Following up on Elana's post about the Waxman-Markey legislation, I just got off a conference call with Ed Markey himself and Speaker Nancy Pelosi about the climate change process. The goal, Pelosi said, was to have the bill passed by July--but she conceded that the goal, and the separate task of bringing Republicans aboard, will be a challenge.

The plan the Democrats put forward is pretty ambitious, at least by the standards of the U.S. Congress, but that means much less coming from the House than it would from the Senate, which is the real choke point for all of this stuff. One way around that roadblock is, famously, the reconciliation process. But the authors of this legislation--no wilting violets, they--signed on to a letter to President Obama saying, "using the budget reconciliation process, which curtails Senate filibuster rights, could arouse regional distrust and make reaching agreement harder."

The letter can be viewed in full here, but the takeaway is that reconciliation isn't a likely route for this bill. But congressional Democrats have another point of leverage--specifically, they can pressure carbon regulation opponents to sign on to the bill (however reluctantly) to circumvent the White House, which, thanks to a 2007 court decision, has the power, through the EPA, to regulate carbon on its own.

I asked the Speaker and Rep. Markey about this, and they agreed--the Supreme Court's decision makes carbon regulation inevitable. "Members will want Congress to [act]," Markey said. But he added that he's not in contact with the EPA about setting any sort of deadline for congressional action before handing the issue over to regulators.

"On an issue of this magnitude...it's very important that other countries understand that this is the law of the land," Pelosi said.

Markey added that "trade exposed industries can not be protected by regulation," a sign, perhaps that legislators from manufacturing states will ultimately be convinced to help pass a bill whether they want to or not.

But, one reporter asked, will the vote on the House's climate change bill be as partisan as the stimulus was? It remains to be seen, of course, but based on her observation of GOP opposition to the budget process Pelosi didn't rule it out: "They were not values based, intellectually driven about our future."