Specter: I Won't Run As A Dem -- But Maybe As An Indy?
Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) told The Hill that he will not become a Democrat -- but he might become an independent.
"I'm staying a Republican because I think I have a more important role to play there," he said. "I think the United States very desperately needs a two-party system. ... And I'm afraid that we're becoming a one-party system, with Republicans becoming just a regional party."
On the other hand, Specter left the door open to the idea of running as an independent, though he would continue to caucus as a Republican.
"It's pretty hard to run without a party," he said. "It's always something that could be a possibility. But then I wouldn't be in the Republican caucus -- wouldn't have quite the standing as a Republican."
Another thing to consider is that Pennsylvania has a "sore-loser law" that prevents someone who lost a primary from pulling a Lieberman and running as an independent. So if Specter were to run as an independent, he would have to declare this well beforehand and leave the Republican nomination to a right-winger, setting up a three-way race with the Democrats involved, too.
On top of that, Joe Lieberman told The Hill: "I'd be delighted to have him in my caucus." Where do we even begin with this one?
Josh
Matt
Eric
Oh-oh, this is the one scenario that could actually get Toomey elected, unless the Dems endorsed Specter. Could be interesting. Some real political poker getting played here.
March 18, 2009 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
You know, I don't think specter would go indy, he couldn't win that way. He would not peal off any republicans and would only split the dem vote. Toomey would definitely win in that scenario. Toomey isn't like that fool the republicans ran in connecticut and specter has problems with republican voters, unlike traitor joe who republicans loved because of his support of the king.
March 18, 2009 9:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's why this surprised me- I didn't think he'd go this direction (and thus I didn't take this scenario seriously when I opposed trying to get him to switch parties). He may well be bluffing, but it certainly gives the Dems something to think about.
March 18, 2009 9:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
You know one of specter's problems, among many, is that historically he is all talk and no action. Bluster and huff and puff and then he doesn't do anything. This history is why I was very surprised by his stimulus support. Maybe this is another of those specter moments. Going indy would piss off republicans and dems and specter would wind up coming in third. I just don't think that he is that dumb.
March 18, 2009 9:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, but Toomey wouldn't have any seniority. Not as good as electing a Democrat, but not altogether a bad answer.
March 18, 2009 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well Arlen, we all appreciate your decision to firebomb the senate chamber with a missile with the name 'Pat Toomey' scrawled on the side. Thanks for coming out.
March 18, 2009 9:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Joe LieberSchmuck (I-CT) has a caucus? I thought he caucused with the Democrats.
March 18, 2009 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
It all depends on how many hard Republicans you believe vote in Pennsylvania. If the numder is less than 35% then Specter or the Dem challenger could have a shot.
This is Specter's pushback in the gamesmanship for his votes. GOP made their play with Toomey, Dems made their play with offering him a safe seat if he jumped to the Dems, now this is his play. Both the GOP and Dems would have to be wary of a three man race as it really could go any way.
Specter probably feels that as long as he polls strong, that whichever party is trailing in the polls would essentially bow out and support Specter rather than seeing the seat going to the leading party. For example, say Toomey is behind and it looks like the Dems will win the seat, he bows out and supports Specter (unofficially) because the mushy middle Specter is still better than a solid Dem for the seat. The vice versa would be true as well, if Toomey is polling strong late and looking like he could win, the Dems could switch to support Specter on election day to ensure Specter wins rather than risking the hard right Toomey would win.
Specter would be the compromise candidate.
March 18, 2009 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
1. All that is pretty much left in the republican party in pa is hard right. Many moderates left to join the dems. Something like more than 300,000 republicans switched registration as I recall. That's why the dems outnumber the republicans by such a large margin.
2. Toomey would never bow out. He is as hard right as they come. He would rather go down in flames than bow out.
Therefore, 35 to 40 could take it with the split of the dem vote.
March 18, 2009 10:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
However with a strong Dem candidate, the Dem candidate would get the vast majority of the Dem vote. I give Toomey 30% and the Dem candidate 30% with them battling Specter for the middle 40%.
Toomey could win with 35%, but the Dem candidate could get 36%, would the hard right risk a solid Dem in the seat over Specter?
March 18, 2009 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely, they want to get rid of all the alleged rinos. It's an issue of remaking the party and getting back to their conservative roots. If they didn't want to risk the seat, why did steele say what he said and why did toomey already announce?
March 18, 2009 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Never underestimate the circular firing squad. The Dems are pretty strong in PA. While Specter won't win the hard Republican vote, he will siphon off a significant fraction of the center-right vote, The real battle will be over the center-left. If the Dems overplay their hand and nominate a far-left candidate, Specter could gobble up enough of the center-left vote to swing the election to Toomey.
March 18, 2009 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
How about retire and let some new blood take a crack at it? It's been a good run.
March 18, 2009 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Lieberman is not, repeat not, an Independent. He is the sole member of the Connecticut for Lieberman Party, the label under which he ran for and won the open Senate seat in 2006 (open because the incumbent, one Joseph Lieberman, lost his re-election campaign in the Democratic primary.)
Lieberman is not and never has been an Independent of any kind, shape or form. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, on the other hand, IS an Independent because he ran for and won his Senate seat under that label.
Both Sanders and Lieberman currently caucus with Senate Democrats, but that does not make either one of them a Democrat, and only Sanders is an Independent.
Lieberman belongs to the Connecticut for Lieberman party of one.
Specter may or may not run and win election to the Pennsylvania Senate seat as an Independent, but unless he runs as the second member of the Connecticut for Lieberman Party, he will not be a member of Lieberman's "caucus."
And somebody tell Harry Reid that Lieberman is no longer a member of the Democratic caucus but has formed his own caucus of one.
Fucker.
March 18, 2009 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, Lieberman is NOT a member of Connecticut for Lieberman. He failed to file the papers to register himself as the leader and an actual member of the party in Connecticut. This led to a rather amusing scuffle in which a professor registered himself as the leader of Connecticut for Lieberman and promptly wrote up a party platform repudiating Lieberman. I believe the party is now in the hands of a Lieberman toady who managed to wrangle control of the party back, but as far as I know, Lieberman is still an "independent Democrat" (whatever that means) rather than a member of Connecticut for Lieberman.
You can read the Wikipedia page on Connecticut for Lieberman for more details.
March 18, 2009 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just because it can't possibly be said enough:
Fuck you, Joe!
March 18, 2009 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's heartening to see Specter harping on the cheery "regional party" meme.
As for where to begin with Traitor Joe, we always start off with three words,
Fuck you Joe.
March 18, 2009 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Independent? In the words of Meryl Streep, "You will lose".
March 18, 2009 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Have Specter talk to Jeffords and to Lincoln Chafee about being a "moderate Republican". Given the reality that Snowe and Collins are moderates in name only, Specter is the last of his species, the 'Ishi' of Republican moderates, if you will.
March 18, 2009 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sold that Toomey would win:
3,276,363 Obama (56.0%)
2,655,885 McCain (42.4%)
Dems have seen how this works from Lieberman. They're not likely to fall for it in *great* enough numbers. Basically he's have to pull 14% of the Dem+Indy Obama vote away from the Dem nominee. He'd have to do that while *not* having a track record of strongly supporting Obama, but rather milktoasting it.
Here's the other recent PA election:
58.7% Casey
41.3% Santorum
Sure, Santorum was dead in the water. But that consecutive election where the GOP is just pulling in the Base. Rendell pulled in 60/40 that same year.
Basically Specter would have to pull away 15-20 points of Dem/Indy vote because he's not likely to pull over much GOP vote.
Lieb is also a different beat. Lieb couldn't have run if the GOP didn't completely rollover to support Lieb:
49.7% Lieb
39.7% Ned
9.6% DOA GOP Candidate
Lieb didn't win on Dem votes. He won on the GOP wisely voting for Lieb.
Not going to happen here.
John
March 18, 2009 7:08 PM | Reply | Permalink