Poll: Specter Way Down In Republican Primary
A new Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania shows just how much trouble Arlen Specter could have in his 2010 Republican primary. Against his 2004 challenger Pat Toomey, who is expected to run again this time, he's stuck in the twenties.
The numbers: Toomey 41%, Specter 27%. Specter's loss of his Republican base also leaves him with weak numbers for a general election, with only 31% against a generic Democrat's 33%.
Specter remains somewhat popular with the overall electorate, though, with a 52% approval to 33% disapproval -- the kind of number that any incumbent could take into a general election. But the catch is that the approval comes from Democrats -- among Republicans, he's at only 36% approval and 52% disapproval.
Keep in mind that Pennsylvania uses a closed primary, and the number of registered Republicans has fallen since 2004 -- when Specter only held off Toomey by a 51%-49% margin -- leaving a very conservative base. And Specter's vote for the stimulus bill certainly can't have helped him.
It's numbers like these that led many observers to think Specter's best bet to stay in office could be to switch parties. But now that he's announced his opposition to the Employee Free Choice Act, he's probably cut off that option, as well.
Josh
Matt
Eric
Brian
Specter is going to LOSE in the primary.
Who is the Democratic Senate candidate? Perhaps Rendell should run after all.
March 25, 2009 9:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
It looks like he's going to retirement with guns blazing. I completely disagree with his votes, but in the abstract, it's an admirable way to go. And of course, the fact that this virtually guarantees another Dem Senator certainly doesn't hurt.
March 25, 2009 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
I disagree with it being a admirable way to go, he is going back to the right in the desperate attempt to hold onto his seat. The admirable way is to go out doing what is right for the good of the nation not what you might think is best to win a primary election in your state.
March 25, 2009 9:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, he's doing the thing he almost always does -- standing up for doing the right thing right up to the point where it actually matters, and then weaseling out.
March 25, 2009 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is why I can't understand the thought process that led him to flipflop on EFCA- it's not going to make wingnuts (who are most of what's left of PA's Republican electorate) vote for him over Toomey.
UNLESS... there was a deal made that Toomey would withdraw if Specter torpedoed EFCA. I would think that every day that passes with no such announcement from Toomey makes it less likely such a deal was in place.
So, don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out, Arlen. Best now to retire rather than be humiliated.
March 25, 2009 9:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, Toomey's gonna run. His ego is too large to wait any longer, and better yet, he believes he can win! Toomey is surrounded by Santorum-loving minions who feed him a steady stream of bullsh*t.
Buh bye, Arlen. PA will have two Dem senators by the end of next year.
PEACE
March 25, 2009 10:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Unless Grover Norquist nodded languidly when Specter went to kiss his ring and begged tearfully for Club for Growth not to run a primary opponent against him, I do not see how flop-flipping on EFCA in a union state helps him at all. If Toomey runs, Arlen is in trouble. If.
One wonders what deals Arlen made to get him to change his vote.
March 25, 2009 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, the problem there is Pat Toomey is the president of Club for Growth. I would be shocked if he did not run against Arlen. Yes, barring some dramatic unforeseen scandal from a Democratic opponent, Toomey would get spanked in the general election, but that doesn't seem to stop these guys. Only complete loyalty to their ideals matters.
March 25, 2009 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
By flip-flopping on the Employee Free Choice Act, Specter has ensured that he will lose both his reelection and his honor. This will not save him against Pat Toomey -- how many wingnuts are going to change their votes over this? But if Specter somehow muddles through the primary, it pretty much guarantees that he will lose the general.
March 25, 2009 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
I still wouldn't bet against Mr. Magic Bullet.
March 25, 2009 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Arlen has no base. He has made a career of being a finger in the wind and this year the voters will be providing him with the finger!
March 25, 2009 10:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
In the long run, this is great. Flip-flopping on EFCA will not help him much in the PA Rep primary, since Specter has long been hated among PA Republicans, primarily because he is pro-choice. Given that the pro-choice Republicans are now Democrats, Specter is screwed in the primary, and Toomey is screwed in the general. In the short run, however, Specter's decision to try to win the Republican primary means he will block all of Obama's legislative initiatives. It looks like people in Maine will have to push Snowe and Collins to be the cloture-inducing vote.
March 25, 2009 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
I await with great anticipation the political death of Arlene Specter!
March 25, 2009 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
As long as senators are more interested in being nice to each other than they are in getting legislation debated and then voted on, we need an absolute two thirds majority in the Senate (this allows for six democrats being swayed by special interests, or just being a bit too conservative, on each major issue).
To get to 67 democrats means Specter has to go, plus we have to win some other tougher races. It would have been much better if Obama had left Sibelius and Napolitano in place. Reid has to grow a brain and some cajones to avoid being knocked off. And it would be nice to have Schumer back in charge of recruiting Senate candidates.
All that said, I would prefer that the Senate simply stop clinging to its quaint tradition of letting cloture votes take the place of voting on the legislation itself. Bush got to pass his gift of $1.2 trillion to the wealthy with a bare majority in the Senate. We have a clear majority in favor of health care policy reform, tax policy reform and energy policy reform, following reasonable debate and honest attempts to compromise in order to broaden support even further. These reforms were also spelled out by Obama in the campaign and clearly endorsed by the American voters.
It may well take one more election cycle to get it done. Someone already suggested the campaign slogan: "Sometimes it takes three flushes."
March 25, 2009 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Who are the Dem possibilities in Pennsylvania? Could any legitimately challenge a GOP backed Specter? Or is the only hope Specter loses the primary challenge?
I still believe Toomey will bow out when the GOP realizes that he can't win, but that Specter would.
March 25, 2009 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Snarlin Arlen should take a few two step lessons from the Queen - DiFi
March 25, 2009 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Representatives Allyson Schwartz and Patrick Murphy are the top possibilities. Representative Joe Sestak, who would have been the best candidate, has said that he will not run, but if Specter looks really weak, I wonder if he would change his mind.
March 25, 2009 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
El,
as I stated on another post, Murphy, my Congressman, and Schwartz don't have the name recognition to win, neither does Sestak. Maybe Sestak's career as a Navy Admiral who commanded a carrier battle group could carry him. We need a strong candidate from Western or Central Pa, but I don't see anyone in the House that fits that bill. Barring that, I see only Rendell.
Franco Harris, a Dem activist from Western Pa. could carry Pittsburgh. :-)
March 25, 2009 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
With all that's happened in the past couple of weeks, it appears Dems are approaching Sestak to run.
You are right - Sestak would be the best candidiate. He brings to the table all the demographics/tangibles that matter in a PA state-wide race.'
A 31-year military career (3-star Admiral; led a carrier battle group in combat operations in Afghanistan and Iraq; served as President Clinton's Director of Defense Policy; after 9/11, headed up the Navy's anti-terroism unit) that plays well in the conservative western and central parts of PA (over 12% of PA residents are vets); Sestak has high-approval ratings and name recognition in southeastern PA where 40% of the PA vote resides (and where Sestak's District is located) and where the 4 Philly suburban counties have become bluer in the past 4 years (Sestak actually eats into Specter's strength in SE PA and overall in PA, the Dems now enjoy over a 1.2 million voter registration over the Republicans); Sestak' comes from one of those " traditional big PA Catholic families" (he has 7 siblings) which plays well in PA, a heavily-Catholic state (over 30% of its residents); Sestak is well-liked and strongly supported by Labor, who play a crucial role in PA elections, and would go to the wall for him (now that Specter has come-out against card-check bill); and, Sestak is a prolific fundraiser (currently sitting on a war chest of $3 million) and has a growing national reputation ( Sunday ago was on CNN's "State of the Union" giving the Dem's response to Cheney's interview, and previously appeared on "Meet the Press" and "This Week").
If Sestak is the Dems' candidate, you have to believe that the Dems have a strong shot to finally defeat Specter if Specter survives the PA Republican primary, and an excellent chance to regain the seat if Toomey is the Republican candidate.
March 25, 2009 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Spector = sucker
He thnks the GOP won't stab him in the back when he kowtows to the right. The jokes on him. They'll take his groveling and then reward it by running Toomey.
Point is, we need to defeat whatever GOP SOB they run for senate in 2010.
March 25, 2009 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
I live in Pa. and I'm sick of Specter. He's not principled, he just does whatever it takes to save his ass, every time. He caved on opposing any Bush judicial nominees so he could save his chairmanship of the judiciary committee, and he changes his positions every time an election comes around to save his senate seat.
He doesn't stand for anything or anyone but himself and his ego. I wish Rendell would run, I think he's still fairly popular here and he's the big named we need to get rid of the worthless Specter once and for all.
March 25, 2009 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Specter just sealed the seat for the Dems with his opposition of card check. Without some support from working class Dems he won't even win as an independent.
March 25, 2009 11:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
I say Allyson Schwartz on the dem side for sure, she'll destroy Toomey.
March 25, 2009 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Arlen Specter runs as an independent in 2010, wins the general election and then continues to caucus with the Republicans.
I don't buy the premise that union support plays a large role in Pennsylvania elections. I think the overwhelmingly dominant factor is familiarity and name recognition.
Average Pennsylvania voters won't follow politics closely enough to know Specter's stance on these issues and will tune out the election ads. They'll get into the election booth, see a name they recognize from past ballots and will push that button once again.
Granted, Specter lost my vote when he came out against EFCA, but I seriously doubt that my vote reflects the average Pennsylvania voter.
March 25, 2009 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you underestimate the perfect storm created by demographic shifts and the Republicans being branded with the Iraq war, the recession and the destruction of the economic market. The average voter may tune out the details, but they know Obama and the Dems are trying to help them out and solve the big problems, while the Rs are going to spend the next 18 months saying no to everything.
In good times, voters are more prone to be lazy and vote for the incumbent, but when times are bad they pay more attention. If progress is made between now and the next election, or even if people believe that the current administration is working hard to turn things around while being honest with the citizens and talking to them as adults, the people will turn out and vote D as a vote of confidence.
March 25, 2009 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also, the need for 60 votes in the Senate is not currently understood by the general electorate. I predict that will change over the next couple years, as every vote is going to keep highlighting that number, and Obama is going to start talking about it more over time, like he did with his tax cut for 95%.
By the time the election rolls around, more people in key states, such as PA, will understand how important their one senator is to the mix.
March 25, 2009 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope you are right on both points, but you have more faith in the attentiveness of Pennsylvania voters than I do.
March 25, 2009 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink