Kaine And Steele Both Predict Win In NY-20
Both national party chairmen have issued statements predicting victory for their guy in the NY-20 special election, and an affirmation of their party's policies.
Here's last night's statement from DNC chairman Tim Kaine:
"Scott Murphy embraced President Obama's message of change and his plans to fix our economy and create jobs, and as a result he stormed from more than 20 points down to winning a majority of votes cast tonight. Scott's performance tonight in an overwhelmingly Republican district, where Republicans enjoy a registration advantage over Democrats of more than 70,000, represents a repudiation of the failed politics and policies that Republicans continue to embrace. We are confident that when all the ballots are counted, Scott will expand his lead and become an ally to President Obama in Congress who will help the President create jobs and turn our economy around."
And here's this morning's statement from RNC chairman Michael Steele:
"With over 5,000 absentee and military ballots still left to count, this race is far from over. We are confident that the Republican advantage in these absentee and military ballots can put Jim Tedisco over the top, and the Republican Party will do everything in its power to make sure all lawful votes are counted.""We are proud of Jim Tedisco and his campaign. Together, and in partnership with the Tedisco campaign, the New York Republican Party, the Republican National Committee and National Republican Congressional Committee went toe-to-toe with the Obama Democratic machine that looked invincible in the Northeast just a few months ago and showed that our party can and will be competitive in areas of the country where our party hasn't won recently."
"President Obama, Senator Clinton, Eliot Spitzer and Chuck Schumer all won this district, and a Democrat won the last two congressional races. The fact we are in a dead heat race in NY-20 means we are making progress as a Party standing firm for fiscal responsibility."
It will take some legal wrangling and sorting through absentee ballots to actually settle the question of who won the race for this toss-up district. So for now, both sides are putting their best feet forward.
Josh
Matt
Eric
This is obviously all spin. Murphy leads by 65 votes and there are still AT LEAST 6,000 absentee ballots to be counted - with potentially much more to come. It's impossible to predict how those will fall, but we do have some hints now that the state election board has provided the party breakdown of absentee voters. It looks like absentee voters are slightly less Republican than the district-at-large.
April 1, 2009 9:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not again!!!!!!
April 1, 2009 9:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
So Steele is crowing because Tedisco, who outspent Murphy in a conservative district with more Republican registrations than Democratic, and who led in the polls throughout the race, *almost* won? There's spin, and then there's delusion.
April 1, 2009 9:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
You forgot the part about a Democrat winning the seat by 6 point less than six months ago...
April 1, 2009 9:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, Bush was that bad, he turned even red districts blue.
What's your point?
April 1, 2009 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're being disingenuous.
April 1, 2009 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
How? Gilldibrand won it by 6 points 53-47, Obama won it by 3 51-48, both less than 6 months ago. Obviously it hasn't become a new Democrat hot bead crushed under the great blue tsunami...
April 1, 2009 10:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Never mind that Sweeney was a dead man walking due to being surrounded by scandal.
April 1, 2009 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
And special election turn out always favors the demographic base of the district and Republicans had a 70,000 advantage there. Look at the voter turnout, I believe it was 58% of the turnout six months ago. Gillibrand was running as the incumbent, with Obama/McCain bringing out more voters. Now you have a career politician, well known in the district in Tedisco,. the RCN spending double over the Dem challenger, and Murphy new to politics.
Once Gillibrand was picked by Paterson, the Republicans were saying "at least we'll get another house seat" as if it was a forgone conclusion. Also early polling had Tedisco up 12 because of his advantages, Murphy chipped away to close the gap considerable, though I assume he'll lose by 2-3% once the rest of the ballots are counted. Murphy made his move late, whereas the absentee ballots wouldn't have shown this.
April 1, 2009 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
You should check your 2-1 money info...all the reports I saw were saying money was pretty much even for both candidates.
April 1, 2009 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
How bout you check this report:
For that reason Republicans bet heavily on the race, with Republican National Committee Michael Steele pumping money and resources into the district, and the National Republican Congressional Committee pouring in $818,000 on top of that. Their efforts were aided by conservative groups, led by the National Republican Trust PAC, which spent an additional $819,000.
National Democrats spent considerably less, led by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which spent $591,000. The party’s allies in the labor movement assisted Murphy’s get-out-the-vote effort.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0309/20748.html
April 1, 2009 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whatever happens, I feel pretty confident that Murphy will kick Jimmy Disco's sorry ass in 2010.
April 1, 2009 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink