Poll: GOP Senator Burr Vulnerable In 2010
A new survey of North Carolina from Public Policy Polling (D) indicates that GOP Sen. Richard Burr could be in serious trouble in 2010, as he runs for re-election in a state that flipped from the Republicans to the Democrats last year.
Burr's approval rating here is only 35%, disapproval is 32%, and a third of likely voters are undecided -- not very good numbers for an incumbent, to say the least. Against a generic Democrat, Burr has an initial lead of 42%-38%, with the incumbent well below 50%. Against Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, it's a very similar 43%-35% margin for Burr.
Democrats and independents are also more likely than Republicans to be undecided, suggesting that Burr already has much of his base locked down.
From the pollster's analysis: "A large segment of the electorate knows nothing about him and among those who do he's basically running 50/50. That makes him very vulnerable to a strong Democratic challenge next year."
Josh
Elana
Matt
Eric
I can't believe they polled against Elaine Marshall. Nobody even knows who she is. If they polled against Roy Cooper, Burr would get spanked. No problem. He's going to get spanked next year anyway!
March 19, 2009 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Who's Roy Cooper? Is he the Dem's most viable candidate?
March 19, 2009 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's the very popular, very handsome Attorney General.
I'm sticking my neck out to say he'll be the nominee and the next senator from NC!
March 19, 2009 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm no political professional, so I don't know. Something that stuck out in a Novak piece to me several years ago (hold your abuse as to me reading Novak, please), was an assertion that an incumbent Senator polling only around 50% was therefore in "a deep hole".
Josh wrote something very interesting and well-expressed by him during the Fall campaign: The point was, if you ask somebody about the incumbent and they're undecided, that's not neutral; it's negative. They are unhappy, and they haven't *yet* got their arms around the idea of voting against the person, but that's where it's headed. (That's how I understood what Josh was saying, and correct me anybody if you have a different take.)
Conclusion: If you credit Novak's thinking and Josh's in terms of general principles, this guy is in a deep fricking hole indeed.
March 19, 2009 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yea, I'd say things must be getting a little chilly for Burr!
March 19, 2009 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
"A large segment of the electorate knows nothing about him.."
That needs to change. It is likely he stays in the bushes because exposure would make him less, not more popular.
March 19, 2009 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
He's polling way worse than Liddy Dole did this far out. His basic problem is that he still equates what "North Carolinians" think with what people in his old congressional district (mine, as it happens) think.
The Fifth District replaced him with Virginia Foxx, one of the vilest, most hateful, most completely wrong-headed about absolutely everything vitriol-spitting Republicans in Congress. She is one of the worst abusers of the franking privilege. She was, and continues to be, a vociferous opponent of Katrina recovery funding.
The Fifth handily re-elected her in '08 by double digits against an excellent, but massively underfunded, opponent.
Burr, who often gives indications of being a sane, sober guy, insists on talking like a guy who's running only in the Fifth District. He fails to see the impact of the going on 600,000 people who've moved here, mostly Democrat yankees, since his last run. These are the people who (barely) took the state for Obama.
Yeah, he's toast.
And the only thing I know about Elaine Marshall is that, like almost every other state Secretary of State, she's held the office since forever and she has her picture plastered prominantely on the SOS office's website.
March 19, 2009 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmm. Burr leads 42-38 against a generic Dem but does better (43-35) against Elaine Marshall.
It kinda says Marshall is not the candidates Dems should run against him.
March 19, 2009 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Boy are you ever right about Foxx - I heard her going off on the AmeriCorps bill a couple of days ago. I doubt ol' Jesse Helms could have done any worse. Whatta putz.
March 19, 2009 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps you missed the GOP runoff in her first House race. It was her vs. Vernon Robinson. The whole raced turned into a contest to see whose rabid rants were the foamiest.
March 19, 2009 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
WE COMING FOR THAT SEAT BURR!
Time to get TWO democrats in NC for once.
March 19, 2009 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Burr ought to be vulnerable, but he's certainly not as big a pushover as the never-present Mrs. Dole. Burr can be beat IF the NC Dems, a heretofore defeatist clan, muster enough self-confidence to run a decent candidate against him. Kay Hagan tried her best to blow it against Dole, remaining for all intents invisible until Dole gave her some free publicity on the Godless thing. There are much stronger Dems in NC. Winston-Salem Mayor Allen Joines is one of them, but he couldn't even be persuaded to run for Congress last year. Hope for the best.
March 19, 2009 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone but Mike Easley.
March 19, 2009 6:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who is this person you speak of, Mike Easley?
March 19, 2009 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
What do you mean "for once"? Until the 1970s, it was the long-standing norm for NC to have two democratic senators. Surely you mean "Time to get TWO democrats in NC again."
March 19, 2009 4:00 PM | Reply | Permalink