Poll: Public's Expected Stimulus Outcome Up In The Air
With the stimulus bill set to be signed tomorrow, a new Rasmussen poll looks at what the public expects the impact to be: It's really up in the air.
A 38% plurality believe the bill will help the economy, 29% think it will hurt, and 24% expect it to have little impact. Among Democrats, 66% expect it to help, while 49% of Republicans expect it to hurt. The help-hurt number among independents is in the red, at 27%-34%.
So what to make of this? It appears the Republican attacks against the bill haven't spread beyond their base of self-identified Republicans and GOP-leaning independents -- but at the same time, the Democratic spin for the bill hasn't expanded past their own base, either. And in the middle are a whole lot of people who either don't know what to expect, or expect nothing at all.
If the bill works, expect the Democrats to win a huge political advantage. But if it fails -- or simply doesn't succeed enough -- the GOP could have their opening.
Josh
Elana
Matt
Eric
You had to go and quote Rasmussen, didn't you ?
February 16, 2009 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Since it's a Rasmussen poll, I'm taking it with a grain of salt. Wait, make that an entire salt shaker.
However, the MSM has kinda let the GOP run the debate on this, so maybe the numbers could be accurate because of it.
February 16, 2009 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
I suspect the stimulus package will do just that ... stimulate. The money in the bill can only go so far. What the economy and the repugs both really need are a swift kick in the ass. That means mucho more dollar$! If the money does kick the economic engine over a few times where it beings to sputter, that's when they need to put more in. And if the reugs pull the plug, they'll pay dearly in 2010.
February 16, 2009 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Stating black and white conclusions from a Rasumssen issue poll as if that poll reflected objective truth is intellectually questionable. Their political polling is okay, in the sense that their house effect can be measured and accounted for. Their issue polls, however, seem designed mostly to pump up Rasummsen brand recognition among Republicans and Republican leaning or subserviant journos.
At the very least, some caveats regarding their sample selection and question-framing issues, as well as the consistent disconnect between similar polling by Gallup and Pew, is not optional in my insufficiently humble opinion.
February 16, 2009 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely agree, Steve. Thanks for staying after it. We need to have reliable info, and Rasmussen has consistently shown a disconnect between reality and their findings in their issue polling. Glad you pointed it out here.
February 16, 2009 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't agree with your analysis, Eric. Obama has been telling people over and over that the bill is necessary to prevent a depression but that it won't fix our problems overnight and that it's going to get worse before it gets better.
People don't think it's going to be a panacea because Obama had said so repeatedly. By Obama's own standards, the bill will have worked even as the economy gets worse. The Republicans may be able to imply some false causal relationship as they are known to do, but whether that will stick is another question entirely.
February 16, 2009 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
What are the metrics for success?
February 16, 2009 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you're talking about the Rasmussen poll of 2/10-11, you can see the questions on pollster.com; you can see these the company used "policy directed" questions to ask the public about if they think tax cuts as opposed to "more government spending" is more stimulative--this is nothing new, Rasmussen has directed the questions into a debate about tax cuts vs. government spending in all their previous polls on the recovery package & that colors their "public support" numbers.
Pollster.com also shows Gallup did a poll at the same time, where the question didn't mention Obama & was along the lines of "do you support Congress passing an $800 package or not?" That result was 59% in favor, 33% opposed--Gallup's analysis was not that the package was losing support, rather support was split on partisan lines & that Democrats & independents trusted it, Republicans did not. That's a range we can believe in.
February 16, 2009 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I suspect that most responding to this poll probably perceive the question about helping the economy to be equivalent to asking if they expect the stimulus bill to end the recession quickly.
Of course, even if the stimulus bill doesn't end the recession soon (it won't), it will definitely mitigate short-run damage to the economy and provide investments that will help the economy in the long-run.
Long-term investing is "helping", and mitigating is "helping" too. We need this recovery bill. Too bad it couldn't have been bigger.
February 16, 2009 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
From the poll results:
"Fifty percent (50%) of voters believe the bill consists primarily of new government spending while 31% believe it is primarily a mix of new spending and tax cuts. Only eight percent (8%) think the legislation consists primarily of tax cuts."
Since the bill actually is almost 40% tax cuts and represents the largest tax cut in history, this tells me that a) the GOP/MSM spin has worked and the Dems haven't talked up the middle class tax benefits enough, b) after a strong and unbiased presidential election record in 2008, Scott is back to carrying water for the GOP on issues polling, or c) both. I'm going with C. As for Rasmussen's polling methodology, he's using a likely voter model, which is really irrelevant at this point, and his party ID split is only +1 Dems. So take the final results with a grain of salt. And yeah, his numbers have been the outlier throughout the debate.
February 16, 2009 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
The poll seems to make sense. no one knows whats going to happen as it hasn't happened yet. sheesh, the bill hasnt even been signed into law yet. give it a chance. the GOP says its failed already even when it hasnt had a chance to be implemented. what a bunch of whining cynics. and remember folks: they wish it to fail, so therefore they want the country to fail. Obama is attempting to help the country with this bill and the GOP thinks it'll fail, so therefore the country fails, and all the American people. that is breathtakingly cynical. GOP: all about politics all of the time.
February 16, 2009 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ras has been the only pollster recently to show poor support for stimulus and weak job approval for Obama... I believe Ras repub slip is showing...
February 16, 2009 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gta take Ram with a grain of salt. They were the outlier during this debate.
February 16, 2009 3:19 PM | Reply | Permalink