After Tedisco Stronghold Reports Totals, Murphy Still Ahead By 86 Votes
The latest state numbers from the NY-20 special election show Democratic candidate Scott Murphy leading Republican Jim Tedisco by 86 votes, a margin of 0.054%, as the progression of the count and the legal developments are making a Murphy win seem more and more likely.
The big news here is that this is after the initial absentee numbers have come in from the Tedisco stronghold of Saratoga County, with Tedisco only picking up a net 163 votes, out of 1,181 -- seemingly bad news for him, considering he needed something more substantial here. On the other hand, it turns out there are 740 challenged ballots in this county, and it's not clear right now what the actual makeup of these are, in terms of how many were challenged by each campaign.
Combined with other county absentee results, Murphy is still ahead by 86 votes -- and that's with more ballots to come in the pro-Murphy Columbia and Warren counties, where his lead is likely to extend further.
Meanwhile, Judge James V. Brands has issued an opinion that appears to have damaged Tedisco's hopes of winning the challenges.
As explained by PolitickerNY, the Tedisco camp had been seeking to obtain copies of the original applications for absentee ballots, rather than just the counties' records of the applications. But Brands ruled that a campaign has no legal entitlement to those papers, meaning Tedisco won't have the evidence to attempt to prove up his challenges against various Murphy voters. This basically renders the challenges null and void, as Brands essentially endorsed a presumption of correctness by the local officials who issued the ballots.
Brands set a date and time of this Monday at 10 a.m. for further proceedings to count the challenged absentee ballots. This thing might just be winding down.
Josh
Matt
Eric
Brian
In addition to Columbia and Warren, the absentee votes have not been counted from Washington county either. Murphy won by a good margin and there are 622 absentee votes. He should net 50 or 60 from there.
April 15, 2009 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Washington county absentees appear to have been counted (except for the challenged ballots):
http://www.elections.state.ny.us/NYSBOE/Elections/2009/Special/20thCDSpecialUnofficialResults041509b.pdf
April 15, 2009 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
So what next? I'm still unclear if we're in "recount" territory or still on the "first count". Is there a clear-ish rundown on the likely timeline(s) available?
(I guess as a New Yorker I should be more up on this stuff, but I can't remember a NY election this close -- most jurisdictions here are pretty solidly blue or red)
April 15, 2009 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think there is going to be a "recount" in the MN style.
The canvassing and re canvassing that has been going on should have taken care of all that.
The bottom line is, if you assume that most absentee ballot challenges come from the Tedisco camp (which is a pretty safe bet I'd say), then Murphy being up by 86 at the end (or near it) of counting everything, outside challenged absentee ballots, bodes very well for Murphy.
By the sounds of it, this may be wrapped up by early next week.
Unless Tedisco concedes first. Unlikely, but possible.
April 15, 2009 5:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Because of the way New York counts votes, there really isn't a "recount" in the offing.
Most of what would be considered the "recount" has already happened when the counties re-checked the voting machine totals (since New York uses old-fashioned voting machines, there are no ballots to count). The machines are kept locked up and could be examined again, but there is no reason to think the totals will change.
The paper ballots (absentees) are currently being counted by the counties - these ballots are being counted under careful observation of both campaigns and a team of Democratic and Republican election judges... the numbers will be accurate because of this scrutiny.
The final question will be the challenged ballots - the court will have to issue a final ruling on each of those, and the ones that are approved will be counted by the county election authorities - again, under careful observation of both parties.
Indications are that this will all be completed in the next few days, probably next week at the latest.
Once this happens, the state elections board will issue official totals -- the losing candidate (Tedisco) could then look for grounds to contest the count, but it is difficult to imagine any grounds he might have to prevent an election certificate from being issued.
Expect this to be wrapped up by the end of next week unless some very unusual twist happens with the challenged ballots.
April 15, 2009 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
THE DEMISRE OF THE RNC VOTER VAULT
terje (above) gives a correct and impartial delineation of NY election law to the best of my knowledge. I agree that the grounds for appeal are extremely narrow and probably unavailing for Tedisco as this judge has been following well settled, as I understand it, NY law and NY judicial precedent. I do not see any Federal issues and if they have not be raised by now they may be waived.
What has been previously commented upon by me and others with far more skill--see Nate Silver's analysis, for example, over at 538--is the consistent Murphy over performance in the absentee count thus far in every county. There is no reason to expect any reversal of this pattern as the challenged ballots are counted or rejected.
How did this happen? Murphy's campaign manager just did Gillibrand's re-election where they had a well organized absentee effort. Given the short time frame, their lists and computer data were about as up to date as possible and the basic "warm body" organization was readily available plus those from allies such as the unions, NARAL, etc. I have been told that the Republicans had very little in the way of an absentee organization last November in NY-20. You cannot just put together an effective organization in the time available for a special election if one must start from scratch--it cannot be done.
In the past the Republican National Committee spent millions creating and maintaining a national voter data base that was designed to also provide the data for absentee campaigns in special as well as general elections. It was able to step into all but instant action. They called it "Voter Vault," and they whupped us more than once through its use.
Democrats have been establishing data bases with the same purpose but have used newer technology and techniques and we are now in a better position as the results from November proved. The best system is probably in Iowa but investments have been made in state after state. (In NY Chuck Schumer was the main instigator of the state wide system.) These afforts are separate from what the Obama campaign did. Such a system will rapidly atrophy if it is not constantly renewed and updated.
The Republicans and their Voter Vault used to cream us on absentees. I have been hearing for a year or so that they have not been updating Voter Vault, and the November results seemed to indicate that was the case. The apparent absentee result in NY-20 demonstrates that the gossip I heard was true. RNC now has an obsolete data base and system which becomes more obsolete by the day. They may be in the position where they must almost start from scratch and it will take a minimum of $20 million over two or three years to build it back. Given the disfunction at the RNC there is no indication they are starting.
On the other hand, the Obama folks at the DNC are carefully renewing and enhancing their system. The media has no clue what is really going on at the DNC, even though it is not being done in secret, just as they were clueless as to how Obama was putting together his grassroots effort even though that was being done in plain view. [Remember the Washington Post story denigrating the Obama petition delivery?]
The story of the NY-20 special election may be the burial of Voter Vault.
April 15, 2009 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very interesting analysis. My guess is that Voter Vault, or its successor may be buried but will rise again when the weather shifts and it starts raining easy money again for the GOP. As long as they stay true to their core "philosophy" of lower taxes for the rich, I think the Repubs will find the money they need in due time.
April 16, 2009 9:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
To be fair (or more circumspect), the particular story wrt NY-20 may be more localized -- basically Murphy picking up from a well-funded incumbent's organization, versus Tedisco having to more-or-less start from scratch (albeit with lots o' money).
Either way, once again it's the organization, stupid!
April 16, 2009 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink