Is Obama Polarizing? Or Is It That The GOP Is Shrinking?
Much has been made of the new Pew Poll that seems to find President Obama as polarizing figure, with a 61-point differential between the 88% approval among Democrats and the 27% approval from Republicans.
Pew associate director Michael Dimock told Greg Sargent that the amazing part here is the 88% approval among Democrats, which would seem to guarantee a differential high enough to be termed "polarizing."
But here's another theory I have, that I called Dimock up to ask about: That Republican approval of Obama is so low because the number of Republicans is so low -- only 24% self-identification in this survey, in fact, compared to 33% in 2004. Here's how it would work: If the number of Republicans has shrunk, then the people who peeled away would have been the more moderate GOP respondents, the type of people willing to give Obama the benefit of the doubt in the form of an approval answer.
"That is reasonable, I think," Dimock told me. "There is no doubt that there have been fewer Americans describing themselves as Republicans, and the ones that are no longer describing themselves that way, compared to say four or five years ago, are the more moderate or middle-of-the-road ideologically, segment of the party. So those who still use the term Republican when we ask them are potentially more conservative and rock-ribbed Republicans than might have been three years ago."
Still, Dimock said, we are left with the question of why the larger number of Democrats, making up 34% of the sample, approve of Obama so highly -- if anything, this sort of calculation makes that an even harder question. "With the Democratic Party including an expanded base," said Dimock, "approval is still strong."
But there's my theory, anyway: Obama's incredibly low approval among Republicans is just as much caused by the Republican Party's own reduction down to a more conservative base, as it is about Obama's policies. But man, the Dem respondents really do like their new president.
(Nate Silver has roughly the same idea, too. Check out his take on it here.)
Josh
Matt
Eric
April 6, 2009 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
It appears that, temporarily at least, the pollsters are going to have to quantify their respondents a little further. Asking them how they rate themselves on a 1-10 scale of rabidity, or even liberal/moderate/conservative would give interesting insight as to how the population is trending politically.
April 6, 2009 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes Eric is just that good
April 6, 2009 7:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
*pew!* *pew!*
*duck*
*pew!*
April 6, 2009 8:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
They also need to into account of region. According to the Daily Kos poll,it's only in the South where Obama's favorability rating is in the negative territory. His ratings in the other parts of the country are in the high 70's or low 80's.
April 6, 2009 8:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ever hear of "trying too hard"? You might also notice that Clinton had only 26% from Repos while Obama has 27%.
We're dealing with an economic crisis and the Repo leadership is being obstructionistic. In my book that makes them the polarizing figures.
But the Pew poll itself is polarizing, as it doesn't offer "approve, neutral, disapprove".
Finally, if 24% are Repos and 73% of them fail to approve, then that's only 17.5% of the population who are Repos and fail to approve.
April 6, 2009 10:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure where the "news" is in this post. Since 1980, the GOP with its marriage to the religious nuts crowd has been marching toward oblivion. I just wish it had not taken until 2008 for the GOP to implode.
All the GOP has left is the ignorant (uneducated), fact-denying, red neck base (bigots and inbreds), and fantasy-based fundamentalists (think the earth is flat crowd). Even wealthy white folk understand the Democratic Party is good for America... contrary to the GOP ideology, the sun does rise in the east.
All of the above being said, I am not comforted. The GOP spawned Timothy McVey and it is obvious they are going for a bigger "bang" this time. The calls by GOP mouthpieces for treason is alarming (Michelle Bachman of MN, e.g.). They should be grateful that Obama believes in the constitution. If he didn't, they would have been arrested, and "erased" (as they deserve to be, for the good of the country), several weeks ago in the GWB administration style.
The GOPers are stockpiling guns for the purpose of overthrowing America. This should alarm every American. Dare I suggest that real Americans need to arm themselves against the GOP wackos? It is a possibility to be considered. Post Jan 20th, the reality that GWB was never in control is becoming increasingly obvious. The war before us is with the Dick Cheneys who reject our constitutional system. That he is receiving SS projection is perverted. Cheney and Co. is the biggest threat this country faces. This crowd is cornered like a rabid dogs. They are dangerous. They are a threat to the national security.
April 7, 2009 2:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
To the Republican dead enders Obama can do no right. If the man walked on water and healed the sick with a touch of his hand they would claim it was the devil's work. This would be true for any Democratic president (witness Clinton) But more so for Obama because of his race. Make no mistake, the Republican Party's hold on power has been built on the racist Southern Strategy and in the end it is all they have left. And it gauls them beyond description that it is falling appart.
April 7, 2009 5:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Co-sign, 100%.
April 7, 2009 9:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think Kleefeld is focusing on the Dem/Rep liking gap to throw a stone at Republicans and add some fuel to the faithful on here, but he's willfully ignoring the bigger picture.
Pew Poll said that Obama is the most polarizing president in the last 40 years; majority of Republicans gave Carter high liking initially and majority of Democrats gave Nixon high liking scores.
The problem is not with Obama and/or republicans, Pew Poll shows quite clearly, in my opinion, that the country as a whole has been growing increasingly polarized in the last several decades.
I think this Pew Poll is only important for those who think bi-partisanship is a good thing. Until the election, that included Obama and his books and his interviews.
He obviously abandonded it now (just like W did in his time) - because he wants to pass as much of his agenda in his first year as he can.
From politicking and wheeling/dealing point of view I understand it perfectly. But it's a complete mockery of his soul-searching pleas for bi-partisanship in "Audacity of Hope".
Well, one Hope and Change In Washington is down, that's for sure.
April 7, 2009 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Being widely liked is not being polarizing. Obama is widely liked. The GOP in DC are the one's polarizing.
Also, Obama aimed at post-partisanship, not bi-partisanship. The difference is the difference between polarization to a dichotomy, and synthesis to workability.
April 7, 2009 8:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Quoting Lalo35adm:
"Pew Poll said that Obama is the most polarizing president in the last 40 years; majority of Republicans gave Carter high liking initially and majority of Democrats gave Nixon high liking scores."
Well, the republican party has been talking to their base as if Obama is the antichrist, and they go out on shows and tell everyone, "see, hes polarizing! look!"
April 7, 2009 11:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Your comment makes it very obvious that you're missing the point.
It's not that Obama is so polarizing because of who/how he is. It's that he explicitly campaigned on bi-partisanship in a country that has been growing more polarized over the years.
The fact that he abandoned this facade in the same way as Bush did shows to me that he was never serious about it in the first place, just like Bush never was.
April 7, 2009 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps Obama really believed what he said and really did try when he first took office. The problem is - how do you work with a minority party that is filled with a bunch of hard right ideologues who either have no ideas or the same failed ideas? Seriously, should we expect Obama to decrease taxes on the wealthy and eliminate the capital gains tax for 2 years simply in the spirit of bi-partisanship...because that's really all the GOP is offering up. When the other side has very few ideas and the ideas they have are terrible ones, how can you be bi-partisan?
I think Obama may find some GOP allies in the Senate when it comes time to tackle financial regulations, healthcare reform, energy, etc. But the House is pretty much filled with a bunch of lunatics from super conservative districts. And the few there that may want to play nice with the president are intimated by the party leaders, see the experiences of Joe Cao from Louisiana. (and he's a guy who pretty much knows he's going to lose in 2010 no matter what he does)
As for polarization, I have to say that even though I expect very little from them, I'm kind of shocked at how quickly the GOP base has turned into a gang of loonies. These people are talking about armed insurrection and wacky conspiracy theories and Obama hasn't even been in office for three months yet. I know the far left was all over Bush for much of his presidency, but I don't remember people on the left losing their heads in the first 3-6 months of the first Bush administration. And we're talking about a guy who didn't even win the popular vote...a guy who had the election handed to him by the Supreme Court. If I recall, Bush Derangement Syndrome didn't really start until he and the GOP began to shamelessly use 9/11 and Iraq to their political advantage in 2002.
I think Eric is right - the only folks left who are willing to say, "I'm a Republican", are mostly a bunch of freaks. We have freaks on the left as well but they don't control the Democratic party. Can't say the same about the GOP.
April 7, 2009 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
"intimidated", not, "intimated"...
April 7, 2009 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
"...how do you work with a minority party ..."
I don't know how, but it's only April and it surely isn't as difficult as the economic crisis, health care reform, stimulus bill, the bailout and the takover of GM.
And let's be honest, he hasn't even tried.
April 7, 2009 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agree & when they realize, if any sane remain, they are going to blow 2010, it may change, but for some crazy reason they seem to feel being obstructionists is the way to go & are actually reveling in it. Looney is the right word.
April 7, 2009 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink