Both Parties Playing Expectations Game In NY-20
It's clear that both parties expect a close race in today's special election for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's old House seat, because they're both downplaying expectations -- though Dems seem just a bit more confident.
The DCCC has released a detailed memo talking about all the obstacles they face here: The big GOP advantage in voter registration, Republican state House Minority Leader Jim Tedisco's name identification against the first-time Dem candidate Scott Murphy, and the early views from pundits that they would have a tough time holding it.
On the other hand, the memo boasts of just how far Murphy has come: "After more than $2 million in negative advertising against Murphy, how did NY-20 become competitive in eight short weeks? Quite simply, he ran a better campaign." They also credit Murphy's support for the Obama agenda, as having taken him this far: "This campaign was a fight between Murphy's message of bipartisan progress on the economy and Tedisco's embrace of Republicans' 'just say no' obstructionism."
Meanwhile, House GOP Leader John Boehner spoke with reporters this morning, and commented on the race. "It is going to be a very close election, but it's between those two candidates up in New York. I hope Jim Tedisco wins," said Boehner, adding: "it is a Democrat seat. President Obama won this seat during the presidential election last fall."
This is a bit different from the Boehner of a month ago -- when Tedisco was ahead by 12 points in independent polling. At the time, Boehner said the race was "a giant opportunity for us to let America know that America is on our side."
Again, this is all about both sides preparing for the possibility of defeat -- and plans will change once a victor is known. If Tedisco wins, expect it to once again be "a giant opportunity for us to let America know that America is on our side," as far as the Republicans are concerned, while the Dems will talk about the uphill climb they faced. And if Murphy wins, the Democrats will greet it as a huge affirmation of the Obama agenda, while the GOP will dismiss it as a non-event in a "Democrat seat."
Josh
Matt
Eric
Brian
I posted this below, but I really would like an answer so I'll post it here, too:
Does New York not require Congressional reps to live in the district they represent?
I don't understand. Here in Kentucky we ousted a repug state Senator for not living in the district, and got a repug Lt. Gov. candidate dumped for not living in the state long enough.
Although Ed Whitfield in the First has been living in Florida for years while repping KY in Congress.
March 31, 2009 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kentucky or any state can put such a requirement for the state legislature, but not Congress.
Article I of the Constitution does not impose a district-residency requirement, only a state-residency requirement. The states cannot impose any additional qualifications for office.
There are a handful of members right now who don't live in their districts, or didn't at the time of their election, from both sides of the aisle.
March 31, 2009 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric - thank you very much.
March 31, 2009 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
This posturing tells you it's going to be razor thin. Given the 70K advantage Tedisco had, and that I think the GOP is more motivated to win if for no other reason that to "send a message" I'd be surprised if Tedisco doesn't win - by 3-4% even.
March 31, 2009 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
FireDogLake is reporting: "The Dutchess County Clerk’s Office has confirmed to FDL that Tedisco’s people have filed an ex parte motion, the effect of which would be to investigate and overturn today’s election results, should the outcome not be to Republicans’ liking."
Is anything more known about this?
Pete
March 31, 2009 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I look forward to the legal battle should Murphy win.
March 31, 2009 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, Mr. Boner, if America actually was on your side, why would you need to let them know it? Wouldn't they already know?
Idiot.
March 31, 2009 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm really starting to believe this clown graduated cum laude from the Sarah Palin School of Coherent Speech.
March 31, 2009 6:38 PM | Reply | Permalink