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Specter: Thank Me For Extracting That Pound of Flesh

If you haven't read Sen. Arlen Specter's (R-PA) op-ed in today's Washington Post, it's worth checking out. Just make sure you've already digested your breakfast, because the exultant-yet-threatening tone he uses to discuss the Senate centrists' stimulus plan may trigger some nausea.

Specter admits, candidly, that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's (D-CA) critical response to the Senate stimulus means that he and fellow centrist GOPers have pushed the envelope about as far as it can go. But his choice of words is particularly telling (emphasis mine):

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says the proposed cuts "do violence to what we are trying to do for the future," especially on education. Her objections are a warning to conservatives that more cuts would be unlikely to win House approval. They are also an admission of the high price that moderates have been able to extract for their support of stimulus legislation.

Specter admits that the three holdout Republicans -- himself, Susan Collins (ME), and Olympia Snowe (ME) -- have forced Democrats to sacrifice a substantial portion of their ideal stimulus plan in order to overcome the threat of a filibuster. But what goes unmentioned is the high price that Specter's own state could pay for his insistence on cutting the economic recovery plan.

Pennsylvania is facing a $2.3 billion budget deficit for next year, even after an assumed (but not guaranteed) $2.4 billion infusion from the federal government. Hundreds of layoffs are almost a foregone conclusion.

But the "high price" of Specter's stimulus vote doesn't leave Pennsylvania entirely in the cold. Specter laments in his op-ed that the Senate centrists' deal cuts

billions of dollars for wellness and prevention programs, including for smoking cessation, prenatal screening and counseling, education, and immunization

but he doesn't mention that he ensured an extra $6.5 billion in the stimulus compromise for the National Institutes of Health. Let's put aside the worthiness of NIH initiatives for a moment: Specter is telling us that $400 million for STD screening is wasteful, but more than ten times that amount for unspecified research grants is abundantly necessary. Uh-oh, here comes that nausea...


38 Comments

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Obama and the Dems might have got played here. Krugman and other economists are saying it's too small to work - so the GOP got the Dems to slash it which lessened it's chances of working and still voted against it. So the GOP weakened it, but the Dems still own it completely.

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Yes, obviously, Obama and the Dems should have waved their magic wands to get 60 votes.

With that said, Krugman isn't god and the unthinking acceptance of everything he says is getting tiresome. The CBO report estimates that the Senate version will boost short-term growth and that it's long-term costs will be fairly balanced.

Progressives need to stop acting like Bush circa 2001 and begin thinking about the realities of debt. To avoid the negative impact of any stimulus package, cuts to social programs may very will be necessary down the line. The more you pile on now, the more difficult it will be to achieve and sustain any sort of universal health care over the next decade.

This isn't a freebie. There are costs.

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Forget 60 votes. Forget Specter and Collins. Write it up any way the Democrats want and defy the Republicans to filibuster.

And if they play true to form, they will. Watch them pontificate from the floor while news anchors are reporting the latest job numbers. It would be just what they deserve.

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Also, your claim that the GOP "still voted against it" is flatly false. Collins, Snowe, and Specter are expected to vote for it. If 2/3 (plus Nelson and Landrieu) don't, then the bill fails anyway. The whole point is that Republican votes were necessary in the Senate, a fact that people on the left continue to deny.

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False? What do you call it when every fucking House repug and 38 of 41 Senate repug votes against a bill?

Bragging that we got 3 repugs in the Senate is crazy. In exchange for those three votes, they essentially got to write the bill. Susan Collins and Arlen Specter wielded more power than Obama, Pelosi, Reid and all the Dems combined.

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I'm sorry, are Collins and Specter not Republicans?

Bragging that we got 3 repugs in the Senate is crazy.

Uh, those 3 "repugs" aren't cherries on top of an otherwise self-sufficient sundae. This isn't a matter of "bragging." It's a matter of actually passing the goddamn bill.

Susan Collins and Arlen Specter wielded more power than Obama, Pelosi, Reid and all the Dems combined.

They (along with Nelson) determined about an eighth of the bill, the Dems determined the rest. It sucks, but that's why the mid-term elections are important.

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Collins and Specter weakened the bill by taking out some of the most stimulative parts. Yet, no one will remember that in a year. The Dems own this stinker lock, stock and barrell.

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"Slashed"??? The final Senate bill is the same size as the House bill and the same as what Obama originally requested. Some slashing.

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Well, a big chunk of the Senate bill is the AMT bullshit. That is the one aspect that I'm legitimately pissed about since it was obviously only inserted to make the package look bigger than it actually is and to justify cutting legitimately stimulative provisions.

There is no doubt that the House version is superior.

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You're assuming that the AMT fix displaced spending and not another tax cut that would have been inserted. If you've got some justification for that assumption, let's see it.

Obama's original plan called for a mix of 40% tax cuts and 60% spending. The Senate version is within a few percentage points of that.

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Well, my assumption is based on this:

It was inserted.
It increased the size of the bill beyond Obama's asking price.
To decrease it to the prior level, significant cuts were made to spending.

Frankly, there are a number of tax cuts I would prefer over the AMT fix.

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"To decrease it to the prior level, significant cuts were made to spending."

This is the part you haven't proven. Spending was initially increased significantly over the House version, to the point where it was well over $900B. In the end the tax cut/spending mix was within a few percentage points of what Obama originally requested.

And there are a number of spending areas I would prefer over some of the ones that are in there. Anyone can look at this and find something he doesn't like, but different people will find different things. It's sausage. It will never be perfect. If including the AMT fix is the price of getting it passed, I'm fine with that.

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>>The agreement stripped $108 billion in spending from Obama's plan. Changes included cutbacks in projects that likely would give the economy a quick lift, like $40 billion in aid to state governments for education and other programs.>>

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hEx3tiPJhZQLVqjNmHR_oP6FZMuwD967B31G0

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Their numbers pass 2nd grade arithmetic. Obama's original plan was for $800B. The bill passed by the Senate was $820B. If they'd stripped out $108B, wouldn't the final result be smaller?

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They "cut spending" and added in more tax cuts! That's why the Senate bill costs the same as it does in the House. There is a lot less spending and a lot more tax cuts. You do realize that tax cuts aren't free, don't you?

Besides, the bill has not "passed the senate."

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Good heavens. The House version was about 35% tax cuts. The Senate version is a little over 40%. I don't think the 5% difference spells The End of Civilization As We Know It. We're really down to the short strokes. Do you really want to hold this up for another month over that? It all it takes to get this passed is a few more nickels for tax cuts, then do it.

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You're posing a straw argument. I never said anything about holding up the bill. You asked for evidence that there had been spending cuts. I linked to a story that pointed out that $40 billion in aid to the states was gone.

You then said their math didn't work because the overall number had not changed. That's when I said "because they cut spending and added tax cuts."

In Obama's town hall meeting, he talked about the education spending the Senate had cut and said he wants them put back in. Does he suffice as a credible source to say the Senate cut spending?

FYI: the House bill was 33% tax cuts. This bill is 42% tax cuts. That's 9%, not 5% as you claim. Add in the AMT fix and you get to the number they have now which is way more tax cuts than the House bill had.

Cool if you're OK with the bill. But pretending that they didn't cut education spending and aid to the States is simply untrue.

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I usually agree with you and usually defend Obama but they got hosed on this. He started out by offering too much to the Repugs and they kept demanding more. Your opening bid should *never* be your bottom line.

If the bill had started with 10% tax cuts, we could have ended up with 25-30%. But 42% is way too high, according to most economists (except Norquist and those at the Heritage institute).

Yes, the House and Senate bills cost roughly the same but it's the composition that matters. The Senate cut $40 billion in aid to state and local governments. That is totally wacked! Just watch cops and firefighters and teachers get laid off while more money goes to corporate tax cuts and incentives to purchase a home. Hello! Some rich asshole is going to buy a home from his rich brother just to collect $15K.

The Senate bill also cut funding for repairing schools, etc. Very much needed and very much stimulative.

We needed those Repug votes but because Obama gave them so much upfront, they realized they could get even more . . . which they did.

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Summers said that they're going to push to reinsert the state funding in conference, so all is not lost.

Still, agreeing to bring on the AMT fix was a huge mistake.

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They need to take out the disastrous additional tax cuts as it will make it that much harder to enact the rest of Obama's agenda (obviously, that is the R's strategy).

I'm going to be hammering my congresspeople to restore the state emergency $ and school construction $ but I am willing to wait on the program reinvestments (head start, etc.) for a filibuster-proof budget reconciliation - as long as it comes very, very soon.

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Saw Gov. Rendell on Maddow's show last week. He said if this plan passes he's going to have to cut 3000 to 4000 positions in education across the spectrum, K-12 and state universities.

Why is the AP article on the key senate vote today showing this "centrist" package costing $827 billion? It's my understanding it's $780 billion, which is less than the House's $819 billion. I suggest if the AP report isn't accurate please send it back and tell them to correct it. But in any case if it is inaccurate don't post it on the front page.

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As I noted in another post, the thing that struck me about this op-ed is that he explains the cuts they made by saying they ought to be dealt with as part of the normal appropriations process, a catch-all justification that could be applied to any cut in any area.

But he doesn't really attempt to justify what they cut in policy terms, nor does he attempt to justify why they insisted on more tax cuts.

While I'm glad he's on board, to me this shows the utter bankruptcy -- economic, moral, political -- of the so-called "moderates'" position.

Ironically, their "compromise" -- because of how much it will weaken the impact of the stimulus --could actually cause Obama more damage over the long run than the Repugnuts who are just being asshole obstructionists.

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let's see if arlen signs up for a filibuster after the conference bill comes out somewhere between the house and senate bills.

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Progressives need to stop acting like Bush circa 2001 and begin thinking about the realities of debt.

Word straight up!

The only thing I want to hear about the economy from anyone at all - on either - is: "What can I do to help, Mr. President?"

Some progressives have acted as immaturely about all this as the Republicans have and it's just as tiresome coming from the left.

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What people keep forgetting is that this is all new money. Only in budgeting land are large increases in spending considered "cuts" because they're not as large as someone wanted.

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I don't think there's any doubt that we'll see a second stimulus bill either in 2010 or 2011. Krugman is right in saying that this bill won't bring us completely out of the hole in the near term, but that's not the same thing as "not working." There are also advantages to a staggered stimulus, even if we don't get to lay it all out on the table now.

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Agree. We also don't really know how well this is going to work. Estimates are little more than wild-ass guesses. This is a two-year stimulus. If it's insufficient we can always have a second round in a couple of years, but it makes no sense to try to anticipate now what we'll need two years from now.

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Is this an actual Tena sighting?

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Guess not.

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Reconcillation only needs 51 votes in the senate. pass the best bill that can get 51 votes and move forward. remove tax cuts and get the spending rolling. Krugman and others have said that doing too little is the real danger. Don't have a bill that is too small, won't work and will blamed on the democrats anyway. I think that Obama and the dems should make an all spending bill as a substitute to be introduced via reconcillation ready to go when the compromise bill goes down.

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This is incorrect. Any changes are subject to a point of order that requires 60 votes to waive. Without 60 votes, it's stripped from the bill.

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Kargo X has been all over this:

http://www.congressmatters.com/storyonly/2009/2/7/161443/9275/436/583

This bill will need 60.

The question becomes whether much of this stuff can be slipped back in with the *Budget* Reconcilliation process later this year. We knew that Budget is going to be massive. The question is how well the Obama Admin, and Dem Leadership, play the system to limit the power of these jackass Moderates.


JOhn

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Specter is still shaking in his boots at the possibility that Pat Toomey may primary him, either with himself as the candidate or some other Club for Growth wacko. But the dude needs to wake up. First of all, he was able to get by Toomey when things, while not looking great, were much better for the GOP. Second, his state is bluer now than it was 2 years ago. Third, Specter is at the end of his career - why go out as the guy who screwed his own state out of needed cash.

The fact is that the GOP is OWNED by Norquist/Toomey/Limbaugh/Dobson. Those guys will NEVER lead the GOP into the majority but they can get a more moderate GOPer defeated in a primary. But I don't think Specter is vulnerable to a challenge from a fringe wingnut so I'm not sure why he's being such a jerk.

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So, all it takes to be deemed serious and showered with bipartisan praise is a willingness to indiscriminately slash programs while voting for a bill that would pass with or without your vote. That's quite a racket.

http://pufferfishblog.com/

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How do you pass the bill without Specter, Collins, and Snowe?

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Obama townhall underway now. Go Mr. President!

As we head into the final stages of the debate, I'm so glad the President is standing strong against the economic ignorance and political games of the Republicans. We need investment in jobs and infrastructure, NOW- not tax cuts. Making dumb choices in the name of "bipartisanship" does not make sense, and I think Obama, having given it a good try, now realizes the Republicans are unable or unwilling to put country ahead of party.

As for the Senate "compromise" proposal -- among other cuts, the state stabilization funding and the school construction funding that the "centrists" cut from the bill would be immediately, strongly stimulative to local economies- allowing school districts across the country to both save and create thousands of teaching and construction jobs, right now. These cuts must be restored in the final version. (I am a local school board member here in Portland and we are facing devastating cuts due to imploding state budget; and we have $273 million in school renovation work ready to go, just lack the funding.)

Also, the wasteful and non-stimulative tax cuts that the Senate "centrists" put in should be removed. Tax cuts don't work. We need investment in jobs and infrastructure, not more tax cuts. I hope the President and the D's in Congress stand strong and take the additional tax cuts out.

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Sorry Folks! Obama got schooled on this one by the Rethugs. First, recall that he introduced his $800 billion proposal with the expectation that Congressional action would increase the size of the final package. Instead, the package is the same size. Second, his initial package included 35% tax cuts to 65% spending, despite the near consensus among economists (barring various wing nuts) that spending was far more stimulative. Thus, Obama's strategy was to start centrist, with the expectation that Congress would push the bill leftwards, with greater spending. OOPS!

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My comment is limited to the piece in the above post about NIH funding. As indicated above, and as trumpted by Senator Nelson, a lot of people seem to struggle with the concept of increasing the budget of the NIH in times like these, questioning how that will save jobs or help at all. My husband is a research scientist, and relies on funding from the NIH, NSF, ACS, and various other agencies to pay his salary and those of his employees in the lab, as well as to fund his research. In the past 8 years, the Bush admin did little or nothing to increase funding for any of these agencies. Funding, if it was increased at all, went up very minimally, not even keeping up with inflation (surprise, surprise -- they shortchanged science). As a result, paylines for grant funding dropped from 15-20% (meaning 15-20% of grants submitted would get funding) during the Clinton admin to a pitiful 5-10%. This has led to many scientists being forced to leave academic research and to try to make a go of it in industry. Nowadays, with the economy as it is, there aren't a lot of industry positions. These scientists are being forced out of jobs (many universities require scientists to recover 50% and upwards of their salaries from grants), and, in turn, are having to let go post-docs, lab techs, etc. The scientist is also losing his/her career, too -- in my husband's case, that would be 11 years of post-high school education (plus an addition 3 years of post-doctoral work) going down the drain, along with the livelihood of his family.

I understand people being concerned about a lot of the cuts being made in the attempts to secure a compromise, but thumbing one's nose at NIH funding doesn't take into account that increasing funding allows scientists and their labs to stay employed.

BTW, although I don't live in Nebraska, I contacted Sen. Nelson's office about this issue, as he's complained about it too -- I've gotten no response.

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