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Poll: Obama Leads Palin By 20 Points
The numbers: Obama 55%, Palin 35%. This margin is nearly identical to Obama's approval of 55% and disapproval of 37%. Palin's own personal favorables and unfavorables stand at 39%-50%.
The pollster's analysis has the obvious caveat that we can't know what might happen in the next few years, but these numbers would point to Obama winning over 400 electoral votes.
On the other hand, just think of the stability of our two-party political system, that somebody running against Sarah Palin would only lead by 20 points.
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Josh
Elana
Matt
Eric
I cannot believe that people still support Sarah Palin.
March 18, 2009 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
She'll never get the nomination anyway. This is a waste of time. Basically, the r's are for her, which is only 35% of the country, highly concentrated in the old confederacy and morman states incidentally.
March 18, 2009 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
yeah, but how much of this group does she need to get the nomination?
All she needs is 20% (a little over half of 35%) to drink the kool-aid. Even less, given that R primaries are winner-take-all. McCain didn't even pull half in the primaries until everyone else dropped out.
March 18, 2009 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
True about winner take all. She will get a landslide in the south and get hammered elsewhere. Throw the huckster in the mix and she might not even take the south. There are only so many old white guys who fawn over her. I wager she doesn't get the nod. It will be an unknown that we don't anticipate at this point, if the republican party still exists in 2012.
March 18, 2009 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's also questionable whether the old white guys will still be fawning over her by 2012. Given how critical her ability to p.t. the guys at National Review has been to her career, her window would seem to be closing.
March 18, 2009 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just a reminder, the Salt Lake Tribune endorsed Obama in the last election, primarily because McCain used poor judgment when he selected Palin as his running mate. I know, I know, they were hoping McCain would have selected Mittens.
March 18, 2009 1:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Republicans are nuts about this nincompoop; did you read they just made her their keynote speaker?!
You betcha!
March 18, 2009 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well look at the republican women in the party and you will know why - the men aren't too hot either. Palin used her sex appeal and it worked on those old farts. Thank goodness most men with any brains saw her for what she was - a skirt with nothing else
March 18, 2009 6:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey! GOOD COMMENT! Thanks for laying out the honest truth! The other thing is that, while "most" men didn't fall for it as you say, she is still doing it and it is still working. And the other-other thing is that that righteous buzzard McCain cynically reduced the election to this level -- thank heaven the angry old vilifier wasn't rewarded for his tawdry gesture!
March 19, 2009 1:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Is she going to be a keynote speaker at that convention of republicans? If not this will be the second time she has blown them off. Not really smart if she wants to run again. I agree with Michael A. It is a long time before 2012. Maybe they will throw her up because they know it is a lost cause. But if Palin is all the republicans have to offer, jeeze.
March 18, 2009 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
She isn't even better than Cheney. http://www.governmentalityblog.com/my_weblog/2009/03/dick-cheneys-success-story.html
March 18, 2009 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Also on a side note, the picture of her for this entry is PERFECT. Props to you Kleefeld.
March 18, 2009 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's the same picture TPM has been using for most of their stories involving Palin. To be honest, it's starting to creep me out. I don't need to see Palin's tongue that often in my life.
March 18, 2009 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hereby vote that all Palin stories on TPM continue to use the "tongue" photo!
March 18, 2009 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I also like the wacky picture in the bar at the top of the page. She looks like the total loon that she is. You betcha!
March 18, 2009 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's the teeth biting down on the tongue that creep me out. Gotta be a masochistic to find that appealing.
March 18, 2009 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have heard the maxim that when you are approaching 40% negative ratings, you can't effectively run. Here's Klondike Barbie with 50%! Of course, Hillary was up above 50% when making some of her crassest comments in May-June 2008.
March 18, 2009 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
That means I'm winning, right? Yay!
March 18, 2009 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ronald Reagan - 58.8%
Walter Mondale - 40.6%
March 18, 2009 11:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Who?
March 18, 2009 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Speaking of the b-movie actor and mondale. Do you recall what caused mondale to implode so bad? I don't remember. I do remember that the b-movie actor sucked. I don't remember how he was able to pull it off though.
March 18, 2009 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
It was never really a contest. By 84 Raygunz had control of the establishment, and Mondale had nothing to draw all those "raygunz democrats" back. He won his home state at that was it.
March 18, 2009 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
It was "morning in America".
March 18, 2009 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, but it was all bullsh*t. Mondale really screwed up in my opinion. I'm starting to recall one problem he had was his honesty about taxation. I think that might have been part of the undoing of his candidacy. Also, ferraro was the rambo of 84 if I recall correctly.
March 18, 2009 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mondale never had a prayer, no matter what he did.
March 18, 2009 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks to Hal Riney...
March 18, 2009 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sure, his name was Lee Atwater.
Remember "welfare queen"?
"Are you better off than you were four years ago?"
Dirty tricks was really really getting going.
March 18, 2009 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Forgot about that as well. Minds going at my age. In todays world the welfare queens are the wives of the corporate elites and the mrs. madoffs of the world. The difference is that the alleged "welfare queens" of the b-movie actor's day did not exist and these "welfare queens" do. My how times have changed.
March 18, 2009 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
We're with ya, Governor! You betcha!
March 18, 2009 11:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Run, Sarah, Run!
March 18, 2009 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
A poll like this is a waste of time and a disservice to the public. It is meaningless, and it wraps us up in a bunch of political nonsense about nothing. Talk about Alice in Wonderland!!
March 18, 2009 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think you're overstating its value.
March 18, 2009 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Au contraire. It is never a waste to examine the possibility, however slight, of a moderated presidential debate between Barack Obama and Sarah Palin. Such an event could possibly be the most entertaining event in history. I pray for it every single day.
March 18, 2009 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Depressing.
March 18, 2009 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
My first thought reading this, only twenty??
March 18, 2009 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
second that
March 18, 2009 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
meant as a reply to xantar about seeing Tina I mean Sarah's tongue...
March 18, 2009 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
My prediction: the Repubs will be so fractured in 2012 that no candidate will win a majority of delegates. Mitt Romney will win the nomination at a brokered convention; the religious right will split off and run either Palin or Huckabee as a third-party candidate, and, if the economy has stabilized somewhat, Obama will win 500 electoral votes and 60% of the popular vote. The Republican party will then either face reality, and dissolve its coalition with the religious nuts, or else go the way of the Whigs, being replaced in the two-party system by an American Conservative party, or something similar.
March 18, 2009 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
APPARENTLY REPUBLICANS DIDN'T LEARN THEIR LESSON ON SARAH PALIN LAST YEAR
FROM THE ARTICLE: "She's Baaacccckkkkk"
March 18, 2009 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought by now this joke of a candidate would just go away, realizing just how much she embarrassed herself and her family with her meanspiritedness, her winking and folksy bull&&&&.
Please, please, please do not give her any more free publicity. Just let you fanfare die out.
March 18, 2009 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes it's amazing but true that people still love her. On the Online Commentary of the right-wing hack newspaper in my Midwestern city, people write in to say she's "a breath of fresh air," "tells it like it is," and "shares my moral values" etc. It's very disturbing. But there's no way she'd get the nomination--she just doesn't have a broad enough base of support. Plus she's nuts.
March 18, 2009 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
For a party that's in such turmoil, desperate for a new face and new ideas, I'm not so sure they wouldn't give Sarah the nomination. Who else is there? Romney? Gingrich? Those are all older names from the past. The GOP is really 3 parties in one and badly in need of an identity. So of course old party stalwarts long for Sarah. She represents the dying mentality that has shaped the GOP for decades, and they're just trying to hold on and survive.
CHECK OUT: "She's Baaacccckkkkk"
http://okwassup.blogspot.com
March 18, 2009 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Got some other fine pictures, if ya need them.
http://actualjesus.com/
March 18, 2009 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I find it inexplicable that so many guys think Sarah Palin is hot. Personally, I find her utterly disgusting: just seeing her picture makes my skin crawl. I guess there's just no accounting for taste.
But the point is that Palin never would have even been nominated for VP if she weren't perceived as sexually attractive by large numbers of men. 35% is going to be her top rating: it can only go down from there as her looks fade with age, because underneath the veneer is just a mean person with crazy beliefs.
March 18, 2009 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's a milf thing.
March 18, 2009 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that her attitude and behavior are bad but I really don't see how you can say she is not good looking. Maybe you hate her so much you can't see it, but I for one think she looks great! Just not anywhere near the White House, please.
March 18, 2009 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I guess I look at the whole package. I agree at first I thought that she was hot. Then she opened her mouth and started spouting sh*t and evidenced that she was a pea brain and was a complete psycho. Been there done that one. There went the hot factor. Now I rank her with, umm, brun hilda? Maybe that is being generous. I didn't want to insult anyone with a comparison.
March 18, 2009 6:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good boy MichaelA. Looking at the whole package is the only way. Shows you don't think with your d*c*k, like a lot of men. When I saw her the first time I thought she was attractive but not "hot"as MarkofOhio did, but two minutes after she started talking it was obvious there wasn't much upstairs. I read she went to 6 colleges and her combined SAT scores were 840.
March 18, 2009 7:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, what an arrogant, bigoted, insecure comment. Can I safely say, then, that a lot of women are thinking with their crotches when they observe how attractive Obama is? Or Edwards, pre-affair, was?
I've read comments by other women who say that they think Palin is beautiful. What body parts are they thinking with?
Please. Sarah Palin is an attractive woman, regardless of her politics. So is Laura Ingraham. So is Michelle Malkin. And so is Michelle Obama.
And the Palin SAT score that you cite is a hoax. I'd never vote for her for anything other than homecoming queen, but if you are going to flame people, at least get your facts straight.
March 18, 2009 11:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I don't find lousgirl84's comment arrogant, bigotted or insecure. It is a true comment. I am a male and I don't find rambo the least bit attractive. I think that she is a psycho with the brainpower of a two year old. Her "body parts" appear to me to be old and shriveled up like a brun hilda. She is ugly, just like malkin and ingrahm. They are all ugly as far as I am concerned. The bile and hatred that spews from their mouths is disgusting and splatters all over their "body parts."
I just don't understand how people could say that any of them are "attractive." They are basically trojan horses. One thing on the outside and a disgusting and twisted thing on the inside. As they say, beauty is in the eye of the beholder and none of those people are beautiful.
Now, Michelle is a beautiful person. Could you see any of those three interact with children and their families like Michelle? Nope. I saw the way rambo interacted with her children. It was disgusting. It was obvious that they were props and she really could care less. Another sign of who she was as a person. Disgusting.
March 19, 2009 9:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
I too am SHOCKED that it is only 20 points! My god people are STUPID! She is nothing but an ambitious chatty knownothing. She makes Bush look like a Rhodes Scholar.
It really scares me that there are so many truly stupid Americans, and yes they are concentrated in the South and the Mormon western mountain region. The circle of shame on this is the piss poor education systems in Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, etc... that let young minds rot in the swamps of religious fanaticism and the filthy rich hoarding the wealth and shortchanging the schools.
Keep it up conservatives and we will regress back to the dark ages. Then they can run things the way they really want to .... from a throne .... with a gun.
March 18, 2009 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, puhleez. Can't we leave tripe like this for People Magazine or the New York Post or something? Obama leads Palin in 2012? Jesus. What grade are we in again?
March 18, 2009 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Keep in mind folks, 20 points, in a National election is 30 million votes and 400-500 electoral votes. That's what we are aiming for in 2012 for sure.
March 18, 2009 6:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't believe someone would even take this poll less than 100 days into the new presidency. Who gives a crap about Sarah Palin, idiot extraordinaire.
March 18, 2009 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Only 20 points? I'm gonna slit my wrists...
March 18, 2009 7:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh you silly rascals, you went out of your way to find the most unflattering pictures of Governor Palin. Boy, that is sure going to make her go away! Also before you all break out the champaign and begin singing Ding Dong The Witch Is Dead, you might want to wait for a poll with a little more chops. This one only has a sample size of about 600 people (extremely skimpy for a national poll) and is heavy skewed towards democrats (44D, 33R, 23 other). But hey, you all can dream.
March 18, 2009 11:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
"just think of the stability of our two-party political system, that somebody running against Sarah Palin would only lead by 20 points."
Eric, you're a real kidder... still chuckling.
March 19, 2009 12:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bobby Jindal didn't make it past Disneyland, Sarah has at least past that test. So she is maybe overqualified at this point.
Throw in a few years of remedial schooling & she is primed to lead the free world.
Whoa!! Did I just say that? I forgot she is a completely propped up farce. Sorry.
March 19, 2009 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
That is the best the GOP can do??? Let's get Limbaugh up for candidacy too! This would be a poor choice for presidential candidate. People were questioning her competence with being VP, I don't see how people are going to be fine with her as President. Obama could do a pitiful just during this term, and still be the favorite next election. GOP please pick someone better for your party, so Obama has a little more motivation to pull us out of economic turmoil. With Sarah Palin as the main threat, Obama can just keep involving himself in sports stories like he enjoys doing so much, because whatever he does politically will still leave him a favorite.
March 19, 2009 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink