Murphy Ahead By 49 Votes (Right Now) 46 Votes
The latest score in NY-20 shows that Democrat Scott Murphy is currently ahead in this nail-biter of a result -- but if GOPer Jim Tedisco doesn't like it, he could just wait 15 minutes.
The official state results show that Murphy has taken an eight-vote lead as of 4:30 p.m. ET yesterday, as absentee ballots begin to be counted. However, there is some more recent data that shows Murphy's lead is actually somewhat larger at the moment.
Columbia County has provided their latest numbers to TPM, showing Murphy picking up another 15 net votes, on a 99-42 margin, compared to the 55-13 in the state's current tally of absentees from here. In addition, the Albany Times Union reports that Murphy has picked up 26 votes, an 88-62 margin, in Essex County.
So as of right now, Scott Murphy leads by 49 votes -- though there are still plenty of ballots left to count. (Late Update: Murphy's newest lead is 46 votes.)
The Tedisco stronghold of Saratoga County, which has over a quarter of the absentee ballots that have been returned, has not yet reported anything, and neither have the pro-Murphy counties of Warren and Washington, which combined have just slightly less returned absentees than Saratoga, and other counties are in various stages of progress.
One other thing that clouds the picture is that the campaigns have had the ability to challenge absentee envelopes before they are opened, setting them aside pending a later ruling by the judge in the contest. The Times Union reports that Essex County has had 31 challenges, compared to 150 votes counted. And it's even more stark in Columbia: 83 challenges in the county's list -- which a Tedisco volunteer attorney said have come more from the Republicans -- compared to 141 votes counted.
Josh
Matt
Eric
I'm still betting this one's over before the Senate race in Minn.
April 10, 2009 9:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Only because they have a fraction of the ballots to deal with, and if either candidate takes it to the NY supreme court, don't bet on which will be over first.
April 10, 2009 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
The length of a legal challenge to this election isn't as much of an issue though. Unlike the Minnesota Senate race, the House can just go ahead and seat the winner while the legal challenge proceeds. (The Senate could do that too, but they'd have to deal with a Republican filibuster.)
April 10, 2009 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sure this will be over first. It's inconsequential, so neither party has any real incentive to drag things out if they're losing. I guarantee that if the Coleman/Franken fight were over a house seat, the GOP would not have found it worth the cost in dollars and PR and it would have been over long ago.
April 10, 2009 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll be looking for the later updates.
April 10, 2009 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Poughkeepsie Journal gives the number Murphy is up at 55 based on some additional results from Dutchess County (but it's not clear they have all the results included in your tally).
April 10, 2009 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's looking more like Murphy will have enough of a lead to overcome a likely Tedisco advantage among the military ballots, which still total less than 200.
A lot of those challenged ballots will also ultimately be allowed. Tedisco is trying to disqualify people who have dual residences, even if they have voted regularly in the district in the past. There is no legal basis for that and it is simply an attempt to keep Murphy from appearing further ahead.
April 10, 2009 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Republicans are such sore losers!
April 10, 2009 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
What a neck and neck horse race this one is.
April 10, 2009 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Supposedly Tedisco was challenging any absentee ballot if the person had a rent controlled apartment in NYC. I guess it would cause headaches for the voter with their NYC landlord, so Tedisco is banking on the voter deciding not to go to court to respond to the challenge, which would cause the vote to be thrown out.
There was a Kos blog on this yesterday, and that's the gist I got out of it.
April 10, 2009 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm kind of curious about this and can't find it on Kos.
You mean people have dual residency and NYC rent-control depends upon the rent-controlled apt being a primary residence and if a renter is outed then they lose it? If that's the gist, then its a pretty devious (and, unfortunately, smart) tactic from Tedisco's team.
April 10, 2009 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does the voter have to go to court? That doesn't seem right...seems like all the challenged ballots would go to court and it would be the campaigns arguing over them. That would make this tactic less important, but it still makes sense:
"rent-controlled NYC apartment-dwellers" is an easily identifiable demographic which doubtlessly skews heavily Democratic. But of course if the voters themselves don't have to get involved these challenges are highly unlikely to survive the adjudication process.
April 10, 2009 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Once again the republicans are making a bunch of frivolous challenges, in the hope of getting more Democratic votes thrown out. It didn't work in Minnesota and I hope it won't work here.
April 10, 2009 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your NYC apartment needs to be your primary residence to maintain your rent-stabilized or rent-controlled status, but I'm pretty sure that where you vote from does not have to be your primary residence (ie lots of college students vote from their dorm address). So I'm pretty sure a NYC resident can maintain a primary residence in the city but vote from an upstate house they own, as long as they don't try to vote from both places.
April 10, 2009 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are correct sir! Having been in NYC Rent-Controlled and Rent-Stabilized apartments and having had an upstate 2nd home in nearby Ulster County (NY-22, Mo Hinchey territory, not NY-20) I have direct experience with this issue. I chose to vote in NYC anyhow.
Tedisco's buying time but my money's on Murphy in a squeaker, sworn in and seated before Franken.
Sullynyc
April 10, 2009 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
In the four counties where they are done counting absentee ballots Murphy did 3.5% better than he did on election night. If that trend continues he will pick up about 600 votes before the military and overseas ballots are counted.
April 10, 2009 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink