Poll: Corzine Trailing Republican In This Year's New Jersey Gubernatorial Race
A new Fairleigh Dickinson poll in New Jersey finds that Gov. Jon Corzine (D) is in serious danger of defeat at the hands of former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie in the election this coming November.
The numbers: Christie 41%, Corzine 32%. New Jersey is a heavily Democratic state, but Corzine has been hurt by the state's budget situation. And Christie retains popularity from his years as a U.S. Attorney, when he successfully prosecuted politicians from both parties. On the other hand, he has had his share of controversies involving the Bush Administration, and Corzine is sure to use those against him.
My own two cents, as a New Jerseyan: As a rule, we hate our politicians. But Christie can't bask in the glory of the polls right now, because it's also very common for incumbent Democrats to be way below 50%, and still win at the end of the day in this blue state.
New Jersey has shown a classic pattern of having high undecideds and the Republican ahead, only to see the undecided voters eventually come home and (reluctantly) vote for the Democrat. This is exactly what happened in the the 2006 Senate race, for example. But we'll see how this plays out, especially when the Dems start attacking Christie as a Bush-crony.
Josh
Elana
Matt
Eric
Hey, Eric! What exit???
March 4, 2009 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
There's a difference between being below 50% (i.e. Menendez trailing Kean by 3-4% in some polls, for instance) and for an incumbent to be stuck at a dismal 32%, trailing his GOP opponent by 9%.
March 4, 2009 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, let's see what impact the stimulus money will have on the state, and how much mileage Corzine can get out of it. Anyone know Christie's position on it?
March 4, 2009 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
if corzine can find a way to keep the tax rebates in place and the programs for seniors,(tax freeze,etc.)he will win.
if he cant he will lose.
its that simple.
March 4, 2009 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
eric is spot on...there was a lot of nonsense in '04 and '08 about nj potentially going republican in the presidential race. each time, the dem won by double digits.
corzine has some great progressive ideas that are also fiscally responsible, but he's bogged down by nj'ers inherent hate of politicians and also a budget mess that he inherited.
March 4, 2009 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Haha, what a joke. I grew up in New Jersey and every year the republicans claim that the state is trending conservative. As a matter of fact though, only one Republican has won the governorship in the past 20 years and that was Christine Todd Whitman who was very much a moderate that was first elected during the "republican revolution" during the mid-nineties. In this decade though, there has been on such luck and to suggest that these polls reflect much more than dissatisfaction with the economy that's in a recession is a stretch. Corzine definitely has to be mindful of his vulnerabilities and a potentially competetive race but is he in trouble? I'll wager not and in the meantime wait for the polling that comes out in the late summer.
March 4, 2009 3:23 PM | Reply | Permalink