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Minnesota Analyst: Cornyn's Threat Of "Years" Without Senator Could Backfire On State GOP
There's one thing that has be asked about NRSC chairman John Cornyn's bold statement that it could take "years" to resolve the Minnesota Senate situation: While it would obviously benefit D.C. Republicans to keep Al Franken out of the chamber, wouldn't this also trigger a huge backlash against the state GOP?
I asked Prof. Lawrence Jacobs of the University of Minnesota what sort of problems it could create for the state Republicans, if the national party were to keep the state without full representation for such a long time. And here's what he said:
Senator Cornyn's strategy may make political sense for Washington Republicans eager to maintain their leverage through the filibuster. But this national strategy could backfire in Minnesota against state Republicans coming into a big 2010 election year. Usually, the president's party loses seats in the Midterm election but a backlash against Minnesota Republicans could hurt them in the race for Governor and for the competitive congressional races for the seats currently held by Michele Bachmann and by first year Representative Erik Paulsen.
It should be noted that this isn't really Cornyn's problem -- there is no Senate election scheduled for 2010 in Minnesota. But could such an impasse really imperil Bachmann? Nooooooo!
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Josh
Matt
Eric
I suspect the MN GOP is headed the way of the IL GOP. Soon crackpots like Bachmann will be all that's left.
March 30, 2009 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Methinks Bachmann will not escape 2010, she was vulnerable last year and this year Dems will be gunning early.
March 30, 2009 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wish I could as optimistic, but the nutters have really hunkered down in the 6th. If Tinklenberg couldn't shake her out of the tree after her general nuttery I'm not sure anyone could...especially if an Independence party candidate is thrown in to the mix.
I'd like to see nothing more than her gone from the congress, but I'm not sure if it's in the cards.
March 30, 2009 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just try to keep in mind that positive thought followed by positive action can result in positive outcomes. We own a more perfect future in our minds and hearts, it is up to us to make it tangible.
March 30, 2009 3:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm really upbeat today.
March 30, 2009 4:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, Prof, I needed that.
Hope abides, and eventually prevails.
It's that "eventually" part that is getting tedious.
March 30, 2009 6:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Congress just wouldn't be the same without Michelle Bachmann. Sure, other Republicans say some pretty loopy things, but Bachmann is in a class by herself.
March 30, 2009 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
She is the stuff of legend I'll give you that.
March 30, 2009 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll bet Palin and Beck are pissed off that Bachmann is out-nut-jobing them these days.
March 30, 2009 10:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tim Pawlenty could run for a third term - I wonder how hard he'll fight to keep Franken unseated. He'll be in a tough spot in that he has national ambitions, so he'll need to keep the party power players happy by playing good soldier, but doing so hopefully won't play well in Minnesota. So does he not run in 2010 and instead sets his sights on 2012 Presidency in which case he'll want to keep the party overlords happy, however if he wants to run for his third term, he might just move to seat Franken.
March 30, 2009 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, the situation is very interesting in its complications. If the MN and/or national GOOPers are seen filibustering Franken, the backlash against them in MN could be quite strong.
Pawlenty might be able to personally sidestep that backlash by not running in 2010, but his fellow MN GOOPers might suffer. That could undermine his own home-state GOP support, something that he would definitely find useful in a 2012 primary marathon.
March 30, 2009 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why is it all the legal beagle bull$hit comes out of Texa$$. Remember, it was a legal team out of Texa$$ that what running bull$hit to keep Palin from looking bad over TrooperGate. Now, they busy in Minnesota interfering with a State Senate election. Someone needs to start getting the Texa$$ bar to pull a few repuglican legal licenses.
March 30, 2009 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, let's not forget Florida 2000 and the DeLay 2003-2004 congressional seat gerrymandering to the Texas Repubs Legal Hall of Shame...
March 30, 2009 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
There was a lot of money from Texas that put up some late negative campaign ads for Pawlenty in the last gubernatorial election.
I see the connection. The Republicans in Minnesota want to turn the state into a clone of Texas. Texas Republicans are just trying to help them out.
I keep telling them, "If you want to live in a state that's just like Texas, please move to Texas." Sorry, Texas.
March 30, 2009 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thing is - Texas isn't even as red as it used to be. Unless the national GOP changes its tune on immigration, Hispanics will continue to turn to Democrats, despite their social conservatism. Many believe Texas could be purple by 2012. If Hispanic candidates gain strength, the TX GOP will be more akin to that in California.
The upcoming Senate race is one to watch. Perry isn't as popular as he'd like us to think. Many despise him. Hutchison is popular but the old GOP guard is notably leery of her social pragmatism.
March 30, 2009 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hot damn! Between the electrifying Norm Coleman and the amazingly articulate Michelle Bachman, the GOP is positively ROCKING OUT in Minnesota. What backlash, are you crazy? Who in Minnesota could possibly be bothered that the Senator they elected doesn't get to serve them? Why would everyone not want this to drag out for years? People don't expect their votes to mean something!
March 30, 2009 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Get Bachmann on record as much as possible. The more she talks, the better.
March 30, 2009 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I concur.
March 30, 2009 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Should the current decision go in Franken's favor, he should full court press to be seated. He should use this remark against Coleman's appeal, exposing him as a Republican tool.
There have been a handful of remarks from the GOP that indicated that their sole purpose in the Coleman fight is to keep Franken delayed as long as possible.
March 30, 2009 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I suspect many Minnesota Republicans would view the RNC efforts to make Minnesota a one senator state as the icing on the cake and a blessing if it hurt Bachmann's chances of re-election.
March 30, 2009 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't believe there hasn't been a backlash already.
I think Pawlenty has more to fear than Bachmann, given that he is (IMHO) the leading GOP contender for the '12 nomination.
March 30, 2009 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't have to worry about Erik Paulsen, the 3rd district DFL couldn't field a competent candidate if they tried.
March 30, 2009 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pawlenty is probably in trouble, but I will say that everywhere I turn, the state Democrats are facing a backlash, too.
On the GOP side, there is Pawlenty. He is an astute politician that seems to have a knack for going on talk shows and sounding like a good-guy who really wants to care about poor people, but who just doesn't have the money to care about the poor people. It's sound. I mean, if only we had money, we could offer health insurance. It's as if Pawlenty wasn't in the legislature when they changed the way we funded schools and cut marginal tax rates.
On the DFL side, there is the incompetent legislature that insists on raising taxes on things like real estate sales (a great thing to do in a down real estate market) and small business services (another great approach in a down market). No one in the legislature in innovative. Seriously. No one.
So, I would say that while the GOP may suffer a bit from Franken/Coleman debacle, the DFL isn't helping itself much in the way they're governing.
Bachmann isn't going anywhere until that district is changed. It's a conservative district. She's super conservative. But, her ridiculous antics hurt other Republicans.
March 30, 2009 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good points.
Don't forget that our state Democrats also considered a bill that would ban smoking in cars (ok, when children were present, but still). But you are right: they are a bunch of clowns.
I disagree though, I think Pawlenty would win in 2010 and I can assure you he is feeling out the nomination for 2012. 2012 will be a test for Republicans to see what they want to do with their party. But that's far into the future.
March 30, 2009 10:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bachmann lives in an extremely gerrymandered district. But 2010 is a census year, and I suppose they could just redistrict her out of the congress.
But she's so entertaining.
March 30, 2009 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
As much as I would relish Bachmann being handed her ass in 2010, I think it's better int he long run that she stay in congress and continue to remind people what wingnuts the Repubs really are.
March 30, 2009 6:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
True
March 30, 2009 6:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Minnesota may be losing one congressional seat in the 2010 redistricting. Bachmann's safe seat may be in danger because the Democrats control both houses of the legislature which will be doing the redistricting.
March 30, 2009 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I could see the eastern half of Bachmann's 6th Congressional District (the more conservative half) being divided between CD8 and CD4, both fairly strong blue districts, and the western half going to CD3 and CD7.
March 30, 2009 10:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric,
I don't see Coleman's fight, in itself, backfiring against Republicans in Minnesota in 2010.
For one thing, it's impossible to predict what can happen in a political year. In late 2005 Dayton chose not to run for a 2d term (didn't want to fundraise) and Republicans were licking their chops for that seat; a year later things were completely different and no incumbent Democrat lost.
For another thing, no one here cares about this Senate seat. Really. Coleman's career is done, and Franken inspired no one during the campaign. Neither of the two got more than 42%. Eventually people will ask Coleman to give up, but as of yet they're willing to let him litigate it out.
Most of all, the DFL in Minnesota is pitifully inept. It's a sorry parade, it really is. Paulson will probably hold Ramstad's seat, Walz will have to constantly fight to keep his seat, but barring retirements, I don't see any other seats that would be close (excepting that possible redistricting).
TK
March 30, 2009 10:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
And for some it's impossible to recall what just happened in a political year.
Except for that insignificant 84% or so of the voters that voted for either Coleman or Franken.
Yeah, the only thing worse than them is the other party, which lost all control of the state legislature and continues to lose more seats there every cycle. And the incumbent GOP U.S. Senator just got ousted. When you're ready to acknowledge just how pitiful your own party is, you can go on to critique the Dems. Until then, you Republicans just look like a 500 lb. man criticizing someone else's eating habits.
Based on anything besides your warmest wishes?
He's run twice and won twice. I'm trying to see the downside of that for the Dems but I just can't.
March 30, 2009 11:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Chimpale,
I'm not a Republican. I could go on and on about what a sorry joke Republicans are, but that ground has been covered. Democrats feel quite successful and entitled right now, and I write from the perspective that things can change on them in a big hurry. I wish they'd listen more to Obama than Pelosi or Reid. Obama has a lot to teach us. Pelosi or Reid have nothing to teach us. Remember 7-8 yrs ago when people talked how much respect Daschle had among Democrats? Where did that get us?
I should really write from an optimistic point of view that things are going to get better - and they have. Obama has stopped the torture and will close Guantanamo. Those are the most critical things he could have done. McCain wouldn't have done them.
Do you follow Minnesota politics, or live in Minnesota? It's a shame Tinklenberg had the personality of cardboard, otherwise he would've beaten Bachmann. But then my guess is Bachmann would have run again in 2010 and probably won it back. But who knows.
Were you as surprised as I when Walz upset Gutknecht? That's the reason I say the Dems will need to spend and work to keep that district, even though you are right the district really likes him. Or maybe it'll be redrawn to be a little safer for him.. But otherwise you don't convince me that you know much about even the national politics here.
March 31, 2009 12:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Comedians in Minnesota and across the nation are struggling to find work. Knocking Bachmann out in 2010 could have a devastating effect all up and down the comedian supply chain.
Bachmann is a critical unnatural resource Minnesota houses for the benefit of comedians across the nation. Yes, MB is bad for the environment, toxic to humans, radioactive, and cancer-causing, but it gets stronger, more potent as it ages.
Remember, the half-life of crazy is an imaginary number.
March 30, 2009 11:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
"For another thing, no one here cares about this Senate seat. Really."
and:
"Except for that insignificant 84% or so of the voters that voted for either Coleman or Franken."
I'm from Minnesota and this is kinda true. The people fired up about this most are the blogging junkies like myself (and who usually also can't stand Coleman) and the right-wing fringe. I can't get anyone I know who isn't a blog-zealot to care that much, even those people I know that have great interest in law and politics, hate Coleman, voted for Franken, loved following bush v. gore, OJ trial, etc. I couldn't even get a lot of people to ever watch theuptake.com, which was often riveting.
Most people just wanted Norm to go away, and knew he would eventually, like an abrasive, bad dream. They liked Franken, but weren't entranced like they were with Wellstone and Obama. And already had a great asset in Amy Klobuchar. Plus all the other much bigger issues today. The interest was lukewarm starting in the voting booth (for both Norm and Al) and stayed there. People perk up a bit at the mention of 59, but that's about the extent of it for most. Go Twins!
March 31, 2009 6:42 PM | Reply | Permalink