Report: Toomey To Challenge Specter Again In 2010 Republican Primary
Senator Arlen Specter (R-PA) could be in very serious trouble. Former Rep. Pat Toomey, who challenged Specter from the right in the Republican primary back in 2004, then went on to head the Club For Growth, is reportedly running again in 2010.
In this case, bad news for Specter could also be good news for Democrats -- if the ultra-conservative Toomey wins the primary, the Democratic nominee will have a very good shot at winning the seat, as opposed to Specter starting out as the favorite in any general election.
Toomey very nearly beat Specter in the 2004 primary, making it a 51%-49% race even though Specter had the full weight of the Bush White House behind him. This time could be different: There is no Republican White House; the GOP voter base is smaller and even more conservative; and most importantly, Specter has just voted for the stimulus package -- you know, that thing the right-wing activists denounce as a socialist takeover of America.
Indeed, a recent Susquehanna poll showed just how problematic things are for Specter: Among registered Republicans, 66% want someone else, and only 26% say he deserves another term.
Josh
Matt
Eric
Brian
That poll you cite is indeed a major source for concern for Specter; conservatives are REALLY angry at him. (The only head-to-head poll I know of has Toomey narrowly trailing in the primary and the general election, but it was taken before the stimulus vote.)
One problem for Democrats is that Toomey's candidacy will make it much less likely that Specter will provide a 60th vote on important legislation. For instance, EFCA: Specter voted for it in 2007, but can we really imagine him doing the same thing if he will have to face GOP primary voters within a few months? We'll have to see how he reacts to this, I guess, but I imagine Specter will really move to the right.
March 5, 2009 10:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
All Specter has to do is switch sides.
(1) He used to be a Democrat back in the 60s
(2) he agrees with Democrats on social issues
(3) PA is becoming increasingly blue
(4) he could then stay in the Senate as long as he wants since he's only endangered in the primary.
March 6, 2009 9:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
He should switch parties. heh
March 5, 2009 10:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, I can see that happening and you can hear the speech already. The party has changed dramatically from when I first ran for the senate and I don't recognize the party anymore and yada, yada, yada. He switches parties and no primary challenge and he wins no problem. He doesn't switch and he has two tough battles. I bet he flips. It makes sense.
March 5, 2009 10:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Imagine the howls from the right as they see their ability to filibuster in the Senate vanishing into thin air.
But I very much doubt he will jump ship. He's almost 80, and I suspect he'll opt for retirement instead once it's obvious to him that he will lose.
March 5, 2009 11:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think both you and Michael have it wrong.
Specter won't retire. If he wanted to retire, he'd have done so when his cancer was reported.
Instead, he dragged himself through treatment, and has spent the last year being as visible as possible, especially during the Holder hearings.
Specter won't switch parties either. What he would likely do, if he loses the GOP primary, is swap the "R" for an "I".
March 6, 2009 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don’t think Toomey will run, this is all about controlling Specter’s vote right now. Toomey knows he could primary out Specter, but then would likely get beat by the Democrat who staked the middle ground and would appeal to the independents.
Pennsylvania also has a closed primary, meaning only registered Republicans can vote, and will less folks self-identifying as Republicans, and moderates/centrists more likely to have changed their party affiliation and no longer registered as Republicans and thus cannot vote in the Primary.
I think its about threatening Specter to vote with the Republicans, especially on the upcoming card check battle, which should be very close.
There was a link provided in the thread below that is worth reading on this topic - http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/03/05/report-toomey-in/
March 5, 2009 11:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope you're right, but I wonder if they'll show such pragmatism. I have little love for Specter, but base politics are disappointing in either party becasue it just lowers the political discourse.
A Toomey primary win would be a textbook example of hardliner strategic blundering. One of the reasons why there's such partisan rancor: primary voters don't reward strategic thinking, GE viability, or moderation.
March 6, 2009 2:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think you're underestimating the irrationality of the GOP base. The worse their fortunes, the greater their urge to purge. As the rising sea shrinks their island, they have no choice but to resort to cannibalism and chiefs Limbaugh, Malkin, Coulter, and Hannity can only stay in power by creating justifications for the next meal.
March 6, 2009 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
That is, I think Mr. Mitty is underestimating, not you.
March 6, 2009 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
The fact the Toomey won't win the general wouldn't preclude him from running. There are other reasons to run.
March 6, 2009 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
GOP successfully delays Spending Bill, which will be cause for big celebration no doubt, and keep the focus on the bloated bill that has nothing to do with Obama in the first place. Reid announces they are one vote short of 60 and can't get cloture. Worth noting that NJ Sen. Menendez is still voted against it out of protest for the Cuba embargo issue...
March 5, 2009 11:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
He could pull a Lieberman and run as an "independent."
March 6, 2009 12:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe an 80-year old who has been in the Senate for 30 years should just retire.
Maybe if we had a few more Senators in their prime instead of countless committee chairs in their dotage we might be better off.
March 6, 2009 12:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Seconded, thirded, fourthed and fifthed! What kind of out-of-control ego do you have to have to try to hang around for another 6 years (as if he'll live that long!) when you're already 80 with a history of serious health problems?
March 6, 2009 8:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Robert Byrd was 89 last time he got elected.
Not that I disagree with the idea, but the current 3 leaders in the Senate on longevity are Byrd, Kennedy, and Inouye. None are spring chickens.
March 6, 2009 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Toss Lautenberg in there too...I think he might be a few months younger than Inouye.
March 6, 2009 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Specter, in his position on the Judiciary Committee was the single greatest 'representative' who was responsible for allowing 'lil Bush and big Dick to get away with the WH's manipulation of the judiciary, right?
March 6, 2009 12:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, Specter should switch parties so WE can kick his ass out in the primary instead of the Republicans!
March 6, 2009 12:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
If I were Specter I would play hardball and say if Toomey runs in the primary than I will change my status to Independent or Democrat and caucus with the Democrats giving them 60. I would work a deal with Senator Menendez who is head of the DSCC to push for no primary in Pennsylvania if I become a Democrat.
March 6, 2009 4:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, the outlines of this I totally agree with. I think. I reckon timing is a big issue.
You know, let's say you've got the basis of a deal laid out here. So Specter can approach them, or they also can approach him -- it'd be interesting if Menendez or a senior colleague were to make the first contact. (Or has someone already taken that initiative?)
Should he even wait? Could it be fun to be in the majority? He can provoke/engineer some intolerable action by Steele/Limbaugh/et al, and find himself "forced" to make a move immediately. (Steele has probably already provided the needed affront, in fact.) The lame speech about how his party had moved away from him would be tedious as ever, but also have the advantage of being completely true.
March 6, 2009 6:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Specter has any integrity he will leave the Republican party and caucus with the Democrats as an Independent. At age 80, he should retire and retain some dignity.
March 6, 2009 8:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Pat Toomey beats Arlen Specter in the primary, then the Republicans hand the seat to the Democrats in the General Election. This is just noise designed to intimidate Specter. I doubt it will work on someone who's been around as long as him.
March 6, 2009 8:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
It is very unlikely that Specter will switch parties.
There *is* a good chance of him becoming an independent, especially if he loses a primary to Toomey.
Contrary to some here, I don't think Toomey's challenge is a bluff. With PA's primary being closed, Specter has always had trouble against far-right opponents.
Like I've said on here frequently, Specter is in the most trouble in a primary. News of Toomey running again is probably the best thing for Democrats.
March 6, 2009 8:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
toomey's challenge is no bluff, believe me. the GOP is PA is getting angrier and angrier with specter.
To Taniel: "For instance, EFCA: Specter voted for it in 2007, but can we really imagine him doing the same thing if he will have to face GOP primary voters within a few months?"
Yes we can, because there are more union members in PA than there are republicans.
I can also see Specter pulling a Lieberman on the GOP. I think the key is who, if anyone, runs for the Democrats.
March 6, 2009 9:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obviously, the most formidable name among PA Dems is Ed Rendell. Unfortunately, I think Rendell might take a pass on this election. And other possibilities (Onorato, Wagner, Sestak, Nutter, etc.) are all looking to become governor as of right now or are happy where they're at.
Do you see anyone other than Rendell who could beat Specter statewide?
March 6, 2009 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have been wondering (or maybe just hoping) if there might be a Republican Senator who is just waiting for Franken to be seated before making the switch.
March 6, 2009 9:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
As a Democrat originally from PA, I would love to see Specter switch parties or even become an independent. I've always liked Specter, and I sense that most moderates in the state do as well. He represents the old model of Senator - someone who is not afraid to vote and negotiate on principles, not just to appease his party leaders, and who does what he feels is right for his state.
March 6, 2009 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think Toomey is bluffing. Just because he wouldn't win the general doesn't mean he wouldn't or shouldn't run. He would gain statewide notoriety and would be in better position to win in the future if democrats fall out of favor.
March 6, 2009 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Pat Toomey already has statewide notoriety.
The problem is, it's the same notoriety that Rick Santorum has.
The only way Toomey could ever win a statewide election is if everyone to the left of Specter just didn't vote on Election Day.
March 6, 2009 5:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
FUCK ARLEN "NAGIC BULLET" SPECTER
he made his bed, LET HIM SLEEP IN IT
if he wants to join the Democrats, STRIP HIM OF SENOIRITY, CHAIRMANSHIPS, AND ALL OTHER PERKS
if Magic Bullet wants to change sides, make him start at the BOTTOM
otherwise, he can LICK MY LEFT NUT before I would give him the stink off of my shit
March 6, 2009 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dems currently control 58 votes in the Senate (56 D's + 2 I's). As soon as Norm Coleman's case is put to bed, Al Franken will be seated, and that's 59 votes.
So, imagine you're the Senate Majority Leader. You know you can achieve total control with 60 votes. You get a call from a five-term Senator, saying he wants to switch parties.
Do you:
(a) tell him, "Well, we'd like to have you, but you'll lose all your seniority, and all of your plum committee assignments", or
(b) tell him, "Well, we'd love to have you. When can you stop in for a news conference to announce it?"
March 6, 2009 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Specter decided to switch parties in order to survive, I would say he's welcome to come to our side.
March 6, 2009 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink