The Tyranny of Overscheduling
I suspected last week, when Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, rolled out his incomplete bank bailout plan that he did so because it was on the schedule and nothing was going to move it. Today's much lauded piece in the Washington Post confirmed my suspicion. I spoke with a former Clinton Treasury official who was amazed that the Geithner thing got dumped just at the time when Obama could have been taking a victory lap for getting the stimulus deal all but closed. (This was before the Judd Gregg withdrawal but that's another matter.)
The larger point here is the administration's deeply ingrained habit of sticking to the schedule. That instinct served them well during the campaign when they didn't respond to every idiotic event and stuck with their plan. Pressure to attack Hillary Clinton more viscerally or to sign on to the gas tax holiday? Fuggedaboutit. Stick with the plan. But the tendency to stick with the plan has it's downside as we saw with Geithner's less-than-stellar roll out. Over the weekend, David Axelrod said that the stimulus signing was long scheduled to be out of town but was there really a need to give the right ammunition for delaying the signing of a bill that Obama said was urgent? The right's point is goofy. The money couldn't have gone out the door over a federal holiday. Still, the optics aren't great.
Back to my original point, sticking to the schedule isn't always wise.


















That overcheduling an be a eal itch
February 17, 2009 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I ate it hen hat appens.
February 17, 2009 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very funny. I am sure that he doesn't get it as well. Do you think that he gets paid by the word? His posts are exceedingly long, uninformative generally and boring.
February 17, 2009 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
But credit where credit is due: He did in fact attribute a quote in a previous post today. One. To date that's once.
carry on
February 17, 2009 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I want Greg to come back....
February 17, 2009 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cosign. By the way, any bets on how long it takes to notice?
February 17, 2009 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks - I thought I was the only one wondering WTF Cooper's doing at TPM. It sure as hell ain't in the same universe as the great stuff Elana posts.
Predictable I guess that a TIME and Politico alum, and one who got caught in the Judy Miller trap, would be boring, turgid and reeking of Village CW, but Cooper's even worse than I expected.
And the lack of proofing and refusal to correct blatant grammatical errors is egregious.
February 17, 2009 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Portfolio. Not Politico. Sheez.
February 17, 2009 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
But now "The Tyranny of the Nineteenth Letter of the Alphabet" hath ended.
February 17, 2009 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, okay. That was a very fascinating point about the White House's schedule and its minutae. I was supremely engrossed in your words.
I shall go and drink a glass of white wine to ruminate on your post.
February 17, 2009 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
You must be commenting on another post. This is about the White House's chedule. Although it isn't clear from the article, I believe it is a small bite-sized round of Cheddar Cheese traditionally consumed on or around Christmass.
February 17, 2009 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Take cover! The "Tyranny of S" has resumed.
February 17, 2009 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
The bigger point may be that our Treasury Secy needs to speak up if he needs more time and more help instead of making a semi-ass of himself. This is not the way to impress folks, perhaps even Obama.
February 17, 2009 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
You guys are brutal.
But I'm hopping on the bandwagon anyway. If Obama had deviated from the chedule, would the post about the "eeming lack of disclipline in the White House" have been far behind?
February 17, 2009 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
so because the media can't help themselves but to swallow yet another nonsensical republican talking point, this time about obama not signing the bill the moment it passed, then scheduling must indeed be a real problem for the white house? why do democrats insist on doing things that give you no choice, but to buy into republican complaints about everything democrats do, like breathing? do you seriously get paid for this?
February 17, 2009 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Totally agree. This "why did we rush the bill if Obama's going to take Valentine's Day off" nonsense is being posted by every winger on earth. It's so trite and silly.
Congress rushed because they're on recess. Duhhh!
And the media, including lefties, have so little original thought that they continue to peddle weak, silly shit like this as really hurting Obama when real people (not us loons on the blogs) don't give a crap.
February 17, 2009 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Working with deadline pressure brings out the best, and worst, of people. As a dedicated reporter, you should realize that more than most, Mr. Cooper.
And Geithner, while he's obviously had other things to worry about, was given primary responsibity for figuring out what to do with the second $350B TARP money from when he was nominated shortly after the election in November. Finally, one of the selling points for his nomination was that he had worked with Paulson as head of the NY Fed on the frist half bailout. So he has had since last September to figure this out.
If he wasn't prepared in the weeks and months he had to figure this out, then maybe someone else should try.
February 17, 2009 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or the Obama administration doesn't give a crap about 'winning the day' and what matters is whether any plan delivers results in the long run.
Geither announced what he had, made a good call about not being able to fix the insolvency problem with a 'bad bank', and the markets spit the bit when he came to the table that had the American people in mind, not bank shareholders (newsflash! they're not synonymous). Axelrod said Geithner gave the strategy and will lay out the tactics within the strategy over time. The press wants the tactics now and Wall Street wants a get out of jail free card. Both got neither so they whine. Let me get out the world's smallest violin and play a bit for you all.
The 'mistake' of keeping to schedule means you get to move on to the next issue. The press is still obsessing about the optics of Geithner's rollout and Obama has gone to Chicago and then to Denver and is, you know, governing!
Is Geither sailing smoothly in one direction now after a choppy start or not? That's the story, not 'OMFG choppy start!'. Who really gives a crap in the long run other than the press? It's like a Biden gaffe. They aren't really gaffes, just what wannabe PR flack reporters think are gaffes, true statements that aren't a dish of vapid sunshine or a paint by numbers list that tells people what to write. If Geithner gave a paint by numbers list, the same people would be saying he's made the mistake of being inflexible and too specific.
February 17, 2009 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rolling out an incomplete plan was stupid. Really stupid. It plays up the criticism that Obama and Geithner are too green to manage the crisis. The fact is that Geithner is stalling having to bring out the hammer and nationalize banks.
Japan's GDP dropped over 12%. They are the third most powerful buyer nation in the world. They buy crap... a lot of it. And they hold dollars... a lot of them. The interdependency of the world economy on a the foolish idea of gambling on artifical odds using workers' retirements is going to create a crash whose seismic impact will be felt for a generation. I hope they suck on it. If Geithner can't man up and hand pink slips to his foolish criminal buddies, then he needs to go home. Hire me... I would have no problem kicking them in the teeth and starting over.
February 17, 2009 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not only is it stupid because it creates bad "optics," it was also stupid because the market reacted with a panic sell-off that could crater the very job market that Obama is seeking to rescue. Either hire the personnel and conduct a stress test and take over the insolvent banks or give them so much money that we are a bunch of Weimar douchetards that can't afford soap to clean our behinds.
Something's got to give.
February 17, 2009 3:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please. The rollout had been schedulded and announced. The plan wasn't ready as of that date. There were no good options. Either produce a sketchy plan and watch the market tank in panic over the uncertainty of it all and read Krugman fuming about it or postpone the rollout and watch the market tank in panic over the uncertainty of it all and then read Krugman fuming about it.
February 17, 2009 4:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree and basically felt so shortly after it happened. I alao think it's important to point out that it was a newbie-administration-type mistake. I think that's important to point out because the whole "Obama's team is genius like we've never seen before" thing, which one sees a lot of in the blogosphere, creates unreasonably high expectations.
February 17, 2009 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know we all tend to be US-centric on debating the politics of scheduling, but the tyranny of the schedule doesn't appear to be some Obama-team obsession with sticking to a pre-arranged game plan. It was Geithner's trip to Rome.
He had to have something out there before his trip. Otherwise every question in Rome from the press would have been "what's the plan Stan". And every sentence he uttered -- or the other finance ministers uttered -- would have been scoured by the markets for hints of what would be in the Treasury plan.
His announcement of the basic concepts around which his plan is to be designed served as a placeholder so he could engage in discussions with his counterparts in Rome without those discussions being a source of constant market destabilization.
People seem to forget, when critiquing either Paulson or Geithner, that there's no bright line between the "US banking system" and the "global banking system." With the European banks looking to be in even more trouble than the big US banks (collapse of Eastern European currencies, anyone?), any Treasury plan must take into account potential contagion and how financial institutions with cross-border operations might "game" any system set up on one side of the Atlantic or the other. So he has to take into account what the others are likely to do -- or more to the point, what they're likely not to be able to do, in the face of continuing deterioration of their financial institutions.
So I'll cut Geithner a lot of slack about the scheduling.
But I am disheartened that Treasury was at this late date still exploring ways to price toxic assets -- that's been an obvious non-starter since the day after the "details" of Tarp 1 emerged. No technical mechanism is going to arrive at a Goldilocks price that is high enough for the banks to be willing to sell but doesn't represent a huge taxpayer-funded backdoor recapitalization for the benefit of the banks' shareholders. Hopefully, the "stress test" phase will produce a triage of the US banks which we've needed to do -- openly, not in a dark basement of Tarp or the FDIC -- so we can send some to the morgue, put others in the hopsital, and give a fairly reliable "certificate of good health" to the rest.
February 17, 2009 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Matt,
Sorry to sound like a nitpicker, but it's about time you learned the difference between "it's" and "its." You get it wrong at least once in almost every item you post. You're supposed to be a journalist, for crying out loud. And you're writing for a reputable outfit now.
February 17, 2009 6:26 PM | Reply | Permalink