Murphy Leads By 168 Votes, As Absentees Come In Strong
The latest absentee ballot count in the NY-20 special election is looking very good for Democratic candidate Scott Murphy, with his lead now at 168 votes as new results have come in from the pro-Murphy counties of Columbia, Dutchess and Warren, compared to a 47-vote lead at the close of business yesterday.
We're seeing a continuation of the trend of Murphy doing even better in the percentage of the absentee vote in a given county, compared to the Election Night vote. Some examples of what I mean: Murphy won Dutchess County with 51.5% on Election Night, but in the portion of absentees counted so far he has 54.0%. And although Murphy got only 44.4% of the Election Night vote in Greene County, he's at 48.3% in their absentees, ahead of the baseline.
Only one county, Otsego, has proven to be an exception to this rule. But it only cast about two percent of the total absentees, and is more than outweighed by the trend in other counties.
Another thing to keep in mind is that Murphy is cleaning up on absentees even with the heavy number of ballot-envelope challenges being lodged by the Tedisco campaign. For example, Murphy in Columbia County leads among absentees by a raw-vote margin of 250-127, or 66.4%-33.6% -- and that's with 194 ballots having been challenged by Tedisco, compared to 19 by Murphy, and one of them challenged by both. (And let's just say it again: One of those 194 Tedisco challenges in this county is against U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's ballot.)
If any decent-sized portion of those ballots are allowed into the count, that would provide Murphy a solid boost. After all, no campaign would ever seek to kick a ballot out unless they thought, rightly or wrongly, that it was a vote for the other guy.
What we're still missing here are any absentee numbers from the Tedisco stronghold of Saratoga County and the smaller but still significant pro-Murphy area of Washington County, and some of the counties that have reported are still only partially done. But for Tedisco to win, with the data we now have, he would need to really make a splash among the remaining absentees and win on almost all the ballot challenges -- a tough order, to say the least, though admittedly not impossible.
Josh
Matt
Eric
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR TEDISCO!!!
April 15, 2009 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
A turd in Michael Steele's breakfast bowl!
April 15, 2009 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Albany Project frontpages a couple of different projections (one by legendary Nate Silver) on the outcome. Summary: It looks very good for Murphy, even if Tedisco does very well with the Saratoga County absentees.
http://www.thealbanyproject.com/diary/6269/ny20-nate-silver-tedisco-bound-for-defeat
April 15, 2009 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, I was just going to ask about Saratoga. Thanks, Davidsfr.
April 15, 2009 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's a nifty site, thanks! For people not wanting to click it, be advised of the prediction of 500-600 final vote margin for Scott Murphy. Tedisco's run is, as they say, "doomed."
April 15, 2009 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why isn't Saratoga even counting yet? Seems mightily suspicious. As if they're waiting to see how many votes Tedisco will need so they can give it to him when they finally get around to "counting".
April 15, 2009 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Saratoga is counting, but is not releasing interim reports. They will report when they are done. I don't know if it is the same with Washington, which also has not reported (and which will likely go for Murphy).
Saratoga is being slowed by hundreds of challenges - my understanding is that Tedisco is challenging Skidmore students systematically as well as people who have a second home outside the district.
April 15, 2009 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Once again, I would advise caution. I know what is being reported, and what it looks like is happening, or what should happen, but that may not be what actually IS happening behind the scenes, on the ground.
Look, Saratoga and Washington counties still report nothing from their paper. How can you say anything about anything definitively until you get at least SOME sense of where the absentee vote in those counties are going?
Moreover, the RNC and Republicans just in general staked a lot on this race. Especially M. Steele. They brought out ALL the heavy hitters, and out spent Murphy by a good margin. And billed the race as a referendum on Obama's activist policies. They HAVE to win. Otherwise, the calls for Steele's head will be deafening. Absolutely nothing will be beneath them to pull out a win here.
Finally, Judge Brands is a pro-Republican, right leaning Judge. He will tend to follow the decisions he's made in the past; when faced with similar circumstances. Which should favor Tedisco. At least on some level; relative to challenged ballots.
This one has a long way to go.
The Dems need to lawyer up as much as possible. And stay vigilant and have their challenges and appeals ready.
April 15, 2009 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Did you look at the Albany Project site noted above? They're quoting two different analysts, one of them being Nate Silver. Lawyering is definitely good advice, though, sure.
April 15, 2009 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. I read Nate's column on his 538 website this morning. Agreed. The projections look encouraging. And Nate's normally right. I'm certainly not going to say anything negative about his conclusions. He's a much better analyst than I am with the numbers; hands down.
But this is a special case. As are all special elections. Especially given all the emphasis and what (unless I miss my guess) is riding on this election for M. Steele's future. Whether he remains RNC chair or not.
I'll feel better when we start getting some real numbers from Saratoga and Washington county's paper. And start seeing some solid court decisions coming out, relative to challenged ballots.
Then we'll see.
April 15, 2009 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do we know what procedures are in place in NY state law regarding recounts? Is it automatic, is there even a recount allowed? What is being said now is likely very similar to what conservatives were getting excited about on election night for Norm Coleman.
Similarly, in all fairness, if this is challenged and the recount leads to a Tedisco victory, all of the people telling Norm to drop out are going to look pretty hypocritical if they don't tell Murphy the same. I'd love to see Al Franken win, and I'd love to see Tedisco lose, but I know that for every person like me out there, there is another who sees the exact opposite.
April 15, 2009 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
The "recount" is going on right now--that is the canvassing and recanvassing of the ballots. This is in effect the same as a recount.
Also, Franken currently has a clear lead after exhaustive counting and deliberation regarding what ballots to qualify and disqualify. That is not the case in NY-20, at least at this point.
April 15, 2009 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Though it wouldn't be the first time I was wrong, I'm under the impression that what is currently happening is that absentee ballots are being tallied. Weren't the precincts done reporting days ago? Surely any alterations to those original numbers given to the state would be challenged by the candidates.
April 15, 2009 10:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Minnesota raised the bar in conducting fair and unbiased recounts of close elections. Let's hope the NY recount follows that model.
April 15, 2009 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, Minnesota did raise the bar on transparency, fairness, and simple good American common sense. I honestly quit believing in any of those things the day Bush v Gore stopped the Florida recount and our long national nightmare began.
Good luck to the Dems in NY fighting this one out. The Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them will be out in droves to steal the most precious gift a democracy offers ..... an honest election.
April 15, 2009 1:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
This really is starting to look good. And this sends a message loud and strong. Registered Rebubs in this district outnumber Dems by 75,000 and they still can't win.
April 15, 2009 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Saratoga has finally reported, showing a 163 vote margin for the Disco, (57% to 43%) and Murphy continues to maintain an 86 vote lead, not including all the absurd challenges from the 'Disco camp:
http://www.elections.state.ny.us/NYSBOE/Elections/2009/Special/20thCDSpecialUnofficialResults041509b.pdf
Good stuff. Looking very good for the Dems :)
April 15, 2009 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. Not only is Saratoga in, it ALL in. Except for challenges. Washington came in as well and its ALL in except for challenges.
The only counties out now (that still have at least some to count) are Columbia, Dutchess, and Essex (Murphy counties) and Rensselaer (Tedisco).
And Murphy still leads by 86.
Looks real good for Murphy. Saratoga and Washington come in, and he STILL leads.
Very nice. Looks good.
April 15, 2009 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
As other's have noted, Nate Silver sees the numbers strongly favoring Murphy -- and Nate's analysis of the Franken recount way back in early November turned out to be spot on.
Fortunately, the Democrats seem fully prepared for Republican shenanigans -- which is a nice change from 2000-2004. And we can safely assume that the vast majority of ballots challenged by Tedisco will both be allowed in, and will be votes for Murphy.
Sure, the local judge may try to help Tedisco, but if the separation continues to grow it may not make a difference. Furthermore, the appeals courts won't be in Tedisco's back pocket, and Tedicso doesn't have a Republican presidential hopeful as his governor, like Coleman does, to help provide cover.
The most likely result is a close but decisive victory for Murphy and Republicans firing up their supporters with cries of ACORN and election fixing. While I'm definitely worried about the level of craziness in the Republican base, I can't see that this issue will make them any more outraged than they already are.
April 15, 2009 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like the conservative judge ruled for Murphy bigtime on 'Disco's challenges:
http://www.politickerny.com/3099/ny-20-judge-most-objections-invalid
It's all over but the singing (and dancing).
Also, some local flavor:
http://www.thealbanyproject.com/diary/6271/ny20-breaking-tedisco-loses-in-court-nets-only-163-votes-in-saratoga
April 15, 2009 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink