Poll: Lieberman Would Lose 2012 Re-Election In Landslide
If Joe Lieberman decides to run for a fifth term in 2012, a new Quinnipiac poll suggests that it may be a lost cause.
The new poll tests Lieberman as an independent against Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal. The numbers: Blumenthal 58%, Lieberman 30%. Yikes.
Lieberman's active campaigning against the Democratic Party last year hasn't won him too many friends back home. Democrats go for Blumenthal by 83%-9%, and independents are for Blumenthal 55%-29%. Lieberman is the de facto Republican nominee in this match, and with GOP voters he scores 67%-23% over Blumenthal.
Lieberman's job approval is also at only 45%, with 48% disapproving. Among Democrats that's a 21%-70% rating, Republicans 75%-20%, while independents give him a narrow approval of 48%-46%.
A lot can happen in four years, but right now it doesn't look like Lieberman has too many options. He can't run as a Democrat, he would still lose as a Republican, and there's no reason to believe that staying as an independent will provide much more of an opportunity.
Josh
Matt
Eric
Gee, that's a shock. AMF. The troll knew it and was aiming for a cabinet position in the mcbush administration. What a shame.
February 10, 2009 9:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
February 10, 2009 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
DITTO!
February 10, 2009 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm pretty sure this means Lieberman deserves a standing ovation next time he enters the Senate, and probably a reach-around from Reid.
February 10, 2009 9:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
He earned it!
February 10, 2009 9:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
All this will do is push McCain further right. He'll figure out his only chance is to get the GOP vote once again, and then hope to peel off come centrists and moderate Dems.
Dems better get 62-63 seats out of 2010, so any shenanigans by Lieberman will lack any real power.
February 10, 2009 9:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
If obama keeps doing what he is doing and the republicans keep doing what they are doing, the dems will pick up 10 senators easily in 2010. There are about 14 in play for the dems and 10 is not outside the realm of possiblility.
February 10, 2009 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just out of curiosity Jonze, where do you see the 10 pickups by Democrats. I'm looking and don't see nearly that many.
February 10, 2009 9:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
That was probably to me. Here you go:
Florida, new hampshire, kentucky, missouri, ohio, kansas, pennsylvania, alaska again, Georgia, north carolina, texas, louisiana. Call me crazy, but I would add arizona as well. I think mcbush might have a problem.
That's 13 and depends obviously on who the dems put up. The theatrics of what is going on politically will play heavily on what happens. If the republicans keep doing what they are doing, gambling on obama failing, then I believe that they will have huge problems in 2010 even if the economy does not dramatically turn around by that time. There could even be more that are in trouble.
February 10, 2009 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
As optimistic as I am about new pickups, I just don't see pickups in Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, Alaska, Kansas, Florida (if Crist runs), or Pennsylvania.
I could see pickups in New Hampshire, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio and Louisiana, although some of those places might struggle to find a good Democratic candidate. Even in places like Missouri and Ohio, a good Republican candidate like Blunt or Portman could make it very competitive. Kentucky could also be problematic because rural Kentucky still favors Republicans and outnumbers urban Lexington/Louisville. Louisiana is also solidly Republican with no real competitive candidates.
Connecticut could also be a problem because of Dodd's problems and Rob Simmons could be a good Republican to run against him. Illinois and New York also have potentially vulnerable races, since Peter King is a well-known candidate, although they will probably be safe. The race in Nevada is also within 5 or 6 points for Harry Reid.
One place Democrats could maybe get a seat is in Oklahoma against Coburn.
February 10, 2009 10:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Go see Nate Silver's current senate 2010 rankings. He doesn't see Vitter as vulnerable because of the lack of a compelling candidate. Dodd is estimated to only be at risk if the GOP Governor runs, which is unlikely (same case for Innouye incidentally). Kentucky is ripe becuase Bunning is Batshit crazy. He sees Kansas as unlikely unless Sebelius runs, but if the rumours for HHS play out, Kansas ain't gonna happen. AZ is likely to be safe GOP as Napolitano is out. MO is Dem favoured on account of Carnihan's announcement, OH is toss-up, NH is now the most likely dem pickup. Coburn is safe because the only OK dem that could challenge him is unlikely to run. He sees Isaksson as safe, and Burr could go down if he gets the right challenger. Recent polls confirm Boxer would likely smoke the Governator, and while Reid is unpopular, there is no compelling GOP opponent.
See http://www.fivethirtyeight.com for a more cogent and organized explanation
February 10, 2009 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's good news on boxer. I was worried about boxer, even though the governator is a fool. People buy his bs for some reason.
February 10, 2009 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I am optomistic right now. Obama is running a different kind of operation, like he ran a different kind of campaign. He was inclusive and not just playing to his base. He was running as the president of all americans and willing to listen to all people and explain his policies in a rational and clear manner. We shall see how it plays out, but I submit if he keeps doing what he is doing, the historic dynamic of midterm elections will change.
On the states that we disagree on, the demographics of some of those states are changing and people are hurting and presumably will still be hurting in 2010. The republicans have no plan or agenda other than obstruction at this point and if they keep doing that the people will see it and vote them out, I submit. Also, it will depend on the dem candidates of course.
On Georgia he is a freshman senator. If the dems put up a good candidate, they have a shot. I will submit a long shot, but a shot. The guy they had up last time almost won and he wasn't very good. North Carolina is a freshman who just squeaked by last time. The demographics of NC have changed. If a good candidate is up, they could take it. Texas is trending blue and it will be an open contest. If they can get the hispanic vote out they could take it. The alaskan senator has some ethical problems and is not popular. Good candidate and it's a shot. Kansas, if sebelius runs she will take it. Florida is ripe for a pick up. Crist will never run for the senate. He will run for reelection as governor and bide his time til a presidential run in 2016. Pennsylvania is turning royal blue. Specter is a fool and is ripe to be picked off. If he plays ball with obama, then you could take this one off the table. We shall see.
Oh, by the way portman is polling very poorly against prospective dem candidates. Also, there is speculation that colburn won't run for reelection, he isn't trying to get campaign cash. However, I don't see oklahoma. Too ruby red.
Obviously, total speculation on my part, but it is fun to fantasize.
February 10, 2009 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
The more Specter plays ball with Obama, the more likely the PA GOP is to run an ubercon in the primary, and Specter may not survive that, in which case, depending on the Dems candidate, PA is ripe for the picking.
PEACE
February 10, 2009 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
North Carolina is a good opportunity. Richard Burr is unimpressive and unaccomplished and increasingly out of step with the state's demographics. AG Roy Cooper is handsome, chrismatic and the most popular politician in the state. If Cooper is the nominee, Burr is toast.
February 10, 2009 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Speaking as a Kansan:
If Sebelius runs, she wins. Period.
If Sebelius does not run, the seat stays Republican. Period.
February 10, 2009 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
A new poll shows Dodd in trouble in 2010, mainly because of the preferential mortgages he got from Countrywide.
Before we start salivating at the prospect of Lieberman's demise, we'd better work on saving Dodd. It would be a disaster if CT loses one of its current senators . . . and it's not Lieberman.
February 10, 2009 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
As I recall, Dodd wasn't the only one in the Countrywide incident. Weren't there some Republicans getting loans as well?
February 10, 2009 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain going further right is meaningless. He won't be running for any office higher than Senator in the future.
February 10, 2009 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
I love the smell of karma in the morning...
February 10, 2009 9:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
While this makes me happy to see Lieberman getting killed, as most people expect here in Connecticut, I just hope Blumenthal won't be the Democratic nominee. He is arguably the worst Attorney General in the entire country
February 10, 2009 9:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
What are you talking about? Blumenthal has been a GREAT Attorney General. This is not a case of "anyone would be an improvement," but rather that this would be a major shift in tone, ability and policy and would be great for CT and great for the Democrats, great for CT and great for the nation. I've long wondered why he didn't run, but was also quite happy to have him continue serving in CT, where he was doing us such a great job. There's a reason why Blumenthal is so popular in CT: he works hard for the people who live there!
February 10, 2009 10:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
His opposition to gay marriage in Connecticut, his lawsuit against Stanley Toolworks, filing lawsuits against the State of Connecticut while serving as our attorney general, his grandstanding on issues that he has no legal authority, among many other things.
February 10, 2009 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
And "opposition to gay marriage"?
Offering an opinion that existing state law does not allow gay marriage (as he did in 2004) is interpreting existing law, not opposing gay marriage.
February 10, 2009 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Go Joe! Go! As in LEAVE. Sooner rather than later.
February 10, 2009 9:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
If the Democrats put up a strong candidate and so to the repugs, Liberman is history. His only hope for re-election would be no repug candidate so he can draw both repug and independent voters - not gonna happen.
February 10, 2009 9:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Can his local court rename him Liarman without a petition from him?
February 10, 2009 10:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe that's why he appeared on Morning Joe today and threw John McCain under the bus on his stimulus position. To little, to late Joe!
February 10, 2009 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Eh. Who knows what happens in the intervening 3 and 3/4 years. I hope this holds true, but polls from almost four years out usually turn out to be pretty meaningless in the long term.
February 10, 2009 10:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Except for this is Lieberman and even more significantly, it's Lieberman vs. Blumenthal. He's been a very popular AG for a long time. Conversely, people are not that happy with Lieberman. Notice he's no longer a Democrat. He got to the US Senate in the first place by colluding with conservative Republicans who could not defeat the popular Lowell Weicker (a moderate Republican) on their own and now Lieberman is there because of similar shenanigans. The democratic process ousted him in the primary. Ned Lamont would have won in a two-way race - and nearly did even so.
February 10, 2009 10:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Lieberman would've beaten Lamont in a straight up Senate race. He only lost by 10,000 votes in the primary and would've gotten most of the independents and Republicans. Lamont was too far left for many.
February 10, 2009 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
I call bullshit on this. Lamont's views on the war were/are very much in line with the majority of Connecticut voters.
Lieberman won because the Republican candidate was a colossal (but very entertaining) joke. Had the Republicans actually ran a legitimate candidate (as they tried desperately to do), it's not obvious to me, someone who lives here, that Lieberman would have won so handily.
As for the criticism of Blumenthal as "the worst attorney general in the country"?
Seriously?
I don't think the voters of Connecticut share your beliefs.
February 10, 2009 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
I wasn't arguing if the Republicans had a real candidate, I'm just saying in a general election between Lamont and Lieberman that Lieberman would win.
February 10, 2009 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
All this is true, and it does look bad for Lie. But 2012 is a long time away. It's kind of like being down in a basketball game by 15 points in the first quarter. Still three more to go.
February 10, 2009 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's going to be like 2006. The Repukes will elect him along with the nimrod Demokrats who sided with him.
February 10, 2009 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Take it from a CT Democrat...This ain't news.
February 10, 2009 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Holy crap, put down bong. It's far, far too early to be fantasizing about picking up 10 seats, or anything close to that in 2010.
The history of midterm elections is that the minority party tends to pick up seats, and if the Dems simply hold their own it will be noteworthy, given the economic and foreign policy bag of shit Bush and the GOP handed over to Obama.
Too many voters have extremely short memories, and far too many are horrendously ill-informed to boot. If the economy does not show noticeable signs of improvement by late summer '10, then Obama—regardless of how ridiculous it is—will be blamed for that by large sections of the media. That certainly will be the dominant line pushed by Fox, CNN, et al, since they're trying to blame Obama and Pelosi already. You know the WSJ will be hammering him from now until election day 2010.
And there's the situation in Iraq and Afghanistan to consider. The latter is almost a no-win position for Obama; strategically, tactically, and especially financially we're in a real bind there. Regardless of what he does, the GOP and its lapdogs in the media will mount a loud campaign of character assassination, and we all know that the lickspittle weasel Holy Joe Lieberman will be leading the sanctimonious charge. It's going to get uglier before it gets better.
February 10, 2009 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hope you're wrong, but I doubt you are -- at least in terms of what reactionaries and media allies will try to do.
Much will come to pass in the next two years. I think Obama and his team are about as capable as we could have hoped for in terms of being able to recognize and meet the challenges. We'll see how it goes.
February 10, 2009 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hold on . . . . (exhale). Yeah, I know, but it's fun. Back to the bong.
February 10, 2009 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, Afghanistan is beginning to look like a pre-surge situation. Hopefully it can be turned around before the media discovers that Afghanistan is actually newsworthy.
February 10, 2009 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Is this a great country, or what?"
:)
February 10, 2009 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Richly deserved.
February 10, 2009 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Say it ain't so Joe......
February 10, 2009 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
yeah, but joe lieberman doesnt care what the outcome of elections are. so even if he lost, he'd probably still snake his way into the senate somehow.
February 10, 2009 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is, of course, excellent and unsurprising news. I hope Lieberman does run in 2012 just so we can all have the satisfaction of seeing him humiliated at the polls and soundly rebuked by his state's voters. What a blazing hypocrite and all around asshole that guys is! Oy!
February 10, 2009 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Richard Blumenthal is another Lieberman.
Blumenthal is crusading against MySpace for letting people join anonymously, just as we can join this website anonymously.
He's investigating MySpace for the fact that sex offenders can setup accounts there, which is true of almost any website where people can setup accounts.
Investigating MySpace because someone contacting another person through it and then committed a crime, is like investigating the phone company because someone phoned another person and then committed a crime.
February 10, 2009 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
"another Lieberman"?
Hello? Your credibility has taken a serious hit.
February 10, 2009 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Did CT Attorney General Richard Blumenthal Cover For Joe Lieberman?
Thanks to CTBob and Jane at Firedrake.
http://tinyurl.com/djqplc
Blumenthal held up releasing the findings on the LIEberman (false) claim that Lamont supports hacked his website just prior to the Dem primary. It may not have had an effect in the general, but who could say for sure.
February 10, 2009 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's a gargantuan leap to go from that to "Blumenthal is another Lieberman".
February 10, 2009 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I understand Blumenthal has his own issues, but saying that anyone is "another Lieberman" is a pretty big accusation considering Lieberman's speech at the GOP convention!
Note that the same poll shows that Dodd is much more vulnerable than expected.
February 10, 2009 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry to say I told you so... for almost a decade now, and I've paid the price for it. Did you know you couldn't say anything negative about Holy Joe or most any Jewish person on the "new" progessive message boards, well you could once then you'd be Tombstoned. I had joined Democratic Underground about March 2001. With well over 20,000 posts and political toons and well established, asked to moderate, got to know every other moderator and Admin... news was circulating about Gore picking LIEberman. I started to post articles about him, the facts, and I'd put a comment that I didn't like him and why. I made tunes, which members loved, of LIEberman looking like a fool or a murderer (just as I did with most all in the GOP and media for years and everyone loved them.) I was Tombstoned after a week with no warning.
You couldn't post anything against a Jewish person no matter what they did. If started to change when AAR's Mike Malloy started telling some fact stories about LIEberman. Then the gates went open and you could start posting facts about LIEberman when AAR's Sam Seeder used almost entire shows on the filthy topic of LIEberman. Sam had that Viking horn play, oh I couldn't stop laughing!
Randi Rhodes also took many positions, using FACTS, against the pro LIEberman stance.
Look, Malloy and Randi have been fired and Sam, one of the highest rated AAR hosts had his show cancelled. WHY? I believe it's because of their stance against LIEberman/Israeli positions.
You old timers might remember me on the DU, TimesArrow. A lot of soul was spilt for you all to be able to bash LIEberman here Know the facts Truth Seekers! He was always scum and the truth was crushed by the Whorestream Media the Progessive message board Media.
February 10, 2009 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Correction, sorry, no way to edit on TPM.
should be "news was circulating about Kerry picking LIEberman"
February 10, 2009 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Look, every election cycle people start touting Blumenthal to move up to Senator or Governor. Every election cycle he makes noise about how he's interested. And then every election cycle, he backs out. He just doesn't have the desire to campaign for these jobs when he just be AG for life. So, interesting numbers re Lieberman, but probably pretty meaningless.
February 10, 2009 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed.
February 10, 2009 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not so sure that Lamont wouldn't win in 2012. Connecticut people have discovered what a loser and prevaricator Lieberman is and might very well give the prize to the guy who should have had it last time.
Lieberman is truly a despicable human being.
February 10, 2009 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Joe MUST go!
February 10, 2009 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I suppose that it is mildly interesting, but unless you have a time machine to go along with it, the information is totally useless.
February 10, 2009 3:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lieberman played his trump card--becoming an indie--in 2006. To mix metaphors, it was a Hail Mary pass, good for one play. He must have known, or at least suspected, that he wasn't going to be re-electable in 2012--especially after becoming a turncoat in 2008.
Or, he could be incredibly stupid.
February 10, 2009 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
His only hope is that he can elect a Republican president in 2012, and become Ambassador to Israel.
February 10, 2009 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink