You're absolutely correct Brian (except about what Micheline said -- she and you, and I, all *agree*). Gillibrand would never have won the seat in the first place if John Sweeney hadn't almost literally knee-capped himself(well, actually the violence was supposedly directed toward his wife). He'd been the only one to hold the seat since the district was re-created, but this region of the state is about as solidly Republican as you can get. Gillibrand's victory in her re-election, over Sandy Treadwell, was a surprise but *she* was riding on Obama's coattails IMHO.

Another factor is that a lot of otherwise loyal Dems are furious at Paterson for selecting her - both the selection itself (she's seen by a number of people as a "Palin pick" -- pretty and vivacious but not much other than ambition underneath the attractive hair-do) and how he went about it. So voting Republican as a way to 'chastize' him or show disgust about that whole mess is being discussed openly. In fact, I was one of those doing the discussing and seriously considering it ....... BUT ...... if Joe Biden wants my vote for Murphy, he's got it!

So, Obama/Biden support for Murphy is going to help .... but whether it will help enough is an open question. But if Murphy doesn't win, it's going to be because of local factors (history, ideological leaning of the district, name-recognition, anger at Paterson, anger about the Gillibrand pick). That won't stop the Reps from trumpeting their message ... but when has reality played a big part in what they say?