Poll: Paterson Way Down In New York, Gillibrand Largely Unknown
A new Quinnipiac poll finds that Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) continues to be on course for a defeat in 2010, should he seek a full term.
In a Democratic primary against state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, Paterson trails by a 61%-18% margin. In a general election with Rudy Giuliani, Rudy is ahead of Paterson by 53%-32%, while at the same time Cuomo would beat Giuliani 53%-36%. The poll also finds that registered voters say Paterson shouldn't run, by a 53%-39% margin -- including a 49%-45% plurality among Democrats.
Meanwhile, appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has some mixed news from this survey. In a Democratic primary, she trails Rep. Carolyn McCarthy by 33%-29%, with a large number of undecideds -- though this is an improvement for Gillibrand from a 34%-24% McCarthy lead from a month and a half ago. In a general election with GOP Rep. Peter King, Gillibrand leads by 40%-28%, and McCarthy was not tested.
Gillibrand's biggest problem is that people still don't know her -- she has only 33% approval and 13% disapproval, with a 54% majority having no opinion. And her favorable rating is 24% to 11% unfavorable, with 64% no opinion. By contrast, Paterson's problem is that people do have an opinion: They don't like him.
Josh
Matt
Eric
I was called for that poll, yesterday evening. It was the first time I ever participated in one. I'm for Paterson all the way and Gillebrand probably and was hoping my input would help their numbers. Oh well.
April 6, 2009 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Patterson's handling of the Senate vacancy was terrible, and created unnecessary problems for the party. He obviously didn't think through the consequences of his decision and seems to have picked Gillebrand just becuase he personally liked her. It may lose us a House seat and risks losing us a Senate seat in 2010. If he runs in 2010, we risk losing this state to whacko Rudy.
Is there something good about Petterson that I am missing?
April 6, 2009 10:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. Those numbers are beyond awful. I don't recall ever seeing such numbers against an incumbent who did commit a crime or it was alleged committed a crime. Stick a fork in him. He is done.
I'm not real hot about gillibrand, I guess time will tell and that's basically what people are saying. Let's see what happens.
April 6, 2009 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
I can't think of anything necessarily good or great that Paterson has done, but I find it hard to get that worked up over his handling of Clinton's senate seat. I mean, anytime the Kennedys are involved in the mix you are going to have drama. It was an unnecessary distraction but I blame it more on the media than on Paterson or the Kennedys. As for picking Gillibrand, yeah, I would have chose somebody else from a safer district (if the pick was going to be a member of Congress), but the Dems may end up winning the district anyway. And if they don't, it doesn't really affect the balance of power in the House - just gives the GOP a win that they can use - inaccurately, of course - to show that "they're back".
April 6, 2009 10:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
That said, with these numbers, the guy better not run. Better to let Cuomo - if he decides to run - focus his attention on the general election. I think Cuomo would beat any GOP challenger...and probably pretty easily.
April 6, 2009 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
He supplied SNL with some funny skit material.
April 6, 2009 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
II blame the drama over the Senate appointment on a fight between the Clintons and Bloomberg. Paterson did exactly what he said he would do right from the start - wait until Clinton was confirmed, and try to pick a female/hispanic/upstate candidate. He's gotten more done on the budget than Spitzer ever would have.
April 6, 2009 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Paterson did exactly what he said he would do right from the start - wait until Clinton was confirmed, and try to pick a female/hispanic/upstate candidate."
You're making that up. Paterson never said any such thing and he certainly never said that from the beginning. If he had, then Steve Israel, Gregory Meek and Caroline Kennedy would not have wasted their time since they don't fit that criteria.
The guy is a disaster! How he could fuck up a slam dunk like a senate pick is beyond me.
He's also a thin-skinned liar. Instead of letting Caroline Kennedy drop out, he sent out his inept political hit squad to smear her with lies about nannies and back taxes.
If he had two brain cells, he'd not run for re-election but since he's proved that he does not, I hope he goes down hard.
April 6, 2009 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't write off Paterson yet, others have come back from poor poll numbers to win reelection.
Gillibrand I am confident will end up winning nomination and election in her own right; this woman is an awesome candidate and I expect she will end up not being primaried when others see the strong position she is in.
BTW, Paterson chose Gillibrand because Schumer wanted her. Paterson didn't have the juice to contradict Schumer, who is definitely the most powerful elected official in the state now.
And fears of losing the senate seat in 2010 are wholly unwarranted. If we don't hold the house seat now we will most likely win it in 2010, since turnout will be higher and the democratic trend in the district that much further along.
April 6, 2009 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
paterson is not capable and has shown it to anyone who is watching.
thats why he polls this way.
most people like him but believe he is in way over his head.
i doubt he will run as no one will give him a dime.
so its cuomos if he wants it and since his ambition has no limit, expect to see him run and win.
and forget rudy, the drag queen, he is finished in politics.
April 6, 2009 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
What is with New Yorkers obsession with Giuliani?
I thought it was pretty well established during the GOP primary that he is ineffectual and basically not very competent, but I guess I was wrong.
I suppose it has to do with 9/11, but I still don't understand why he gets praise. He seemed to just be there--and wasn't the reason he was on the streets because he had the command center placed in the towers despite the towers being a previous target of terrorism?
April 6, 2009 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
How can anyone like Paterson? I think it's pretty obvious he never actually expected to become governor as he's completely unprepared for the job. He's been worthless with coming up with a decent budget, worthless at sorting out major problems, and the only positive votes I can see for him are sympathy votes.
He should just leave.
April 6, 2009 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
It looks like Cuomo is taking the first step towards a run today by choosing to blast Paterson on the budgetary crisis. How will Democrats manage to even keep the seat if Cuomo passes?
April 6, 2009 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank goodness it's Rudy running, otherwise I'd be a bit worried.
Repubs only do well in Blue states when the Dem incumbent stumbles badly while in office (cf Chris Dodd). But Cuomo is a "rising star" and we certainly need a few of them in any case.
April 6, 2009 4:23 PM | Reply | Permalink