The Latest Score In NY-20: Unknown
And the latest official numbers in NY-20 are...pretty much the same as yesterday, with Republican candidate Jim Tedisco leading by 17 votes. But really, at this point that number is obsolete, as absentee ballots are being counted and not yet reported -- we don't know what's going on.
Only one change has been officially registered since yesterday, with both Tedisco and Democratic candidate Scott Murphy gaining one vote each in Essex County, not affecting the margin. Only one county is left that hasn't sent recanvassed machine totals to the state, Greene County. And as a State Elections Board spokesman explained to us, we won't know exactly what the recanvass there will produce because Greene is recanvassing while simultaneously counting their absentee ballots, thus jumbling those numbers together when they do arrive.
And here's where it gets complicated. The Murphy campaign just put out a press release declaring that Delaware County has completely counted their absentees, the first county to do so, and Murphy has netted 20 votes. (The folks at the county appear to have gone home, as nobody is answering the phone.) These numbers are not in the state's totals right now.
Looking at that Delaware County number for a second, if it's true it would put Murphy ahead by three votes. But we really can't take the number by itself at all, because other counties are continuing to tally votes, too.
However, the interesting part here is that Tedisco won this county overall in the Election Day count by 50.2%-49.8%. And the voter registrations for the returned absentee ballots show a Republican advantage of 151 GOP against 106 Dems, or 52%-37% as a percentage. If the Murphy campaign's claim is true, then this could be a good omen of how the absentees might work out -- or it might just be a fluke, to be counteracted by an as-yet unrevealed Tedisco pickup in a pro-Murphy county.
The counties are just getting started on counting the votes, and this process will take a while longer. For example, Columbia County told me they've made it through less than 100 ballots so far, out of nearly 1,000, and numbers haven't been released for the votes counted so far.
Late Update: Tedisco attorney James E. Walsh just put out this statement:
"We are just now getting into the paper ballots and we expect that the numbers will continue to move, just as they did last week. As the day comes to a close, we feel very good about our position and continue to believe that the final tally will show Jim Tedisco as the winner. As we have said all along, the primary focus is to make sure that every lawful ballot be counted so that residents of the 20th district can have confidence in the ultimate outcome."




















PolitikerNY has the latest, which shows pickups for Murphy in several other counties, including parts of Columbia, Rensselaer and Dutchess, but without any word yet from Saratoga, Tedisco's strongest county.
Apparently an update will be posted on the NY Board of Elections site at 10:00 am tomorrow.
April 8, 2009 8:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
The NRCC claims an 800+ registration advantage on absentee ballots
Looks like Tedisco's to lose
April 8, 2009 11:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nate at 538 seems to think the absentees will break for Murphy:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/04/ny-20-absentee-ballot-distribution.html
It will be interesting to see if the R's play the same game they've been playing in MN. The problem is, keeping Murphy out doesn't have the same payoff that keeping Franken out of the Senate does, so the cost of lawyering up may not seem worth it. On the other hand, if they don't play it the same as MN, they expose themselves to criticism: why only in MN? Isn't 'counting every vote' just as important to NY voters as it is to MN voters? Or, is there another reason the R's put up a big fight in MN and not NY? (Duh.) Of course, politicians don't mind stewing in their own hypocrisy... so I think this thing gets resolved after a recount, without lawsuits.
April 9, 2009 12:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Coleman just said if he was back in New York, he'd concede and not drag this out.
Hey, my sources are as good whatever Limbaugh uses.
April 9, 2009 12:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tedisco is trying to suppress the absentee votes of people who have homes both Upstate and in the NYC area. This is completely bogus, as there is no evidence these people vote in both places, and the challenging of the ballots is uniform in this category.
Murphy should respond by challenging every single ballot of a person who has a second home in Florida or any other southern, typical retirement state. Neither challenge is valid, but a response is in order.
April 9, 2009 9:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree a response is in order, but not that one. The high road has different rules of engagement. The GOP game of disenfranchising Democratic voters while accusing the Dems of doing exactly that is truly disgusting and we can't stoop to that level. The courts and the court of public opinion is our venue.
April 9, 2009 9:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
I just talked to Senator Franken, and he agrees with you 100%.
April 9, 2009 9:55 AM | Reply | Permalink