Poll: Majority Favors Ending Cuba Embargo
A new Gallup poll finds that a majority of Americans favor ending the Cuba embargo -- and in fact, this isn't a new opinion.
The numbers: 51% favor ending the embargo, to only 36% against it, with a ±3% margin of error. Back in 1999 it was 51%-39%, in 2000 it was a plurality of 48%-42%, and in 2002 it was 50%-38%.
At this point it's worth asking: Why is it seen as so controversial and politically risky to favor ending the embargo, or even making lesser moves towards rolling back sanctions against Cuba, when those views in fact have such consistent popular support?
And here is where we meet the political reality. The folks who really care about keeping the embargo are largely concentrated in Florida, a perennially super-close swing state with 27 electoral votes.
Josh
Matt
Eric
Brian
It's considered politically risky because those opposed are more motivated and politically active.
April 23, 2009 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Uh...because it's really stupid to form policy or legislation based on the prevailing popular wind? Think Prop 8. Think women not being allowed to vote. Think slavery. All pretty popular at one time or another, all eventually found to be reprehensible.
I'm not saying that the embargo should continue, but rather that popular opinion in all of its vagaries is the least compelling justification for change.
April 23, 2009 2:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
And here is where we meet the political reality. The folks who really care about keeping the embargo are largely concentrated in Florida, a perennially super-close swing state with 27 electoral votes.
And which Obama could have lost in 2008 but still won the election.
Y'know. Just saying.
It's said that the real basis of Bush's power was that he found an electoral map that bypassed California...
April 23, 2009 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remember little Elian Gonzalez? Remember how worked up the Cuban ex-pats and their descendants got about that? Plus, of course, the hate-radio talkers who whipped up their listeners. Those are the people who will come unglued if Cuba becomes just another neighbor.
I vividly remember the Cuban missle crisis. I was 11 and I was sure every day that that was the day a bomb was going to be dropped on me. My parents were very much into protecting us from the news, but this one they couldn't protect us from. I was a rather optimistic and fanciful child, but for those days I thought we were all going to die right then and there.
I don't think it's too soon to close the book on this last vestige of the cold war even if it means upsetting the Cuban population in Florida. They'll get over it and may even come to appreciate it.
April 23, 2009 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
It will happen. In the next couple of years it will happen.
April 23, 2009 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting that the percentage favoring ending embargo has not increased recently. Looks similar to recent polls on Obama vs. various GOP in '12. A litmus test issue?
April 27, 2009 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink