McCain Hot On Gates; Webb, Not So Much
Defense Secretary Robert Gates proposed a major overhaul of the Pentagon budget and defense arsenals today--a move that will no doubt displease many, many members of Congress, whose districts benefit from some expensive Defense Department procurements. According to Robert Farley, if Gates gets his way we'll see:
1. No more F-22s.2. Replacement Air Force bomber delayed indefinitely.
3. Ballistic missile defense funding leans toward the Navy.
4. Aircraft carrier acquisition slowed, with the fleet eventually dropping to 10 carriers.
5. Next generation cruiser (CGX) delayed indefinitely.
6. VH-71 Presidential helicopter dead.
7. No more than three DDG-1000, and maybe only one.
8. Future Combat Systems funding slashed.
The savings from these programs would be funneled into such efforts as enlarging the military's special operations forces and increasing intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance support (Predator drones, turbo-prop aircraft, etc.) with $2 billion in additional funds.
The move has at least one powerful friend: Sen. John McCain, ranking member on the Senate Armed Services committee. "I strongly support Secretary Gates' decision to restructure a number of major defense programs," McCain said, "It has long been necessary to shift spending away from weapon systems plagued by scheduling and cost overruns to ones that strike the correct balance between the needs of our deployed forces and the requirements for meeting the emerging threats of tomorrow."
Committee Chair Carl Levin hasn't put out a statement of his own yet, but in what may be a harbinger of difficulties to come, Sen. Jim Webb wasn't so kind. I'll paste his whole, lengthy statement below, but for now here's a taste: "The secretary's announcement today is highly unorthodox," says Webb. "Secretary Gates has proposed funding increases, reductions, deferrals, and cancellations in numerous defense programs. In the absence of a more detailed description of the strategic underpinnings justifying his funding priorities--including an assessment of the level of risk posed to U.S. national security interests--it is difficult to evaluate them in isolation."
Webb represents Virginia, which benefits immensely from lucrative defense contracts, but he's also a considered politician and his position will carry some heft.
Gates recently said a Don't Ask Don't Tell repeal would have to wait because he and the president have "a lot on our plates right now."
"Secretary of Defense Gates today proposed a lengthy list of programmatic and manpower decisions as part of his intention to reshape the U.S. defense establishment. These recommendations should--and will--be evaluated in terms of their potential impact on our long-term strategic requirements."The secretary's announcement today is highly unorthodox. Such a major shift toward a 'different strategic direction' early in a new administration normally flows from such strategy-driven assessments as the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) or the formulation of a new U.S. national security strategy. Of particular note is his contemplation of maintaining long-term increases in Army and Marine Corps end strength, based on current operational requirements in Iraq and Afghanistan, in the absence of a comprehensive strategy.
"Similar concerns arise regarding our global basing posture, which I strongly believe should be examined based on need and cost-effectiveness, in the same manner that domestic facilities are considered in the Base Closure and Realignment (BRAC) process.
"Secretary Gates has proposed funding increases, reductions, deferrals, and cancellations in numerous defense programs. In the absence of a more detailed description of the strategic underpinnings justifying his funding priorities--including an assessment of the level of risk posed to U.S. national security interests--it is difficult to evaluate them in isolation.
"For example, the secretary has called for major adjustments to the U.S. Navy's force structure--including a reduction in the long term to the statutory requirement for the Navy to maintain a force of 11 operational aircraft carriers. Other proposed changes to the Navy's current shipbuilding plan for a 313-ship fleet could generate new instabilities.
"I have a very strong view--one developed over many years--that we must grow the Navy's force structure in order for us to meet our strategic and security interests around the world now and those we are likely to face in the future. This is especially relevant in the Pacific region, where China is pursuing a rapid, comprehensive modernization of its armed forces, including its Navy. Secretary Gates recently reported to Congress this modernization program entails military roles and missions that go well beyond China's immediate territorial interests.
"In other respects, I commend the secretary's call for necessary reforms in the way that the Department of Defense conducts its business, including an end to defense supplemental appropriations to fund the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. I have consistently maintained that funding for such requirements should be included in the base defense budget. I welcome a return to a more disciplined defense budget process.
"I also welcome his advocacy of a fundamental overhaul of defense procurement, acquisition, and contracting. I have warned for more than three years that the Department of Defense has relied too heavily on civilian contractors, especially for wartime support. The secretary's plan for increasing the size of the defense acquisition workforce and converting 11,000 contractors are needed steps in the right direction.
"We in Congress must consider the secretary's proposal carefully in our oversight role. We will do so in the months ahead after the defense budget is formally delivered to Congress."


















We'll see what the porkers on the Hill do but this was worth the appointment!!
April 6, 2009 6:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Webb is a strong proponent of a hefty naval force, so maybe he can offer cuts in other areas to pay for it to bolster his case.
Why would anyone care what John McCain thinks?
April 6, 2009 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Getting McCain on board for this will provide Obama and Gates with some useful "bipartisan" cover.
April 7, 2009 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only social program right wingers like is military welfare, billions for useless weapons that we'll never use.
April 6, 2009 6:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
If all they are doing is moving the money around, it's just another centrist aka right-wing shell game. Unless I see "the money saved from these programs will be funneled into healthcare and education" I might as well have voted for John McCain.
April 6, 2009 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
stop pretending you voted at all.
April 6, 2009 7:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
GUD POYNT!!
April 6, 2009 7:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ballistic missile defense funding leans toward the Navy.
What does this mean?
April 6, 2009 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
With the recent problems concerning the USAF and nukes, it's safer to give it to a more responsible branch.
April 6, 2009 6:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Navy's done a lot of noodling and fiddling with intercepting ballistic warheads at the reentry stage using more or less unmodified Standard air to air missles fired from Aegis cruisers. They took out a satallite that had gone dark and was deorbiting last year (year before last) obstensibly because they were scared it would crash on land and contaminate the area with hydrazine.
Who knows how well they're really doing, but they seem to be doing at least as well as the Air Force for a lot less money. If they can hit warheads at the reentry phase, there's no reason they couldn't do it during the boost phase from, say, the Medeterranean Sea or the Persian Gulf or the Sea of Japan. Certainly, the politics are a lot easier to manage than having to base big riot-provoking, Russian paranoia stoking "Hey, look, American hegemony! You gotta problem with dat?" radar arrays in eastern Europe.
April 6, 2009 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
You forgot to mention that a sea-based launch platform doesn't stir up any diplomatic brouhahas with the Russians as does a land-based system.
April 7, 2009 10:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
It means that whatever limited system we deploy will be mobile and not "bolted" to the ground in Alaska or Eastern Europe. As someone else points out here, they're probably talking about the AEGIS system, which is really a force protection solution not intended to address strategic threats. Even at that, it's not clear that this will work under real combat conditions. None of the Air Force proposals have panned out, unless they're keeping some impressive successes a secret. These systems are really profit/job protection, not defense, solutions. That's why Gates, with Obama's support, want to cut them. They don't add anything to the survivability of his troops or the country, but instead siphon off much needed resources from important programs that will (e.g. combat intelligence systems like the Predator).
April 6, 2009 8:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Missile defense is being developed primarily for use against North Korea. I'm ignorant of the mechanics of why we wouldn't be able to use ground stations in South Korea or Japan, but apparently the better deal is to set up a ring of these things in international waters, north and east of the Korean peninsula. Air defense radars detect the launch, and in theory, the alerted missile defense platforms can destroy the few missiles that North Korea can launch.
This has the additional salutary effect of being a missile defense regime that is less of a threat to the capabilities that Russia and China have, presumably because the launch would have gained too much altitude by the time it came within the platform's lateral range for our intercept to work, most of the time.
It needs to be said that at this stage, nobody is saying our technology affords reliable protection against any threat, but progress and appropriations march on.
April 6, 2009 10:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
From Korea or Japan, the missile is accelerating ... its hard to get a lock on a target in the initial stages of launch with a varying acceleration, azimuth and elevation rates. Once it reaches it max velocity and altitude, its rate of speed is constant and altitude is constant. At that point all vectors are moving slow enough to lock up azimuth, elevation and range. Once locked, a missile can be fired to intercept. By the way, it's easier to track something coming at you than away from you. Anything you fire off to intercept has to travel twice as fast to catch up.
April 7, 2009 10:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Webb's take is wrapped up in VA's substantial stake in the issue, but he also is a good voice on defense issues. This Gates pronouncement just smacks a teensy bit of Rumsfeld's "smaller, agile" military plans, not to mention the all-too-familiar, aloof and seemingly non-consultative approach to decision-making...
April 6, 2009 7:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Gates is re-distributing money down to the boots on the ground - where it's needed the most. Fancy fighting vehicles, aircraft and ships aren't what is needed in Afgan or Iraq. We've known about suicide bombers since the Marine barracks in Beirut 1983, yet the military has failed to develop a deterrent. IED's are nothing more than an extension if the suicide bomber - just as deadly without a human component to deliver the ordinance. Besides, I don't think the Al Quida and Taliban air forces and naval fleets are keeping our air and sea forces on high alert.
April 7, 2009 10:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
1. Re Webb's background. It's not just that he's Senator for VA. Webb was Sec'y of the Navy under Reagan and a vocal proponent of the 600 ship navy. Tends to have a pretty heavy bias toward naval in any global defense strategy.
He's right that Gates and Obama are going to have to drill down more in articulating the strategic adjustments reflected in Gates' budget. As I understand it, Gates is aiming to make his last big contribution, before he leaves the Obama Admin in a couple of years, the next Quadrennial Defense Review. The QDR is where a new national defense strategy is supposed to be linked with a new military strategy (force structure, weapons systems etc) and fleshed out in more detail.
The budget Gates just proposed is only the first shot across the bows of Congress, the Military-Industrial Complex, the Pentagon and conservatives. But it's a huge first shot. What I had expected (hoped) from Gates, given the signals he's been sending, but still it's great to see.
2. Re naval connection with BMD. Ballistic missile defense programs come in both land-based (very difficult if not impossible technically -- so far the testing has been a series of fiascos -- and very expensive) and sea-based varieties. The sea-based porgram has been both more promising and enormously faster and cheaper to deploy.
From a BMD overview last month at Council on Foreign Relations:
"Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense: Considered the most effective element of the agency's missile defense system, this sea-based component is designed to intercept short- and medium-range ballistic missiles after takeoff or just before impact." It's more a force-protection defense. It doesn't have to deal with all the problems of intercontinental MIRV'd warheads etc.
The CFR BMD article is at:
http://www.cfr.org/publication/18812/.
April 6, 2009 7:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, that'll teach me to reply before I get to the end of the comments. Much better than my BMD comment above.
April 6, 2009 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
$500 billion is over half of the entire world's military budget. I may be wrong, but it seem to me the majority of weapons on other nation's hands were developed by us. Perhaps it is past time to make these countries spend their OWN money if they want such extreme militaries. As for us, this much money has allowed us to begin WAY too many conflicts and wars, whereas less military might just force us to into more discussions before making our military industrial complex richer... IMHO
April 6, 2009 9:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
at the very least, military spending should scale with the economy--they are still slightly increasing the military budget for next year, which (especially since our GDP is decreasing) increases the percentage of GDP going towards the military. Ounce for ounce, wouldn't that extra money be better spent on things that have a bigger economic bang?
April 7, 2009 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am seriously excited by Gates' proposals. He sounds like just the guy that Obama needed. SOMETHING needs to shake up this tired, old, expensive and crony-filled process.
There will be a Battle Royal on the Hill though.
April 6, 2009 9:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
The open question seems to be, are you planning on fighting insurgents or China? See today's NY Times article on the arguments over what the 2006 Lebanon War meant.
Either way, I'd be happy to see a few hundred billion lopped off the DOD budget.
April 6, 2009 9:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
49 years to the date, Eisenhower warned America of the growing monster, "the military industrial complex." Everything he forewarned us has come to pass and it's evident now given the "complex's" insidious entrenchment in every part of American life and many local economies.
It's time to dismantle the monster in a thoughtful way and I'm not talking about saving all those jobs in every nook and cranny. It's about what type of weapons and support do we really need given today's realities. This monster is carry a lot of waste and fat and it needs to be trimmed in a major way.
I'm ready for the fight.
April 6, 2009 11:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, I am surprised by mccain's comments. Very surprising and a good sign. Webb's comments are no big deal. Why the headline? That makes no sense. He wants to look at the proposals. Big deal.
Bottom line, gates is the man and this is huge. Finally, some sanity. I am so happy that obama kept gates on board. This is a great development.
April 6, 2009 11:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain has always been really good about superfluous military projects. Unlike the rest of the GOP, he's fairly consistent when it comes to spending, the problem is that his consistency doesn't make him any more right when it comes to sound economic policy.
April 7, 2009 7:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Really? Well, I take back what I said about mccain re the military spending. I always thought that according to him that spending was aok and untouchable. Didn't he propose just freezing domestic spending and not touch military stuff? I thought that was where he stood.
April 7, 2009 8:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Might have something to do with Phoenix and Tucson being big military defense industry areas in Arizona.
April 7, 2009 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
True. But McCain normally (at least in his own mind) doesn't like to spend money for money's sake. A military reorganization can't be bad, since the world changed in 1989 when the Wall went down and our military's strategy didn't.
I'm still concerned, though, that we are increasing total military spending while everything else economic (except the stimulus of course) is shrinking.
April 7, 2009 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Our carriers are pretty important for much of our war logistics. That said, I also have no idea where Gates is going without a strategic plan underpinning the changes.
April 7, 2009 3:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Huh? Our navy is bigger than the next 13 COMBINED, 11 of which are allies. We can cut our carriers in 1/2 and still have plenty for their mission. They are expensive to operate and relics of the 50's and 60's. Why do you think no other nation builds "super carriers"? They are huge and expensive sitting ducks against a real enemy, not one hiding in caves. It's not rocket science.
Strategic plan? We're fighting irregular lightly armed fighters hiding in caves. How many carrier battle groups do you need for that? How many stealth fighters or b-2 bombers do you need, when they don't even have radar? Of course he has a strategic plan, you obviously did not pay attention.
April 7, 2009 8:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
The reason for so many water-born air carrier platforms is being able to get US air power into an area without having to negotiate secret/classified issues with other sovereign nations on using their air space on a moments notice. It's also harder to attack a carrier group holding station 100 or more miles away from the conflict zone. So carriers make sense if the US is bound and determined to pull out of all the oversea land-locked bases it once held during the cold-war, but still make their presence known.
April 7, 2009 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Another thing I forgot to mention is an air carrier group doesn't require a vast sum of money to build semi-permanent runways, taxiways, reinforced aircraft hangars, fencing, guards, guns, ammo, barracks and chow halls then leave it all behind once they leave an area. Big savings for the tax payer in the long run.
April 7, 2009 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks.
April 7, 2009 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Slightly OT: for anyone who has not yet seen it, the documentary "Why We Fight" is a good primer for understanding this kind of discussion. I'm not necessarily endorsing all its views, but it really lays out the origins of the massive military spending we're seeing now.
April 7, 2009 9:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
what bs this all is.
the budget should be cut to a max. of around 100 billion total.
close all 1000 bases and bring every last soldier home.
if poland neads a missle defense shield let them pay for it.
you get my point?
enough of this madness.
obama?? wheres the change?????????????
April 7, 2009 9:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
While I agree with you, politics is the art of the possible. This at least puts us in a better position for outright cuts later because it separates the porkers from the hawks. Better to have the discussion about cutting the real bacon projects without the risk of being labelled a dirty hippie.
April 7, 2009 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Poland didn't want the shield. It was a pot of gold the Bu$h administration presented to them to accept it. They were being taken advantage of by the Bu$h and the repuglicans.
April 7, 2009 10:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Regarding missile defenses, not one has ever worked except MAD.
Post-war analysis placed doubt that even one Patriot missile intercepted a SCUD in the first Gulf war.
Ronald Reagan's massive system has never overcome the software objections raised in the '80s. We have never been able to construct complex software that worked without extensive realistic testing. And even then we don't have full assurance.
The current, more limited missile-defense systems have failed every single fair test. A fair test would include (a) no pre-knowledge of target paths, (b) realistic launch points, and (c) minimal decoys deployed along with the real targets.
Lastly, there are no self-defense scenarios that prompt use of a system that destroys missiles in the air. What country is going to launch a missile at us? Modern intel would pinpoint the exact location of the launch and that country would suffer massive retaliation. No terrorist group (not nationally based) would have the resources to build launch sites. Israel, the only other reasonable target, has its own 200 nuclear bombs to defend itself.
It's been nearly seventy years since our country's real security has been threatened, and in that time we have come to dominate the world militarily. Events like 9/11, while awful for those involved, need to be put into perspective. For example, we lose an entire 9/11 set of people every two months due to lack of (sufficient) medical insurance.
April 7, 2009 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Has the Navy even been relevant to our latest adventures in Mesopotamia? I guess they're good at the shock and awe part but beyond that it seems like a waste of diesel.
April 7, 2009 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink