations. No more pissing away money on the military industrial complex.

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One Exocet? You've confused a destroyer with an aluminum superstructure(for example HMS Sheffield in the Falklands War) with the largest and one of the toughest warships ever built. The Essex class carriers of WWII, far smaller and less well-protected than the current Nimitz class, took far more punishment from kamikazees off Okinawa than an Exocet can inflict, with its'(in comparison) small warhead. In fact, one Fletcher class destroyer(a"tin can") survived eight kamikazee strikes- steel, not aluminum, and multiple compartments. Submarines are are far more serious threat(which most of the attached escort, including hunter/killer submarines, are devoted to dealing with). The carriers give the USN the ability to control the sealanes of the world, as well as project power ashore; that is our strategic ace in the hole; nothing else is more important. People seem to have lost track of this since it has not been in question since WWII. Note China trying to lock up resources in Africa. The carriers give us the power to stop this any time we choose.
Note also the Royal Navy plans to replace their three small carriers with two big ones, though not as large as the Nimitz class.
None of the above means you'd want to try to keep the Persian Gulf open if the Iranians really wanted to close it; it's an inherently unfavorable environment, like off Okinawa(see Millenium Challenge exercise).

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Ok how about two or three exocets? By the way, we have bases in qatar and saudi arabia and kuwait? We couldn't keep the persian gulf open with those airbases? Puleez.

A change in the cowboy foreign policy and cooperation with friendly governments and we wouldn't need one f'n carrier. You actually think the persian gulf states wouldn't allow aircraft bases if the iranians tried to shut down the strait of hormuz? Not in a million years.

The carriers were obsolete 30 years ago and are just more wasted money on the military industrial complex.

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I may just be an old school follower of the theories of Alfred Thayer Mahan, but I think you would be a damn fool to get rid of our carriers.

I am all for dramatically curbing our military spending and certainly don't think much of fancy planes built to fight imaginary enemies (ala F22). But I am strongly of the opinion that the world is a safer place when one power controls the sea (and therefore trade).

The ability to project crushing power within days anywhere in the world makes us safer. One of the unmistakable lessons of history is that when multiple powers compete for dominance the world is a lot more unstable. Individual plays for advantage undermine the collective international law and trade. They unmistakably lead to more wars not less.

You are correct about the need for effective international cooperation, and particularly the fallacy of cowboy diplomacy (although I would point to Bosnia as an example of it being used most productively). Most of our presidents have used this power fairly responsibly, a few have abused it. That is a failure of our democracy, but despite such transgressions the world is a still safer one because we rule the sea.

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I guess I am on my soapbox, but conceptually think about something. I actually believed in a big navy and carriers until I saw the first gulf war. We have the technology to drop a bomb down a chimney? Aircraft in WWII won the war. Think midway. The problem in WWII was range. Now we have range around the world? And can drop a bomb down a chimney? What do we need carriers for? It's not logical.

I agree in keeping the sea lanes open, but the issue is who is the enemy? Pirates. The response is frigates and aircraft. The chinese, the response is dropping a bomb down their smokestake. Same with the russians. Carriers are so out of date and a complete waste of billions if not trillions of dollars. For what? If we want a couple of floating airbases, fine. They cost a hell of alot less than these fantasy super warships designed to deal with what enemy exactly? Martians?

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I guess I just wasn't as impressed with fancy imagery from the gulf war. And I can't help but note that it was the land bases on the holy land that inspired 15 of the 19 to bring the Mideast to Manhattan. I don't really think we should be involved with the local intrigue, tends to boomerang.

Pirates, quick show of force, permanent roving reminder of whose numero uno, good will visits to ports of call that flood the streets with drunken sailors eager to well be drunken sailors. There is more to the use of the navy then just force. And missiles down the chimney are not cheap either, quite the contrary, and they are not quickly replaceable- too many moving parts.

I think we should be doing a lot more walking softly in the world, and keep our eyes in the sky and our big sticks wandering around the oceans not in your face.

Although I do not disagree that we could stand to lose a group or two.

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Thinking conceptually, as you put it, the capabilities of the Air Force lie in strategic bombing, not in force projection.

A carrier group provides just that: force projection.

First, there is the ability to launch air strikes from international waters. While I do understand that you discount that ability as irrelevant due to our capability to use local land bases, such is not always the case. Examples: the current issue of us losing an airbase in central asia because the local government wants us out, and the inability for the USAF to cross Turkey during the air campaign in Iraq back in 2003, because Turkey closed its airspace to us.

Keep in mind, they're one of our allies. If we were to go in the way you suggest after our military had been denied fly-over rights, that's a treaty violation at the very least, and depending on the country and tension levels, could be an extremely costly move. At the very least, it cannot make any situation easier. There is a reason the F-111s Reagan sent from Great Britain to hit Libya flew the long way 'round, there and back.

The Saudis, meanwhile, play a dangerous game of keeping us just close enough to not damage our oil dependency... but that will not last forever. Once the status quo shifts with regard to our addition to petroleum or with regard to our primacy as a consumer (say, if China were to overtake us importing Arabian and Kuwaiti crude), you can kiss the airbases in Riyadh and Kuwait goodbye.

Nor should the effect of those bases on local sentiment be ignored: One of the principle excuses given by OBL for AQ's shift in focus to the US was the presence of American forces on the 'holy' territory of the Arabian Penninsula. There is no guarantee that other land bases would not rouse similar territorial animosity. International waters, on the other hand, do not.

Next, you raise the issue of mid-air refueling. Mid-air refueling has its own problems and limitations.

First, the aircraft are extremely vulnerable during refueling. Second, it's not an efficient use of fuel. Refueling an entire strike force in mid-air means that while each plane is refueling, the others are all burning fuel, waiting. In both directions.

Third, you're dependent upon the tanker. Should something happen to it, you're screwed. Example: Those UCAVs you're so concerned about. It's not too difficult to envision a UCAV with an extremely high flight ceiling and long range/loiter period. Once you have that, you can hunt down tanker aircraft, if you have an approximate idea of where to look. As this was one of the mission profiles for the MiG-25, it's not at all something you won't see high-altitude UCAVs used for. In fact, given the relative disposability of such things, you'll probably see that mission profile before you see one designed for air-to-air combat. (Air-to-air combat would require extremely versatile and adaptive software. You can't do it w/someone driving back at the base, because milliseconds count, and communications lag-time would mean your hardware is a failure, cuz it's dead. And let's face it, the idea of a fully autonomous UCAV is not one that's gonna get popular support anytime soon. Killer robots that run themselves?)

If the tanker's shot down, say, while your strike force is over the target? Then you've lost the entire strike force, and all those pilots.

And that's the other big advantage to a carrier group: a relatively close, friendly landing site that a damaged craft can hopefully reach, and if not, then the pilot can get close enough for a hope of Search & Rescue. There's no way you're going to get good S&R if your nearest airbase is 3,000 miles away.

Which is another massive bonus for the carrier force: flexibility. An Carrier Group can do far more than just launch air strikes. It can provide access to places the USAF simply cannot.

Example:
On Dec 26, 2004 a massive tsunami struck in the Indian Ocean. You might remember that. By Dec 31, helicopters flying off of US aircraft carriers were airlifting supplies and other humanitarian aid (personnel, etc) into regions inaccessible by fixed-wing aircraft, and well-outside the range of helicopter flight from relief staging areas.

They're also extremely well-defended, given the presence not only of their own PHALANX-style defensive armament, but that of their escort ships, which are, after all, there to protect the carrier, and the defensive capabilities of their CAP.

As far as the claims of 'nothing can match the (insert current fighter here) anyway' go... in 2005, there was a series of wargames we participated in over the Indian Ocean. We lost to French-built Mirage 2000s and Russian-built Sukhoi-30s.

Lemme say that again: We lost. To aircraft built for export. Flown by pilots of another nuclear power. Pilots who, when participating in wargames in Nevada, were under strict orders not to use the full capabilities of their aircraft, because their superiors didn't want us to see what those capabilities (including their highly-advanced radar systems) actually were.

The F-22 and F-35 JSF are wonderful targets for budget-conscious MIC-busters... but do not think for a moment that they are completely frivolous. We are not so far ahead of the pack as we like to think.

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Thank you for all the information. Very informative and I do appreciate it. My point is the blatant waste of money and the targeting and planning of who the enemy is. Also, legitimate information about the enemy. I still feel burned about the former soviet union and the trillions wasted based on a false impression by the public. I was all gung ho, as many were during the cold war for military build-up and expenditures, but it was based on a false presentation of the adversary. I truly find it hard to believe that the politicians, military brass and intelligence agencies did not know about the true nature of the threat, virtually non-existent. And all the trillions we spent for nothing. How much did the europeans spend? And they were at the doorstep of the alleged threat? Seems to me they knew and we were lied to.

On carriers, I concede the point of power projection. It can be accomplished in other ways, but it is there. Conceding that point, how many carrier battle groups are necessary then? 4 or 6 max. One carrier battle group could probably alone wipe out any navy in the world today. Why do we need 12?

On the aircraft that you mentioned, the mirage 2000 and the su-30. Both fine aircraft. I don't see those planes going to iran, north korea, or al quaeda. Also, the pilots are critical as well. Our pilots are some of the best in the world. You could put a super advanced airplane in the hands of an inexperienced pilot and there goes any advantage that may exist. If the f-22 is so awesome, why aren't 181 enough to take anything out already? Seems more than enough.

I guess my bottom line is, why spend so much money that we don't have? Why not put money in r&d to build a better aircraft more cheaply? Same thing with warships. The germans lost wwII in part because they over-engineered everything and a german tank, while superior, was way too costly and they couldn't build them in enough numbers. The sherman was an inferior tank, but we could build them by the tens of thousands and we won with numbers, along with air power. Let's look at the lessons of history.

Also, economic power is more important than military power and our economy is imploding. We can save the frivilous expenditures for the future when we are back on track. Right now, I would put the brakes on everything except things absolutely necessary. There is no immediate threat requiring super advanced carriers and super advanced aircraft.

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One of the large reasons Europe didn't spend as much for defense against the USSR is: they didn't have to. We spent it for them. As far as how 'real' the threat of the USSR was... I invite you to talk to my relatives in Poland, or folks in Hungary, about how real the threat was. Or the Chechens.

Yes, the Soviet economy imploded. That doesn't mean they weren't a serious threat to us. In fact, it was their commitment to being such a threat that caused the implosion of their economy: their central committee was too determined to keep up with us.

When it comes to 'planning who the enemy is', that's one of the advantages of the carrier group: it can get more or less to anywhere it needs to, which refueling aircraft aren't always able to do.

As far as 'how many do we need'? Well... we have 11. Those 11 carrier groups (1 stationed in Japan) between them cover some 361,000,000 square kilometers. So, roughly 35 million square kilometers each. Given that the example I cited in my other reply involved carrier groups deploying to help save lives in Sumatra without reducing the Navy presence on missions like interdicting illegal traffic in the Persian Gulf, protecting Taiwan, etc.

Also, as far as Taiwan goes... yes, in theory, using aerial refueling, we could put a very large number of aircraft over Taiwan goes quickly. They could not, however, stay there. They have to return to base. An aircraft carrier group and its flight wing can loiter. More, they can deploy quickly from the carrier at need. You're worried about expense, right? Guess which is more expensive: flying 85 aircraft across the Pacific and back, or sticking 85 aircraft in a big tub that needs to be refueled once every 50 years, and driving the tub around.

Hint: it's not flying.

On the subject of the Mirage 2000 and the Su-30: The French and Russians both do have healthy trade relationships with Iran. The Russians, in particular, cannot be trusted not to export arms to Iran. Iran's fleet of F-14s (purchased by the Shah) is getting extremely long in the tooth, and even if they cannot acquire Su-30s directly from Russia, they might be able to acquire them through China.

One of the big questions you raise is: Why not put money in r&d to build a better aircraft more cheaply? Same thing with warships. The germans lost wwII in part because they over-engineered everything and a german tank, while superior, was way too costly and they couldn't build them in enough numbers. The sherman was an inferior tank, but we could build them by the tens of thousands and we won with numbers, along with air power. Let's look at the lessons of history.

First, it's important to remember that the Germans had no trouble building a large number of armored vehicles before the war. When the Germans ran into difficulty was late in the war, and the difficulty in building 'enough numbers' had nothing to do with cost. It had to do with supply. The Germans couldn't get the materials needed into production facilities. It wasn't an issue of money. It was an issue of a)actually getting the materials, and b)not having their facilities demolished by allied bombing.

The big advantage the Allies had in that scenario was a 3000 mile ocean between the germans and allied production facilities. We were able to produce so many tanks and aircraft and warships... because our production facilities were never in any danger.

Second, when it comes to making things more cheaply... R&D is the expensive part. What makes the F-22 so expensive isn't materials, it's the development costs. The more aircraft of a particular design you make, the cheaper each one is. Further, you can't simply keep researching and researching. At some point, you have to actually build the aircraft and see whether your projections and models work the way you thought they would. In order to build that testbed aircraft, and do that research, the companies have to have an expectation of recovering the cost of doing so. Without an expectation of funding, they can't pay for the research. If we simply stop all of these projects (which, really, are about maintaining research and production capabilities while getting some actual return on the investment), we wind up in the situation NASA's in.

After Apollo, NASA pretty much shelved its capsule and moon-shot development capabilities. Now, with the plan to go back to the moon, we're forced to pretty much re-develop everything we had. At the same time, NASA got Lockheed and Boeing to develop the shuttle, and after the Challenger disaster, were able to order a replacement shuttle. After Columbia, the option to replace the lost shuttle didn't exist, because developments in the intervening years had led to Lockheed and Boeing being unable to actually build another one.

So, in 2009, NASA is stuck in the awkward position of flying craft developed in the 1970s which they cannot replace, which are now showing significantly dangerous design flaws, while attempting to redevelop craft developed in the 1960s. This is in part a result of two decades of no additional development of crewed vehicles during the 80s and 90s.

When we finally do regain the capabilities we had 40 years ago, it will only be after the expenditure of an exorbitant amount of money and effort. In the long run, it is far cheaper to maintain a development and production capability than it is to repeatedly duplicate the process of building it up from scratch.

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Good points, but a couple of comebacks.

1. I traveled in poland and czechoslovakia as well. Yes the opression of those people was horrendous. That did not mean that the soviet union was a threat to the rest of europe. They were occupiers. By the way, poland and czecholsovakia was far more advance than the former soviet union, even while being oppressed. Kind of further emphasizes the weakness of the former soviet union.

2. True, they were spending money to try and "keep up." The problem was supply, they had no capabilities to supply a huge ground offensive in europe. None. They couldn't even feed their people. Also, the quality of the military hardware was pathetic, see arab-israeli wars. Bottom line, they were no real threat warranting the expenditure of trillions and trillions of dollars. It was a right-wing fantasy that we were sold.

3. We have smaller amphib ships for rescue operations. I actually think that was what was deployed to sumatra, not one of the big carriers. The big carriers are totally for offense. The point is against freaking who? There is no reason not to have 1/2 the number, including the rotation requirements. One of our carrier groups could take out any navy one on one today. You are also forgetting about our allies, the french, british, spain, italy. They each have one carrier, which would be in addition to ours. Again, no reason for the cost and expense.

4. I think you are missing the point on taiwan and the air refueling. Yes, for a first strike or one shot strike aerial refueling is adequate. If taiwan was threatened, the planes would fly there and base there. Same with the strait of hormuz. Fly and base there. Alot cheaper and easier than steaming a tub across the ocean and sitting it out there like a sitting duck. Land basing is the way to go with allies.

5. No way the russians or chinese sell advanced fighters to the iranians. Even if they did the iranian pilots would not be up the task vs. american pilots. Also, we would bomb the sh*t out of the aircraft when hostilities were initiated. They are stuck with their f-14's that are in complete disrepair for a long, long time.

6. R&D. My point was just do that and let the government pay for it. It would be a hell of alot cheaper. By the way the European Strike Fighter is 1/2 the cost of the f-22. Is the f-22 twice as effective? I seriously doubt it.

7. I think you are incorrect on the german situation. Their production was increasing throughout the war, even until 1944. The problem was the tanks were way over engineered and were not so overly effective compared to allied tanks warranting the costs and over engineering. That was the biggest problem. Also, at the beginning of the war, they didn't have that many tanks, just better tactics. The french and english had more tanks in 40, but spread them out. The germans concentrated them. Same thing with the russians. I think the russians had substantially more tanks, but again spread them out. The allies started to copy the german tactics and concentrate their tanks later in the war and then it was all over but the shouting.

8. Really on a replacement shuttle? I thought they were cancelling the program and didn't want to build another. On Apollo, I agree that they shouldn't have totally shelved the program and go with the wasteful and non-cost effective shuttle. Sounds like over-engineering again to me with a ton of wasted money and lives. I think that is the lesson from nasa, not spending more money, but being efficient, practical and effective.

Interesting exchange if you come back. I am not opposed to expenditures. My point is be efficient, practical and effective and know who the enemy is. That's the point.

There is no enemy warranting 11 carrier battle groups, 12 is the Gerald Ford that is under construction, with two more planned? WTF. Also, land air bases are safer and more effective. If you want a floating airbase, build a floating airbase to deal with projecting power in environments that would not be a threat to the floating airbase. You could build ten if you wanted for the price of one super-carrier. I don't think that you need them though and can land base near any threat throughout the world.

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1)Re: Poland and Czechoslovakia: The point isn't that the USSR was in a stronger position than its satellite states, but rather that they were in a position to directly threaten those and adjacent states with their direct military pressure.

2)Actually, they had the capability to field a strong European invasion force, but squandered it in Afghanistan (that whole 'demise of empires' deal). Their ability to maintain that invasion for as long as they did was a significant part of what sold many people on the projections of their capabilities.

The big thing to remember on the mistaken estimations of Soviet power is that far and away, the people who 'sold' us on those estimations believed them. That's what made them so dangerous, and it's the same thing that made Cheney so dangerous after Sept. 11: Sincerity. They well and truly believed the things they were spouting, and they were scared.

3)No, it was the USS Abraham Lincoln and her Carrier Group. As far as 'against who?' goes, hopefully against nobody. That's pretty much the point: overwhelming response capability as deterrent. As far as our allies go... allies are wonderful things, but their interests, no matter how often they are in close alignment, will not be our own.

4)Again, that is a weakness of land-based aircraft. The U.S. cannot base aircraft on Taiwan as a deterrent to invasion. Taiwan is, in the eyes of the People's Republic of China, their sovereign territory. Were we to base aircraft there as a deterrent, it would be considered an act of war. As a response to aggression, it would be irresponsible to base aircraft on the island itself. The island doesn't move. The position of the air base doesn't change. That makes it very easy to find. Now, in this age of satellite surveillance, the ability of carriers to hide on the open ocean is diminished, but it's still a harder target to find than an airstrip on an island.

5)Direct sales are not the only way to acquire these things. Third-party sales are a booming industry. Regarding pilots... to assume that American pilots are inherently superior is exactly the kind of hubris that tends to cause mistakes. Remember that the Iranians have a solid corps of combat-experienced pilots, even if they're getting older now. That means they have skilled instructors, at the very least. I'm not saying they're a dire threat, but no threat is ever safe to dismiss completely.

6)Pure R&D Cheaper? Maybe, maybe not. At the very least, it means your pilots don't get any experience with the updated systems, and those systems only get what testing the manufacturers think to give them. Imagine if the last two generations of fighters had gone that route. At what point do we begin producing units for actual use? When someone attacks? When they need to go right into the field and into combat? Totally ignoring the problems of ramping up production quickly from testbed aircraft... assuming there's one design that incorporates a significant amount of the advancements, and not a dozen designs each focusing on one or two technologies (the F-18 spent fifteen years in development, not including the precursor Northrop designs it evolved from)... that would've been a hell of a time to find out about the tendency for F-16 instrumentation to have pilots coming out of clouds upside down. Those problems might have been repeated on later aircraft, like the F-117, which relies even more on fly-by-wire and instrumentation flying.

7)Re: German tank production. German tank production dropped off significantly due to Allied bombing of production facilities and supply scarcity. Production of the Tiger II, for example, was halved, largely due to factory destruction. Technical problems didn't keep the tanks from being built, only from working as well as they were intented to. One of the main reasons for the German activities in North Africa was an attempt to secure oilfields. Both the Germans and the Japanese suffered critical resource shortages, as did all of the other European powers during the war years. Once again, the largest production engine of the war was in the United States, where abundant natural resources and a relatively safe and insulated distance from the front lines came together.

8)Really. That loss of capability, in fact, was one of the factors that influenced the decision to retire the shuttle fleet, instead of refurbishing Enterprise, as was suggested by some as a cheap alternative to a new shuttle.

9)There is no enemy warranting 11 carrier groups. Nor should you worry about there being 12 carrier groups. When the Ford enters active service, she will replace Enterprise, which is slated for retirement. CVN-79 and CVN-80 are scheduled to replace Nimitz and Eisenhower, respectively.

In addition, the Ford-class of carriers, while more expensive to construct, promise to be cheaper to operate than Enterprise and the Nimitz-class carriers. Among other things, the catapult system is an electromagnetic system, rather than the older steam-driven catapults, which will reduce wear-and-tear on the aircraft (the current system torques hard on the front landing gear when it fires, the new one will accelerate them more gradually), as well as conserving fresh water. As well, they require a complement of about 1,000 fewer people than the Nimitz-class, further reducing operating expenses (especially when you consider that if CVN-79 serves for the same amount of time that Nimitz will have served when she's replaced, that will be 43,000 yearly salaries saved).

In effect, what you're complaining about with the Ford-class carriers is almost exactly what you're asking for with fighter aircraft: This is a ship design that's been in the works for 40 years already, and the Ford doesn't join the fleet until 2015, 53 years after the ship she's replacing. Considering Enterprise cost $451.3M to build (less than the cost of 1 of the new replacements for Marine One), I'd say overall, the cost-effectiveness value of carriers is incredibly high. The Ford is currently (not originally) being estimated at coming in at $5.1B. That's only 10x the cost of Enterprise. That's what, 9.4 Presidential helicopters? Your 'floating air base' that costs as much as an aircraft carrier built in 1958? It doesn't exist. And if it did, it would need to be able to survive the same stresses, both from the potential dangers of war, and from normal wear-and-tear of being a sea-going vessel, that an aircraft carrier needs to survive.

At the end of the day, you know what you'd end up with? The USS Gerald R. Ford.

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Couple of things:

1. You keep missing my point on the capabilities of the former soviet union. They could not supply and sustain an invasion. That is the point. They would run out of gas and supplies very quickly and not be able to resupply, therefore they would never have invaded. They were just using the numbers as a threat for political purposes.

2. Afghanistan? The most troops they had in afghanistan was about 110,000 and they couldn't keep them supplied? That is evidence that they had zero capability to invade and occupy western europe. Afghanistan was on their doorstep and they couldn't control the situation. I would say that afghanistan should have told us to rapidly decrease spending as they were no threat and what did we do? We did the opposite.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_war_in_Afghanistan

I find it hard to believe that people in the know "believed" the threat. They believed it, allegedly, because they wanted to and it served their political purposes. Kind of like the ginning up of intelligence to justify invading iraq. Same thing. They lied to us.

3. Got me on the Lincoln. It obviously was for political purposes from the king. They should have sent in amphib ships with helicopter capability and amphib capability. That would have made much more sense. Who were they planning on bombing? Silly.

4. You keep missing my point on taiwan. I am not say permanently base there, I am saying temporarily base there in the face of a threat if necessary. Japan, okinawa and s. korea are close enough anyway. Okinawa to taipei is only 393 miles by the way. Nah, it would be suicide to put carriers near taiwan if there was a threat from china. They would be sitting ducks.

5. I seriously doubt that such advanced fighters, in sufficient number to make a difference, could be purchased through third party sales. That's not realistic. Iran does not have a "solid corps of combat-experienced pilots." What are you talking about? Their airforce was virtually grounded throughout the iraq iran war. Incidentally, look how awesome the iraqi airforce was against the us. I would submit that the iraqis would be clearly superior to the iranians and they got slaughtered.

6. I get the training issue. R&D right now is much cheaper. We probably have at least a 20 to 50 year window where we are much more advanced then any potential threat, except from outer space. Let's use it wisely as opposed to pissing away more money on toys.

7. You are completely wrong on german tank production. Sorry. See below link.

http://www.teachersparadise.com/ency/en/wikipedia/g/ge/german_tank_production_during_world_war_ii.html

The problem was insufficient quantity and over-engineering. They copied the sloped armour of the t-34 and then way over-engineered the Panzer V. If they would have just totally copied the tank, they could have produced 3-4 times more Panzer V's. That was the point. That is why I don't understand why it costs twice as much or more for the the us to make a freaking plane vs. the europeans and the plane is basically the same or has the same capabilities. It's a bunch of bull.

Concerning the oil problem, you get no argument from me on that one. They had supply problems, but that doesn't mean that the production dropped like you stated or that they didn't way over-engineer the tanks.

Incidentally, I am not arguing about the allies bombing the shit out of production facilities. The thing that I find amazing is that production actually went up. I just found this out recently, which is astounding when you think about it.

8. I'm not going to try and research the shuttle argument. I just recall what I read in the press.

9. There is no enemy warranting the horrendous waste of money and potentially lives associated with the carriers. I'm not worried about 12, I worried about any more than 6 max and totally different types of carriers that aren't built to fight an enemy that doesn't exist. Midway happened in 42. We've come along way since then technologically. How many carriers do the russians and chinese have??????? The russians have ONE, that rarely puts out to sea and is probably worthless. Spain alone could take out the russian navy if necessary or France. Why on earth do we need almost all total 20 times the number of carriers the russians have?????

Concerning the ford carriers, you know what is funny is that is the same thing they said about the space shuttle. Give me a freaking break. How can the ford carriers be cheaper anyway? They all run on nuclear reactors. Come on.

Nah, dump them all as far as I am concerned. However, in order to keep the war hawks at bay for a decade or so, just mothball 1/2 of them and then in 20 years we can get rid of the rest. No more new carriers. It's all wasted money and is totally not cost effective or worth the risk to the lives involved. They are nothing more than expensive and dangerous toys designed for an era that ceased to exist at a minimum 20 years ago and probably realistically 30 to 40 years ago.

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re: 1 & 2 - And you're missing my point. The common perception was not of the Soviets having trouble keeping their forces supplied in Afghanistan. The common perception was: The Soviets invaded Hungary in the 60s, and less than 15 years later, can go and invade another neighbor. Perception, especially once you start working with groups of people, supercedes reality. And yes, I have absolutely no trouble accepting that people believed things they had no evidence to support, even things that common sense and reason would tell them they shouldn't invest any faith in. After all, people believe in God, too, and he certainly falls into that category.

People have a strong tendency to believe in the things that strike a strong emotional chord in them, even when rationality would suggest skepticism. Hope and fear are two of the strongest.

3)The Lincoln Carrier Group includes amphibious capabilities. It also includes an extremely large supply depot and clearinghouse where fixed-wing aircraft that might not be able to land on an LHA can land and unload supplies. The carrier also serves as deterrent, even in that situation. As I'm sure you're aware, Sumatra is part of the region where piracy is increasingly common. Pirates, in general, are less concerned with the welfare of others than they are their own well-being. I'm not saying that pirates would gleefully engage any military vessel, but they might try to take advantage of a smaller commercial vessel being used to help transport supplies, and the air wing of a carrier does have the advantage of being able to respond to the entire theatre, quickly, and with better range than any surface vessel.

4)No, I'm not missing your point on Taiwan. I'm telling you, there is no 'temporary' basing of American warplanes on territory claimed by the People's Republic of China. A U.S. fighter squadron gets based there, that's something the Chinese have already made clear they will consider an act of war. They don't care how long. They don't care what the circumstances are. U.S. military don't land on Taiwan. Period. Ever.

5 & 6)Again, I have to say that you're missing the point here: it's not that such aircraft can be bought in massive numbers. It's that they can be bought at all. You're advocating a 20-year 'pause' on new fighter designs. But the last new wave of fighter designs was 20 years ago. Think about our 'advanced' fighters before the F-22/F-35. The F-15, 16, and F/A-18? Designed in the 60s and 70s. The F-117? Designed in the 1970s, first flew in 1981. Incremental improvements in the electronics and engines have kept these designs on top of the heap, but they're all closing in on 30 years old. The only thing close to a 'new' design is the Super Hornet, and that's just the Hornet, supersized. (Ironic, since the Hornet was designed to compete for the 'small, light counterpart to the F-15' role initially.)

7)I'm afraid I'm not wrong. Here's the wikipedia entry your link copied from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_armored_fighting_vehicle_production_during_World_War_II

Now take another look at those numbers. The PzIII, with production lines already spun up, still crashes in its numbers. 1944's the 'big' year because 1944's the end of the supplies from territories previously captured, and the year allied daylight bombing resumed with the arrival of the P-51 to provide fighter escort.

As for producing 3-4 times as many if they'd gone with Panthers... probably not. The Panther lines were already up and running. The Tiger and Tiger II simply weren't ordered in the same numbers as the Panther. 1500 Tiger IIs were ordered, of which less than a third were delivered. The mechanical problems that plagued the Tiger II didn't stop it from getting built. Erwin Anders, the chief designer of the tank, admitted that "The breakdowns can be attributed to the fact that the Tiger II had to go straight into series production without the benefit of test results." But those breakdowns occurred after production, out in the field.

9)Here's the thing about comparisons v the Russian and Chinese navies: They're not the ones with only 2 adjacent nations, and extensive island holdings.

So when they operate, they don't need the capability to maintain force projection across 3-6,000 miles of ocean, and they're not the ones with treaty obligations to defend allies (potentially at the same time) on opposite sides of the planet. We are.

Running on nukes has nothing to do with the Ford-class being cheaper. All of our current supercarriers are nukes. If you look at what examples I cited, they were: reduced wear and tear on the aircraft at launch, which reduces the need for repair, which reduces operating expenses, and reduced crewing requirements.

Basic Pay for an E-3 (Seaman) with 2 years in the USN is $1,754 (about $21k a year). Assuming all 1,000 of the reduced crewing requirements are E-3s* and none have more than 2 years in the Navy**, and that pay rates stay exactly the same*** over the 43 year service life of the ship that I guesstimated in my earlier reply****, that's a savings of $905,064,000, or close to 1/5 of the cost of the ship, per carrier. Actual numbers involving actual ranks and years of service of crew complement would, of course, skew higher. If the average yearly pay over those 43 years, for example, worked out to $30k, then you're looking at $1.29B savings per carrier, which is slightly more than 1/4 of the cost.

You're the one saying we should just have 'floating airbases'. An aircraft carrier is designed to be exactly that, and to be that as efficiently and safely as it can be. Considering that we're separated from all but 2 other nations by thousands of miles of ocean, and that half of the territory of the United States of America is, in fact, ocean... losing our carriers would be an incredible mistake.

* - Highly unlikely, especially considering the Ford-class will carry 10 fewer fixed-wing aircraft. Each one of those is piloted by at minimum an Ensign, more likely a Lt (jg), and in most cases, has another O-1/O-2 for a RIO/co-pilot (depending on what kind of aircraft), as well as the attendent reduction in hangar crew (which means a reduction in WOs and CPOs etc)
** - Also highly unlikely
*** - Extremely unlikely
**** - It's projected to be 50 years, so that's fairly close, given the early retirement schedule for replacement

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I'd guess that the United States' naval superiority (which is based entirely on the carrier groups) is the only thing ultimately holding China in check from invading Taiwan..as one example.

As floating air bases the carriers also provides the United States with the ability to project air power over great distances without the vulnerabiliteis and restrictions of local bases.

Some justifications from the Navy:

"The carrier battle group, operating in international waters, does not need the permission of host countries for landing or overflight rights. Nor does it need to build or maintain bases in countries where our presence may cause political or other strains...[for example, Tajikistan at the moment]

The carrier battle group can not only operate independently but it presents a unique range of options to the President, Congress and Secretary of Defense. By using the oceans — more than 70% of the earth's surface is ocean — both as a means of access and as a base, forward-deployed Navy and Marine forces are readily available to provide the United States with a rheostat of national response capabilities. These capabilities range from simply showing the flag — just a presence — to insertion of power ashore."

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1. On taiwan, no way. We could fly in more aircraft at a moments notice than anything we have flying off of carriers. Throw in the taiwan airforce. That's what's stopping the chinese, not carriers.

2. I agree about the floating airbase gig, that's about it. It costs a hell of alot less to build a floating airbase then trying to build a ship that is resistent to a missle hit that could sink it. If we are in a conflict with a power with that technology, then just use land based and air refueled aircraft. We don't need a carrier. They are too expensive to play politics.

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When you consider that the "Fort Lewis Stryker Brigade previously scheduled to be sent to Iraq this summer instead will be sent to Afghanistan" under the new plans, and that sending these armoured Stryker vehicles from Iraq (where they are valued as good protection from IEDs by commanders on the ground)represents a clear trade off between the two theatres of combat, spending on advanced weapons programs seems a little quaint, don't you think?

Obama can "change the culture" in Washington by completely restructuring the VH-71 Marine One Helicopter program. I mean each F-22 might cost more than $300 million, but each new Marine One helicopter, of 28, will cost nearly $1 billion.

(Plus Bush & Co. probably pushed the contract toward AgustaWestland as a back-slap to Iraq allies in Britain and Italy)

I mean, the EH101 'Merlin' is a great helicopter (what the VH-71 is based on). The RAF is buying plenty of them for good reason, but "it soon became clear that modifying the EH-101 was much more complicated than anticipated."

Then you take the V-22 Osprey, which is...to put it mildly...an utter disaster. When Marines on the ground in Afghanistan and Iraq should be receiving trustworthy air support, the Marine Corps has turned the Osprey program into a sinkhole for virtually their entire procurement budget.

What do they have to show for it? What Defence Industry Daily calls "a flying shame". An aircraft that has never been put into frontline, combat service because of its many vulnerabilities, which has killed 30 people in development alone (several Marines among them), and which has been allowed to continue when:

“Emergency landing after the sudden failure of both engines in the Conversion/Vertical Take-Off and Landing modes below 1,600 feet altitude are not likely to be survivable."

...or as DID point out more bluntly,"No autorotation means any crash is likely to kill everyone on board."

Then we come to the F-22, which I have a less critical opinion of (although, as the Wonk Room point out, the Cope India 2004 excercises regularly cited by proponents were so blatantly rigged in favour of the F-22 that one source snarked “What better way to keep an aerial boondoggle like the F-22 program healthy and sucking up funds”)

From what I can see here the F-22 production line has enough orders to keep it going until 2011 - any new orders will presumably have little effect until then.

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I'm talking open ocean here(blue water); you're talking bases we could lose in a matter of weeks; remember the Iranian revolution? We were tight with them, sold them first line stuff- Spruance class destroyers, F-14s. In the open ocean, no way could any power put a dozen exocets into a carrier- they'd never get near it, in fact they'd have great trouble even finding it, if adequate silence was maintained, and no telltale visual patterns were presented to the satellites(if any). It's called sea control, and no other vessel can control as much sea area as a carrier.

Power projection-the Royal Navy lost six ships off the Falklands; if they'd had one of the fleet carriers they're now building(instead of two small carriers flying Harriers), they might not have lost even one.They would have been able to maintain an air cover that the Argentines would have great difficulty penetrating.

Don't assume that all things change; if you're not prepared to fight the last war, you might just have to fight it again. One of the lessons of the Falklands, in fact, was too many assumptions had been made that old lessons no longer applied.

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1. No, I'm not talking permanent bases. I'm talking about flying in aircraft when the need arises. I already listed all the countries that we have and could get basing rights at a moments notice. I still don't see a big deal with air refueling, but if you want bases, we got them.

2. Iran was in the 70's. We are in 2009. The comparison is irrelevant.

3. The carriers became obsolete in the 70's and we keep paying for them.

4. The faulklands were in 1982. Incidentally, the british are building two fleet carriers and how many do the chinese and russians have? I think the british could take them on and wipe their navies out. Oh, by the way, how many do we have? TWELVE??????? WTF? Who is the big threat? Nobody. Cut them in half and that is more than enough. Who in God's name is the enemy that we need twelve unsinkable super-carriers? Who?

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The technology and costs have risen in the case of technology and declined in the costs of it to render piloted aircraft a vestage of the past. The Joint Strike Fighter (F35) will probably be the last of the piloted fighters. The next war will be done with pilots sitting in a command trailer some where and whipping their planes through a 12 G turn that a human can't endure. Gates knows this.

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That's why I like him as defense secretary. He's pragmatic, like obama. And, that's why obama wants him as defense secretary. Let's stop wasting money, please.

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So can't these 95,000 people make peaceful, useful things in stead of fighter airplanes? How about windmills, pollution control systems, mass transit equipment, solar arrays, next generation battery systems, energy conservation innovations, education technology equipment, advanced medical equipment, scooters and bicycles.

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Or just restart the F-18 production line. Nothing can match that plane and they are a lot cheaper and proven.

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Co-sign. Best aircraft in the world and probably for the next 20 years at least. Let's see. We built the f-16 in the 70's and what foreign plane is better than that 40 year old plane? NONE. It still is one of the best planes in the world, second only to american planes. This is beyond ridiculous and has to stop. Who is the enemy????????

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Once again- 12 is alot- but assumptions are dangerous, surprises are guaranteed. Assuming history is irrelevant is particularly dangerous. The Brits assumed they wouldn't need a fleet carrier, because they planned to fight the Soviets as part of NATO; they were wrong. We'd fly in aircraft to Middle Eastern bases in a situation of serious tension? What guarantee is there that those Governments would let us? I feel all warm and fuzzy that the Chinese and Russians have every reason to conclude that contesting the dominance of the the USN and our allies is futile; naval arms races are dangerous. The USN does have deficiencies which the cost of the carriers make harder to address; but the bigger problem is the usual one of over designing every thing(or letting the contractors do it)- the Littoral Combat Ships, for example. Small, cheap, ships to be built in large numbers-at, what,nearly $1B for the first two?

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My former TIME colleague, Mark Thompson, a veteran defense correspondent, has, for instance, written at length about the problems bedeviling the V-22 Osprey aircraft and why, despite its woes, billions have been pumped into the project.

Thompson's aticle was full of factual errors and was an embarrassment to objective journalism. Anyone who touts that piece of "work" brings their credibility into question.

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Why 12? Because they are machines with people living on them. They need both maintenance and crew swaps. At any time you have groups deployed, groups undergoing refit and groups doing workups in preparation to be deployed.

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This looks for the world like the old 80's battle over the F-20 and F-16. The F-20 cost 1/2 the price of the F-16 and in tests the F-16 was repeatedly mock shot down by it. Sadly the F-20 with it's better cost and agility was shot down by Reagan as it was "not big enough to stand up to the Soviet Migs." The fact that it was a better plane in a dog fight and cheaper to operate was lost on Reagan's mighty facsit military utopia wet dream. Since we have as a nation wasted the money already on developing the F-22 and paying extra to fix the whole "plane loses all its electronics when it crosses the international date line" problem, I say finsh out the current contract thus saving the jobs until 2011. That said, F-35 is a better alternative as it is cheaper to buy and can later split it's cost for parts among three branches of the military. Then if we feel all inadequate and need to compensate for a small Air Force package we can just license and build the Euro Fighter as it costs half as much to buy then the F-22 and parts can be sought from our allies in times of actual war.

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