The Four Republican Senators Open to Working With Obama
President Obama talks about seeking bipartisan accord ... and he reaches out to GOP senators ... but how many Republicans are even open to the need for fixing the economy through government spending?
As The Washington Independent's Dave Weigel points out, that question seems to have been answered in a Senate vote last night. When Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) offered an alternative stimulus plan that would replace all government spending in the stimulus with a series of tax cuts, 36 Republican senators voted for it.
To emphasize the point, that means all but four GOPers were perfectly happy with scrapping the core assumption of the president's plan. Here, then, are the four Republican senators whom Obama has the best shot at working with: Susan Collins (ME), George Voinovich (OH), Arlen Specter (PA), and Olympia Snowe (ME).
Josh
Matt
Eric
Perhaps Obama having cocktails is paying off in some dividends! This passage of the SP must pay-off to bring relief to the horrid condition of our economy.
February 5, 2009 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
I will still bet a lunch that at the end of the day he gets alot more than 4 republican senators on board. They will blather and dither, but in the end alot more will vote for the plan and the speech will be along the lines of something is better then nothing and they are "compromising."
February 5, 2009 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Keep in mind that they can vote against this bill and then vote for it later when it comes back from conference. It allows them to have it both ways. I don't care, as long as it passes.
February 5, 2009 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely, they just need to speed it up and stop dithering. Pretty soon even joe the plumber won't be able to pull the economy out of the drain that it is going down at light speed.
February 5, 2009 10:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm looking forward to collecting on your bet that the stimulus will get 50% of Republicans to vote for it. Remember, that's 90 in the house and 20 in the senate.
Ummmm. I'm getting hungry just thinking about it!
February 5, 2009 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, the Repugs need a fig leaf. If the final bill includes some cuts in non-stimulus spending and a tidbit or two that conservatives like, the opponents will be able to tell their constituents, hey, the Dems bill was all screwed up, but we got in there and made them fix it.
February 5, 2009 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
BTB Oskie? Go Cowboys!
February 5, 2009 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep. Grizz, Raf & Co. are the best.
February 5, 2009 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
You just don't get it. Weren't you listening to Limbaugh? They WANT Obama to fail. They NEED Obama to fail. With Harry Reid's complicity, they will make sure Obama does fail.
Remember McCain's slogan, "Country First!"
Like everything from Thug Land, it is a lie---they are in lockstep for their PARTY first. Case in point---Judd Gregg. Won't give up his seat to a Democrat even when the President calls him up during the worst economic crisis since the Depression, and what is more, won't even give the President who is promoting him, a vote of support on the bill to salvage the economy!!
So why does Obama even want him? Under the influence of Doris Goodwin's book "Team of Rivals" the President is trying to imitate Lincoln. But Lincoln appointed a team of RIVALS, NOT ENEMIES!
President Obama needs to channel FDR. And we could all benefit from re-reading FDR's inaugural speech. Makes Obama sound like Newt Gingrich by comparison.
February 5, 2009 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Simple answer, republican and independent voters. That is his audience. Who cares about the wignut leaders and their lies and distortions. It's the republican and independent voters that he is playing to.
February 5, 2009 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
And that vote should tell Obama that there is no use trying to work with Republicans. I hope President Obama was paying attention.
At least some of the Senate Blue Dogs didn't vote along with them.
February 5, 2009 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Now that is silly. He at least has more than 60 votes to get passage if you spin it the way it is being spun by elana and he needs at a minimum a handful of republicans on board, which he has. I read it differently. Also, that vote says exactly the opposite, he definitely has 4 votes at a minimum, which he needs to get passage.
Oh no! The sky is falling.
February 5, 2009 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think Obama understands that the Republicans are going to oppose him. That's what they do. But they can either oppose him on policy or on process.
He understands that he can not win the argument if they are excluded from the process and the debate because it runs 100% counter to his campaign promises of bipartisanship.
He can win the argument on the merits of the proposals, after all that's how he won the election. He can, and I think will when the time is right, take the argument directly to the American people.
February 5, 2009 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, you think those Blue Dogs are going to vote along party lines if Obama makes his brand toxic in Republican states and districts? Collins and Snowe are irrelevant if we lose Landrieu, etc..
February 5, 2009 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
You know, that is an excellent point. I didn't think about that one. That's another good reason to be playing to the republican voter. Excellent point.
February 5, 2009 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is the only reason the Democratic Brand isn't toxic in many Republican States.
February 5, 2009 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think that Obama woke up and realized that what ever he wants he needs to be on CAMPAIGN MODE. He needs to go on offense and answer any negative attack back that day.
Obama can't do it alone but needs to have the Senate Democrats out there every single day touting the plan.
February 5, 2009 10:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
I bet you were one of the ones hollering about how Obama was a pussy for not stooping to the level of his accusers.
I'm with Michael A on this one. All y'all are making way too much out of this.
This plan doesn't need huge support it just need to pass.
February 5, 2009 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
What this vote does show is that the Republicans know they cannot mount a successful filibuster. It's a frank admission of their powerlessness. Lacking any power to actually affect the outcome, they're retreating into symbolic acts of commitment to their purported principles, because that's all they got left.
Given that, the question is whether when the chips are down and an actual vote on an actual bill is happening, when the issue whether there will be a stimulus bill or whether there will be no stimulus bill, the ones who are up for reelection in states with spiralling economic distress will have the cojones to vote this way again.
That said, I don't discount the possibility that all 36 will vote against the main bill if they think they can have their cake with the base and then eat it with an amnesiac general electorate (i.e. if they think only the base will remember or care about their "no" vote). At this point, a lot of congressional Republicans are so completely disconnected from objective reality that rational actor models are useless in predicting their behavior.
February 5, 2009 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've never met a rational actor/model before. They were all either models who irrational thought they could become actors, or vice versa.
February 5, 2009 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, I have. They're the ones who get their waiter jobs in the expensive restaurants where the tips are better.
February 5, 2009 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
On your last line, yes and know. We are only at the beginning of a long, hard struggle for the next two years prior to the next election. They are politicians after all and their number one interest is their own survival. They want to avoid any primary challenges from the hard right by acting like hard asses; however, that may not pay off in the long run when they start to get hounded by their constituants and they start seeing poll numbers prior to the next election that they are totally in big trouble. Some will wake up before it is too late I suspect. Others will go down in flames, because the people won't take it anymore and we are in a huge crisis that needs adults involved to solve it, not petulant children.
February 5, 2009 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
The thing is, at this point I truly question whether most of the remaining Republicans in Congress whose seats are in jeopardy are capable of correctly evaluating data and drawing the correct conclusions from it. They're still in "its the branding, not the product" denial and they evaluate everything from that perspective. That kind of denial often takes hold in enterprises on their way to bankruptcy, and whether they get over it is the difference between a successful Chapter 11 and Chapter 7.
And as for those who can still evaluate data rationally, they're mostly representing constituiencies that are so deeply Red that being a neanderthal is actually rational, from a self-interest standpoint, so it comes to the same thing.
February 5, 2009 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
You may be right. However, I don't believe that this economic meltdown is not affecting deep red districts as well. It is nationwide and people are hurting big time in areas from deep red to deep blue and everywhere in between. I guess we will see how it plays out, but I believe that the republicans are playing with fire, big time.
I still think constituents should bombard their red state reps and senators with e-mails linking to the history of the whig party. Maybe that will wake them up. That history is very similar to what is going on with republicans today. It is fascinating when you think about it.
February 5, 2009 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Republicans lining up behind Palin, Joe the Plumber, and Demented Demint are standing in the wrong line. They think they are at the front of the booth to THROW the balls but they are in the line for the chair that drops in the tank. The best friend that taught them all their tricks, Karl 'the math' Rove, is outta there and they don't know it. If the 'crisis' gets much worse it will be affecting voting in two years. Do you think the Republicans even know what they are doing? Has it registered with them that the phrase 'highest unemployment rate in 26 years' means something to the people if not them?
The media will end up being the only people listening to that pack of hyenas.
February 5, 2009 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Michael seeing as there's some polling data showing the populace starting to buy their nonsense
why not send them the chart by Moodys.com that shows tax cuts are the least effective form of stimulus? It may be satisfying to send them snarky whig posts but that will be as effective at getting their votes as tax cuts are as stimulus.
February 5, 2009 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
And they have good reason to behave this way. The "branding" philosophy dovetails beautifully with cable news coverage. What gets covered is the beautiful book cover, not the contents.
February 5, 2009 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bingo!
The reality is this is about corporate interests which control DC vs. the electorate. The reason the GOP 'branding' msg so nicely dovetails with the media is becasue the media is owned by corporate interests as well.
This is why Obama has to do an end run around the media as he did during the campaign. Rasmussen now has some poll out saying that support for the stimulus pkg has fallen to 32%! Needless, to say that is driven by the onslaught of negative talking points raining down from cable and netwoork news talking heads.
Obama has to let the public see how the repubs are cutting the very programs the public needs, like healthcare for the unemployed. Who in the world is against that. If the stimulus package has no more for that, it means the state has to pick up those costs, and the states have budget deficits so the taxpayers have another burden.
The masses are being organized by Obama and he is giving the repubs enough rope to hang themselves so that it is blatantly clear that they have no interest in doing what the voters wanted by electing Obama.
February 5, 2009 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
If they got 61 nays on this without Gregg and Kennedy, I think Obama is in good shape to get this passed. I'm assuming 61 nays would all vote for cloture at least right?
One thing I wanted to point out that I find hilarious.
Who's Daschle? heh
Amazing what a couple news cycles will do.
February 5, 2009 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sometimes Senators and members of the House will vote for bills which seem--or actually are--philosophically incompatible with one another. So it's possible some who voted for this alternative might eventually vote for a stimulus package with spending in it as well.
Still, this is helpful information. Thanks for pointing it out.
February 5, 2009 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
I always thought it was foolish to try to sway a large number of Republicans. Just get your 60+ and get the bill passed.
Maybe Obama's outreach will pay off in the long run, but I don't see the far-right Republicans who now dominate the party in Congress voting for future spending/stimulus bills any more than they are now.
February 5, 2009 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
On your last statement I think you're probably right, unfortunately. But this is an argument that Obama needs to win by going to the public. The question is: what is the best response to our current situation? What he is proposing or what the diehard, Republican reactionary ostriches want? I believe he will win it. He appears to realize that he needs to take his case to the public right now.
February 5, 2009 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, I definitely agree that he should leave D.C. and make several speeches in different states. He's hugely popular and a better communicator than most of the Dems in Congress combined.
I can't believe that they didn't plan to have him do this from the beginning. I know his team is still getting adjusted, but they should have known this was coming.
February 5, 2009 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not sure whether I read it here or at Think Progress a week or so ago
This is the Norquist Solution at work. To paraphrase, when the President asks for cooperation, cooperate with Cut Spending, Cut Taxes period
Now they're set up
Make em pay
It is all you can do at this point
Put the fear of God into them. The surest way to make a politician act, better than any bribe, scare the hell out of them
Time to go to the mats
February 5, 2009 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
A question for Elana or anyone else
The 60 vote requirement - cloture or PAYGO?
I had been under the impression that this bill was moving outside PAYGO rule as an emergency stimulus ie a point of order that it didn't paygo would require 60 votes
But an AP writer claimed almost equivocally that a paygo objection would lie.
This is important because assuming Reid has the guts and the go-ahead, to force a cloture vote, the Republicans have to filibuster and to filibuster they must hold the floor and never yield
Day after day the news headline "GOP continues to block Recovery and Reinvestment" is better than any amount of paid political advertising IMO
February 5, 2009 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
No idea, but as a rule of thumb, I've found that what AP says and fact coincide only by coincidence.
February 5, 2009 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's a Grand Canyon scale of an assumption.
"Reid has the guts". He may have the guts, but not the inclination.
February 5, 2009 1:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
In other words, there are four GOP Senators in blue states who know that playing politics on this like the rest of the GOP would put their jobs in jeopardy. Smart move.
And we'll take you down anyway.
February 5, 2009 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
By the way, could somebody tell why I had to learn about Obama's WaPo editorial from Joe Freaking Klein? I see a headline up about it on the newswire, but come on guys, is this not at least as important as votes on symbolic amendments in the Senate making snarky comparisons of Larry Summers to Dick Cheney?
February 5, 2009 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
My guess is that you could add Newman (R-NH) to the moderate / workable list. I can't imagine that they would have agreed to the Gregg post without a clear idea of where she'd go on the stimulus.
February 5, 2009 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Another angle would be to empower Snowe and Collins to bring the centrist bill more in line with their desires. Snowe and Collins could say - Look my party will vote against it en masse (and point to this vote) but I'm willing to break from it if you give me this, this and this.
This looks like it's going to be the same deal as with the House - Obama compromises and the GOP still votes against it.
February 5, 2009 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Concern troll much?
February 5, 2009 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
While Obama's attempts at bipartisanship was something he needed to at least try, it's time to move on. He apparently has the votes to get his plan passed, so get it to vote, pass it and sign it into law. If it works, he'll get praised whether 0 Republicans voted for it or 30 did. And if it fails, he'll get blamed, again regardless of how many Republicans voted for it.
Obama and the Dems have control of both the White House and Congress, the latter by a great margin. They're the ones who will be held responsible, both in 2010 and 2012, if this mess doesn't get fixed. I'd rather them fix this mess and get criticized for lack of bipartisanship than not fix the mess and get blamed for that.
February 5, 2009 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am holding to the opinion that President Obama is doing the right thing in the right order, and at the same time is allowing the GOP to discredit itself before the very eyes of the nation.
Obama knows that the vast majority of republicans are going to be against him for the next four years, every step of the way.
But the four swayable centrist GOP senators will be the key. Remember: if Franken wins in MN, then only 1 of those 4 GOP senators needs to side with the DEMS on a cloture vote and then the desired legislation will pass. Boom. And the statistical probability that at least 3 of those senators will be amenable to crossing party lines more and more often in the next four years. Voinovich is retiring and has nothing to lose by voting in conscience, especially from the bellwether state on the union that is turning bluer and bluer from cycle to cycle. The two senators from ME are, for all intents and purposes, centrist democrats and are wearing the wrong lapel pins.
But I am already reading on too many websites - postings by democrats who are bellyaching far too early and for no real reason. For crying out loud, the man has been in office just over two weeks and I have never seen a president move as fast during this time as Obama has.
In other words, take one step back, breath and stay calm. This is how Obama won and this is how we as a party will prevail.
February 5, 2009 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink