Murphy's Lead Now 264 Votes In NY-20
The latest score in the NY-20 special election shows Democratic candidate Scott Murphy ahead of Republican Jim Tedisco by 264 votes, as more absentee ballots were tallied in the Murphy strongholds of Columbia and Warren Counties.
In the absentee ballots counted so far, Murphy's percentage of the vote has been better for most counties than his Election Night totals were on a county by county basis. The only exceptions have been Saratoga County, the single largest county and a Tedisco stronghold, and Otsego County, which only cast about two percent of the total absentees. But the overall trend elsewhere has more than outweighed those two.
There are still over 1,200 absentee ballot envelopes that have been set aside as a result of challenges by the campaigns, pending court proceedings on Monday. But a key ruling by the judge presiding over this case made it likely that the vast majority of these challenges will be overruled, and the ballots will be opened and counted.
It appears that more of these challenges came from the Tedisco camp and from Murphy -- for example, the numbers from Columbia County show about 200 more challenges from Tedisco than from Murphy -- which would mean that Murphy stands to gain more votes when the ballots are counted. Indeed, The Hill is already pronouncing that Murphy is headed to a likely win here.
Josh
Matt
Eric
Brian
Precisely why it's essential to the preservation of democracy in America that the court grant Tedisco's motion for summary judgement declaring him the winner.
NY State electoral litigation has always been a bastion of up-is-down-ism, and this tradition must be preserved.
April 17, 2009 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
You KNOW the Republican is resigned to losing when they are a judge to OVERRULE the vote count and 'declare' them the winner.
The GOP gets more and more fun to watch with every passing election cycle. It's like watching a beached whale struggling for air - in an atmosphere where there is less and less air available.
April 17, 2009 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know if I'd think it was fun to watch a beached whale dying.
But watching the Republican party continually ignore the fact that it needs to regroup, deny that there are internal problems, and continue to flail about? Ok, I'll watch that.
April 17, 2009 11:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Co-sign.
April 17, 2009 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think you guys are missing the boat on the Republican mind set and personality. They are hard wired this way. A Hannah Arendt quote states: "The chief qualification of a mass leader has become unending infallibility; he can never admit an error."
They can't admit error for as Arendt continued: "The trouble with lying and deceiving is that their efficiency depends entirely upon a clear notion of the truth that the liar and deceiver wishes to hide."
This was a 50 year idealogy conceived in the '50's, seeded in the '60's and groomed in the '70's, where it was fully unveiled in the '80's where it was operational the last 20 years. This is its outcome.
PJ O'Rourke the Republican Reptile called it after 2008 Election, An entire generation has been born, grown up, and had families of its own since Ronald Reagan was elected. And where is the world we promised these children of the Conservative Age? Where is this land of freedom and responsibility, knowledge, opportunity, accomplishment, honor, truth, trust, and one boring hour each week spent in itchy clothes at church, synagogue, or mosque? It lies in ruins at our feet, as well it might, since we ourselves kicked the shining city upon a hill into dust and rubble.
Meaning it was an illusion. This idea that they are entitled to rule, is not working as Thomas Merton stated: " the tighter they squeeze the less they will have"
April 17, 2009 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
What's more interesting is they're not aware the parasites they're carrying are malignant.
April 17, 2009 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
A small point of biological fact. Whales are mammals, not fish, and therefore they are capable of breathing air. Beached whales are trying to return to the water - breathing isn't an issue for them.
April 17, 2009 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, I think it is a problem. They are 'built' to have the buoyancy of the water while they breath.
April 17, 2009 1:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's their weight. They can't breath because without the saltwater of offset their weight, they don't have the muscles necessary to function out of the water. It's the same as if you had to, all of a sudden, carry and extra 300 pounds on your back. You could do it for a while, but eventually you'd tired and collapse. The strain would be too much for your heart and it would give out.
April 17, 2009 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
A huge chuck of 449 newly counted votes come in from Columbia and Warren counties (both Murphy strongholds). Murphy took the count 268-181, gaining 86 or so votes to his net total lead; standing now at 264.
On top of that, unless the number of reported challenged ballots is low (1200), more votes should be coming in from Murphy counties like Columbia, Dutchess, Warren, and/or perhaps Washington later today; probably extending Murphy's lead even further. Also, except for challenged ballots, the Tedisco counties are basically done. We won't see much more coming out of them until next week when the challenged ballots are gone over by Judge Brand.
Bottom Line: Unless every single challenged ballot in Saratoga county is a Tedisco vote (about 750; which would be inconceivable), looking at these numbers, I just don't see how Tedisco can catch up.
The Fat Lady is warming up.
April 17, 2009 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Have the military absentee ballots been included in these counts? (Not a rhetorical question; I don't know either way.)
April 17, 2009 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
According to what is being released by the state, yes:
http://www.elections.state.ny.us/
April 17, 2009 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
The military votes are all in. Washington Co. is all in. There are a trickle of remaining unchallenged votes to come from Dutchess and Warren, both pro-Murphy. The unchallenged count will apparently end up about +300 Murphy.
The district challenged number apparently exceeds 1550. Assuming that about 1400 of the challenges are not well-founded, unless the strongly partisan republican judge Brands is willing to go through those 1400 mostly Murphy votes and blatantly cherry-pick only the Republicans, there's no way Tedisco can pick up the ~300 he'll need.
So I guess that's why it would save trouble for the judge to simply declare Tedisco the winner, as he has petitioned.
April 17, 2009 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good post. Agree completely with you're conclusions. I suspected the number of challenged ballots being reported was low. Nice to have a little confirmation of that.
April 17, 2009 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Also, do you know if Columbia is all in? By my numbers, they still have a "trickle" as you put it, to come in that is unchallenged.
April 17, 2009 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Never mind. I see that Columbia is all in.
April 17, 2009 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
We need to see if this report about Tedisco filing this suit is true.
It may have been erroneously reported by the Register Star writer, who may have confused the filing Tedisco made on election day with a new one.
No other news organizations are reporting on this yet, so I would wait and see.
April 17, 2009 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
It gets better and better.
April 17, 2009 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do Democrats expect Tedisco to challenge the final count in court for months, as Coleman has? Would Tedisco/Republicans have to pay the court costs if he does challenge?
April 17, 2009 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink