The Clock is Ticking... Part Deux
About a month ago, before the economic recovery debate started on Capitol Hill, I wondered aloud about the wisdom of setting clear, public deadlines for Congress to pass a stimulus bill.
When a politician starts the clock on a major initiative, the resulting flood of media coverage and public expectation makes it well-nigh impossible to avoid losing momentum after even a small stumble. And given the lack of consensus in the Senate -- even among Democrats -- on how to move forward, it's hard to see the stimulus bill being approved by the end of the week, as the White House and congressional leaders had hoped.
Now, anything can happen. There could be a breakthrough on infrastructure spending tomorrow that creates a palpable shift. Sens. Ben Nelson (D-NE) and Susan Collins (R-ME) could win enough fellow centrists to downsize the legislation, with the president's blessing.
But in order for the stimulus to pass the Senate by Friday, Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) would need to move to cut off debate on the bill ("filing for cloture," in Senate parlance) by tomorrow. And given how many Democrats are holding back from full support right now, I suspect that Republicans would answer that move with a successful filibuster.
Still, everything changes quickly in the Capitol. We'll keep you posted.
Josh
Matt
Eric
Brian
The whole debate, or lack there of, on this bill has been an awful mess. People are supporting this because they know they have no other choice, they are hurting, and they need help (the recent polling indicating a small drop in favorability for the bill would be much larger if this was not the situation imho).
However, not asking the American people to get involved and not trying to sell, or at least explain, it to them was, and is, a big, big mistake.
Take it to the people, Democratic Party- that means going on the TV. Clair McCaskill was brilliant on Maddow last night- more please!
If the Dems had asked for more citizen involvement they would'be had the best defense in the world for when the Repubs attacked, because they would've been attacking what the people wanted. Now they are just left holding the bag.
February 3, 2009 6:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
In principle, I agree with you. The danger is in getting drawn into the nitpicky details, which is where the Republicans want the debate to be. I think the way to avoid that is to have Obama himself sell it. Explain that anyone can find something in it that they don't agree with, but on balance it's desperately needed and we can't let it get derailed over the small stuff. Thousands are losing their jobs every day and if we take months to make it perfect it will be too late.
Then he should ask people to call or write to their elected representatives. All indications are that people are solidly in favor of this bill. Those Congressman and Senators that are opposing it need to understand the price they're going to pay. I'm still counting on the self-preservation trumping party loyalty, but they need to have their feet held to the fire to really feel it.
February 3, 2009 6:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Explain that anyone can find something in it that they don't agree with"...
Bingo! I'm with Galbraith. Pass the darn thing now. We can always come back later, add more infrastructure, transit, and then have the stupid tax cut debate as well (if we must).
As is we get 4 million jobs out of the deal. Let's come back sooner than later (6 months?) and create 4 million more and load it up with stuff for low income and the working poor (well, that's what I'd do).
February 3, 2009 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't go to the other extreme. There is a role for Congress to play. A healthy debate about what goes in and what doesn't is a good thing, as long as it doesn't drag on unnecessarily. The world won't end if this takes a couple more weeks.
But it seems to me the Republicans are trying to divert attention to nitpicky details. Anyone can look at this bill and find things they don't like, and if the R's frame the debate in those terms, they will win. The D's need to get out and re-frame the debate to the bigger issues, and I don't see anyone who can do that as well as Obama himself. The message needs to be that it isn't perfect, but it never will be perfect, and we don't have a lot of time to waste.
February 3, 2009 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
The "R"s are nitpicking details to steal the message and then it's, bam... tax cuts! I do have to disagree that Obama being the only one out front and center isn't doing anyone any favors, except for Obama himself. I say, good on him for that. However, we need more Democrats to be on the TV explaining this thing, imho. Perhaps, there is strategy with Obama being the only "D" presenter- at the moment it doesn't seem too effective.
February 3, 2009 7:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's the problem in a nutshell. They're too busy catering to business needs and ignoring the people they were elected to represent.
Perhaps the only way to get the point across to them would be for some major public banks to collapse in quick succession forcing many more people out of work and losses of savings and retirement accounts.
Seems the only way to get their attention will be for the voting public to take the hit. Faced with voter outrage, they may begin to cooperate and get the legislation passed.
By the way, Barry Frank hit them were it hurts when he fired backed at the repugs to answer up to the billions of $$$$ Bu$h was given for Iraq without answering a single question or giving any justification. Democrats need to bring up points like this up every time a repug refuses to cooperate on the stimulus package.
February 4, 2009 7:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
There seems to be no real leadership - it's a free-for-all with 100 different ideas of how the bill should look. You have the Republicans thinking Obama's desire for bi-partisanship means they can write the bill. Then you have Democrats fighting with each other over the size and scope of the bill as well. I could see a progressive rebellion if a "Gang of X" centrist Senators comes back with a proposal that is too small.
February 3, 2009 6:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
"progressive rebellion"
Yes, please.
February 3, 2009 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
"I don't belong to any organized political party. I'm a Democrat."
-Will Rogers
February 3, 2009 6:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just let all the idiots pile up the amendments, and then have Obama Veto the sum bitch. And tell them give me a clean bill and I'll sign it.
February 3, 2009 7:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Presidential Leadership - how nostalgic! That's something not seen in DC for 8 years! The repugs may have to sign up for a training seminar at the Smithsonian or Library to refresh themselves.
February 4, 2009 7:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
If the republicans have a beef with 7/100ths of 1 percent of the expenditures. Get them to admit it publically. Get them to say that's their problem with it.
Then, cut it out immediately and shove it up their collective a**'s. That's the way to deal with it. Therefore, as those things were the problem and they are gone, what's you problem?
That would be a smart tactical move and would sell big time to the american people. Can you say whig party? It would help tremendously in the battles ahead. If they are not on board 100%, then they totally look like the whiney, girly-men that they are, to quote a "famous" republican buffoon.
People just don't think strategically. Thank God Obama does or we would be screwed.
February 3, 2009 7:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why is Charlie Crist more articulate than any Democrat? I'm so confused.
February 3, 2009 7:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I actually like the guy. He really isn't that bad and hasn't been hyper-partisan. I think that he will be a formidable presidential candidate in 2016. He definitely is moderate and presidential. Look out in 2016, crist will be totally in the mix.
February 3, 2009 8:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, who knew there was a Republican who could talk in complete sentences. He did a better job of selling the bill than Obama has so far. Obama is not being clear. People want to follow the leader but he has to tell them what he is trying to accomplish with the bill.
February 3, 2009 8:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can't the senate pass regular budgets without a cloture vote? Can they jam this through as a regular budget?
February 3, 2009 7:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Only in reconciliation matters.
February 3, 2009 8:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
However, once the Senate passes SOMETHING and it proceeds to conference with the house, it's my understanding that the eventual conference report cannot be filibustered- so whatever final version the bill ends up in after conference, at that point it will only take 51 votes to send it to Obama's desk.
February 4, 2009 9:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
More than anything the Dems need to explain the very nature of this bill. 4 million jobs to VARIOUS and DIFFERENT areas of the economy. Everyone gets a little help from this bill- retail, health, green sectors, transit, financial, mining, the list goes on. Many people are seeing pork- when in actuality many of these things were put in as stimulators to different sectors of the economy.
February 3, 2009 7:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, this is f'n absurd. I dvr'd softball and they were emphasizing that obama's "approval numbers" went from 83% three weeks ago to 63% and that there was some "big problem." Tweety was saying that he had to get something done?????? He has only been in office for two gd weeks. This is really getting beyond absurd. Two weeks? Most presidents don't do 1/2 the shit that he has done in two weeks in 6 months. Obama has a huge hill to climb with these expectations. Two weeks and he is getting heat already. Give me a gd break.
February 3, 2009 8:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Josh,
THE STIMULUS PACKAGE STINKS!!!
Thank God for Kent Conrad ... he wants a REAL stimulus bill, not a grab bag of every this-or-that project that has been latched on to NOT because of its stimulus multiplier effect, but rather because it serves particular interest of this-or-that group.
If the Democrats in the House had shown some self-discipline, we would not have the mess we are now in. You should have spent less time at whacking the wingnuts and more time helping to bring the members of your own blogging community up to speed. The stimulus package is not "progressive"; it stinks.
From the Washington Post 02/03/09
Sen. OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine), a moderate who has been considered the most likely GOP vote in favor of the plan, said yesterday that she cannot support it until items that would not do enough to stimulate the economy or create jobs are dropped. "They should scrub it," said Snowe, who voted for the tax-relief portion in the Senate Finance Committee last week. She said many of the provisions were jammed into the legislation by members of the Appropriations Committee who were "trying to short-circuit the normal legislative process." Sen. KENT CONRAD(D-N.D.), chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, said the centrist group led by Nelson and Collins would target programs that the Congressional Budget Office has estimated would not spend their funding quickly. He said the list includes a number of proposals that will spend only about 10 percent of their funding in the next 18 months. "These become immediate candidates for review," Conrad said of the provisions.
February 4, 2009 3:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
No. it's your understanding of the bill and its purpose that stinks. For example, the tax "relief",so beloved of brain-dead moderates and conservatives alike, is precisely the part of the bill that is nearly useless for the purpose of stimulating the economy. And the Senate bill delivers more- fully 78%- of its spending within 18 months than the House version (and 18 months, by the way, is not some magic deadline beyond which all will be well- the crisis is much deeper than that.)
Stop listening to inane MSM bullshit and actually get a clue before you presume to lecture your betters.
February 4, 2009 6:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
The bill stinks because it contains a grab bag of projects that either WILL NOT be quickly expended or that have little value regarding stimulus persay.
Already some efforts made at improvement -- Elana Schor reports:
A glimmer of hope for something other than business-as-usual legislating emerged in the Senate last night. The proposed "repatriation" tax break, a major gift for multinational corporations with questionable stimulative value, was defeated on a 42-55 vote.
Read her post and you will see that Conrad and Feingold and Snowe and Schumer voted NEY were as Reid and joined in with the Republicans.
Steve, need to get a life. You are not God's gift to truth. Senators like Conrad are not "brain dead". Your major contribution to TMP seems to hurl invectives at people with whom you disagree -- and thereby cut off discussion.
February 4, 2009 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
No doubt the Republicans will do everything in their power to ensure that the vote is taken AFTER Barack's deadline. It's what they do.
February 4, 2009 8:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Some Republicans probably will --- but I don't think all are completely "wingnuts". My assumption is that a majority of the "grab bag" stuff will be removed quickly (to improve the bill) and then the bill will be passed in the Senate (with the support of a few "liberal republicans" (Snowe for example.) The more that sign on, the better -- because it will provide kind of "bi-partisan" solution which Obama wants to be the norm. Moreover, building "bipartisan" support to pass the bill will tend to paint a picture in the public's mind that non-supporters are not interested in problem solving.
February 4, 2009 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Further info about the role of the "centerist" in building bipartisan support. This from an AP article posted here in TPM (a short time ago, I believe)
From the AP article: "At the same time, centrist senators, including Ben Nelson, D-Neb., and Susan Collins, R-Maine, are seeking to cut tens of billions of dollars from the legislation. They're operating with the blessing of Democratic leaders, who hope a successful effort could attract some GOP votes for Obama's plan."
"Obama summoned Collins to a White House meeting Wednesday afternoon, a Collins aide said."
February 4, 2009 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's people like you who are God's gift to bullshit. Just stop.
February 4, 2009 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink