Murphy Leads By 273 Votes, With Initial Phase Of Absentee-Counting Finished
The counties are now all done with the initial counting of absentee ballots in the NY-20 special election, and the latest results show Democratic candidate Scott Murphy ahead of Republican Jim Tedisco by 273 votes, as the counting finished up in the pro-Murphy areas of Dutchess and Washington Counties.
There now remain about 1,500 challenged absentee ballot envelopes, most of which have been kept completely out of the count based on objections lodged by the campaigns. It appears that far more challenges were lodged by the Tedisco campaign than by Murphy, which would lead to Murphy picking up more net votes due to the expectation that the vast majority of challenges will be thrown out and the ballots counted. The court review of the challenged ballots will begin on Monday.
At this point, it's difficult to envision a scenario under which Tedisco wins.
Late Update: The Tedisco campaign gives us this statement from their attorney James E. Walsh:
"After two weeks of counting the votes, the one thing that remains certain is that this continues to be a remarkably close race and every vote matters. On Monday, we intend to make our case before the judge that this important election should be decided by the lawful voters of the 20th Congressional district and not by residents of New York City."
Josh
Matt
Eric
I believe the challenges are 2:1 by Tedisco. So Tedisco challenged 1000 ballots and Murphy 500 ballots. It's believed most will be allowed in, meaning Murphy will gain further 500 ballot lead, making the final difference +750ish.
April 17, 2009 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
That would seal it. Thankfully there will be no prob certifying the election like Minnesota.
April 18, 2009 1:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
This roughly tracks with two analyses we'd seen, one by Nate Silver, projecting a Murphy advantage of 500-600 votes overall.
April 18, 2009 2:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Its all over but the Republican tears. And the resignation of M. Steele.
April 17, 2009 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
We need Steele to stick around. He's the best friend the democrats have. I'm starting to believe he's actually on our side.
April 17, 2009 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Steele is a symbol. In and of himself, he's nothing. But, given many in the Republican Party placed their faith and hope in him, as a cog in the future of the Conservative Movement, the bullseye on his forehead, is relevant; from a symbolic and morale standpoint.
He went big game hunting in NY-20. Confident and full of hubris. And the ultimate irony will be:
"Play with the Bull, and you get the Horn".
Take him down, and you also take down a large chuck of what is left of the opponent.
Get a clue. Shoot him in the head (figuratively of course).
Go Blue!!!!
April 17, 2009 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
How long would we expect this trial / challenge resolution to take?
April 17, 2009 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
This election is a referendum on Obama!!!
Or something. I forget, is that still operational, or is this now an inconsequential special election with low turnout that means nothing?
Can anyone help?
April 17, 2009 6:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, whenever some reflects positively on Obama, its prior relevance to Obama is thereby rendered null and void. (see: Pirate Crisis, Stock Market).
April 18, 2009 9:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is foundation laying for a 2010 challenge, which will attempt to paint Murphy as the City Guy.
April 18, 2009 1:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, I think the Republicans are complaining about the laws which allow voters to choose a voting residence and want to change the rules in the middle of the game.
April 19, 2009 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
To put Murphy's lead in perspective, tiny as it is, it's about what Coleman had after the first canvass by local election officials. That was with over 2.9 million votes. This election has 159,405 votes so far with a few more to come. That's roughly 5% as many votes. Proportionately, to have the same lead, Coleman would have needed almost 5,000 votes. Or we could figure the Minnesota recount was about a lead of 1/20 as many votes. That makes Murphy's lead massive by comparison. I think he can start measuring drapes.
As for what his win tells us, this purple district remains purple. The race is a tie, like the polls predicted. I have also noticed a trend since roughly 2003 where Democrats defy conventional wisdom and do just fine in special elections. Maybe it's no longer true that low-turnout elections favor Republicans.
April 18, 2009 2:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent post. Very enlightening comparison between the MN race and NY-20. Kudos.
April 18, 2009 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink