Franken Has Good Day, Potentially Netting Over 30 Votes
Al Franken's lawyers may well have just had a very productive day, netting a good chunk of votes for their side.
Franken attorney Kevin Hamilton was questioning Duluth elections director Jeffrey Cox today, and they went through over 30 rejected absentee ballots that fit solidly into one category: Ballots where the voter and the witness signed the envelope with different dates marked down. Most counties had actually included these ballots -- though Duluth did not -- and the judges themselves have now ruled this type of vote to have been valid.
Ballot after ballot, Cox confirmed that this had been the only reason these votes were rejected, and that in his judgment there was no other defect. It was also confirmed that these ballots were going to be counted during the review process this past December, but were vetoed by the Coleman campaign under the state Supreme Court's controversial decision that gave the campaigns this power.
Since Duluth is heavily Democratic to begin with, and the general assumption is that both sides are advocating for votes that are for themselves (and were vetoing ballots believed to be for the other guy) this means Franken could very well have just gained over 30 votes, padding his official 225-vote lead to a landslide margin of...255, plus a handful of other Franken ballots that the court is prepared to count.
For his part, Coleman lawyer Joe Friedberg used his cross-examination period to further go over the fact that mistakes have been made in the election, as part of the new Coleman push to have the whole result thrown out. Hamilton countered by having Cox affirm that the city is thorough in its training and procedures, and that mistakes are inevitable -- that is, demanding a perfect election is to demand the impossible.
In other news, lead Franken lawyer Marc Elias said during his post-court press conference that the numbers are coming in on the number of 3-A ballots found, another category of ballots that could potentially be counted after the localities searched for them after a court order last week.
As it turns out, the amount of 3-A's found is likely to be less than 100, Elias said, though firm numbers aren't yet available: "As we suspected all along, it's not going to be a huge number."
As I've noted before, it's unclear who will benefit from those votes, though it seems more likely to work out in Franken's favor. But either way, it appears it won't have much of an impact at all.


















"Joe Friedberg used this cross-examination period to further go over the fact that mistakes have been made in the election,"
Funny that these mistakes were ones actually caused by Colman's legal maneuvering....
March 5, 2009 6:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes and no. These ballots were originally excluded on Election Night because of practices by the local officials, which had nothing to do with the Coleman campaign.
Then they were about to be counted in December and January, after the locals reviewed the law and thought better of it during the recount. That's when the Coleman campaign stepped in.
March 5, 2009 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're right, but there's enough argument still remaining to plead irony.
March 6, 2009 10:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hopefully Franken's camp brings in a statistician who could provide models whereby showing the probability that honest mistakes and innocent errors would occur equally for and against all sides and would likely result in a net vote change of zero.
He also needs to emphasize the point that Minnesota has election law right down to the case of a tie and yet doesn't allow for a recount in his pressers. The recount was automatic under Minnesota law, and the recount found Franken had won.
March 5, 2009 7:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is currently a topic of conversation over a DKos: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/3/5/172034/9254/665/705143
March 5, 2009 7:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, Coleman's whole game lately has been trying to get the court to look not at the expectation, but the level of confidence. In other words, the question becomes how high the variance and the number of errors is.
You're right, assuming the mistakes weren't somehow systemically unbalanced the expectation should be a zero vote shift. And of course there has been no allegation of such an imbalance. But that would be Coleman trying to prove he won, which of course this whole revote plan avoids; they have switched to claiming that no one can tell "for sure." So, with any number of "honest errors" above the margin, there is some probability that the count is off by more than the margin.
It's been a long time since I did statistics, so I can't remember how to figure the percentages. I'm pretty sure it's relatively simple...just looks like a binomial distribution to me. But my guess is that it takes a whole lot of errors before the chance of Coleman being the true winner becomes even worth considering...which would explain why they haven't tried at all to quantify the "doubt" they are suggesting.
March 6, 2009 4:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
All I want to know is HOW CLOSE IS THIS TO ENDING.
March 5, 2009 7:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm with you! And it better not end with a Democratic Congress seating the loser, Coleman! And for the record, if Coleman had won, he would already be in the Senate. But he lost.
Since the repubs are now blaming the recession on Obama, who knows what embarrassing BS they will pull out about this election. But it is irrelevent! The Dems have to get over the idea that being a good loser is the right way to go even when you win!
March 5, 2009 7:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please, dear god, let it be over!
March 5, 2009 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Prepare yourselves. There will be Republican Senators who will never recognize Franken as a legitimate Senator and will bitch about it every day for the next five and a half years. Worse yet they will claim, without success but to annoy us anyway, that Franken's vote does not count and will even restate vote totals by subtracting his.
March 5, 2009 8:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sure that this approach will work marvelously and will leave Senator Franken feeling sullen, withdrawn and uncommunicative.
March 5, 2009 8:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, I don't think so. It might make his wit a tad more biting, though.
=D
March 5, 2009 8:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who gives a flying rat's ass about them or their perception of his legitimacy? Having had to endure eight years of President Blutarsky (who was not only illegitimate but utterly unfit)we've finally exorcised this party down to its Joe the Plumber/Moose Woman farcical sequelae. They're so marginalized they're barely footnotes. Who fucking cares what they resent?
March 6, 2009 8:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly. Good God, this is the most unbelievably wearisome topic ever.
March 6, 2009 8:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
How long? Not long.
March 5, 2009 8:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was wondering how many ballots they covered today. It seemed like a whole lot more than 30! On all but the last few they said, "And this is a ballot that was vetoed by the Coleman campaign?" (or words to that effect). Friedberg tried to get in his pitch for the ballots that the panel said they would not hear arguments on weeks ago. Hamilton objected and was sustained again. Yesterday when the Franken team objected to the introduction of the same material, they complained that it was the 14th time they were objecting to the introduction of this material. Brownie points to team Coleman for beating their collective heads against a brick wall on a daily basis.
If the brightness of the day can be measured by the shortness of Ginsberg's presser, then today was excellent!
March 5, 2009 8:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope Franken is taking notes. This could be the basis for a very funny book.
March 5, 2009 9:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been thinking about that. It's weird that he played it so straight for the election and tried to leave the comedy behind him, but the comedy seems to be following him.
March 5, 2009 10:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
As Sam Axe would say, spies and Republican Senators are a bunch of bitchy little girls.
March 5, 2009 10:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
If this truly is over in two to three weeks as Elias has said then what will I do with all that extra time? I wonder what the ECC will do as they go through Motions Friday tomorrow afternoon?
March 6, 2009 1:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
News today - Franken has moved for dismissal. His briefs point out that the burden of proof was on Coleman and that Coleman has only shown that 7 votes for him were improperly excluded. Ergo, Coleman has not proven his case, no need for Team Franken to proceed.
If I'm the court, I'd be really considering this. Draw their jurisdiction very narrowly - we're only here to determine who has the most votes, as per statute. Since, after Coleman rested his case, Franken is still ahead, we deliver a directed verdict. Timmeh, issue that certificate!
Don't give Team Coleman any more time to dick around. They didn't prove their case.
March 6, 2009 8:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Coleman's opposition in up on the court website. Remarkably, no where does Coleman acknowledge that he has the burden of proof.
March 6, 2009 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink