The Sestak Speculative Senate Bubble
For the past couple weeks, events have drawn our attention to Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), who's serving his second term in Pennsylvania's seventh congressional district. Specifically, he's been taking the lead in support of Defense Secretary Robert Gates' budget proposal, which I discussed with him at length earlier this week.
Neither he nor his staff are shy about the fact that he's trying to position himself out in front of this issue, and it's a big one--sure to result in a bruising political fight in the weeks ahead. In a way, he's the natural surrogate for it--a former Navy rear admiral, who's been arguing for similar reforms, both within and outside of the military for years.
But there's also the question of Pennsylvania politics. As my colleague Eric Kleefeld reported yesterday, former congressman and conservative's conservative Pat Toomey has announced that he'll be challenging Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) in the 2010 primary. Specter is very popular in Pennsylvania, but not particularly popular among its conservative residents. If he wins that primary challenge, he'll be a formidable challenger for any Pennsylvania Democrat. But if Toomey wins, it's a whole new ball game.
And that's where Sestak (may) come in.
He told Roll Call back in December that he wasn't interested in running for Senate. But, obviously, a lot's changed since then--including the size of his campaign war chest. He's raised more than a half million dollars this year alone, and sits on over $3 million worth of loot. And, as of now, he'd only have to defeat one Pennsylvania Democrat--businessman Joseph Torsella--in the primary.
I put the question to his staff this morning and...well, all I can report is that his communications director didn't immediately stand by his statement from December. More to come hopefully, and in the mean time, keep your eye on the Sestak bubble.


















The issue being that the Democratic candidates will have had to declare their intentions before the GOP primary between Toomey and Specter is decided.
April 16, 2009 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sestak would be awesome. And to tell you the truth, I think that he could beat Specter. Old Arlen's reelect numbers are not strong, and most voters polled think that he is too old to be running again. Sestak comes from the Philly suburbs that used to form the Republican core or Specter's base, until they all became Democrats. In addition, Specter is not loved here in central PA, the new Republican heartland, since he is pro-choice and not a Christian fundamentalist.
April 16, 2009 10:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for putting in the call!
I think Sestak could beat Arlen in a head-to-head race.
The reason that Arlen was able to capture a lot of indepedent and moderate Dem votes last time is two fold.
Issue 1: Bush/Repubs were still moderately popular in PA, Bush lost to Kerry by only 200,000 votes, John McCain lost to Obama by 600,000. So Arlen would have to go against a much headier trade wind.
Issue 2: In 2004 I voted for Arlen because I knew if he won that he would be head of the Judiciary committee, and I would rather see him there than some extremist like Orrin Hatch or Jon Kyl. There is no such chance this time around.
April 16, 2009 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
What about Allyson Schwartz? She has phenomenal grass roots fundraising prowess and solid cred on the issues. She's powerful in Montgomery County and, I think, has what it takes to win the general even against Senator Specter.
April 16, 2009 6:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Specter is very popular in Pennsylvania"
Or not. The latest CBS poll puts him at 45 percent favorable vs. 31 percent unfavorable.
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/03/25/politics/politicalhotsheet/entry4892947.shtml
April 16, 2009 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Q poll puts Specter's re-elect numbers at 38% re-elect, 41% do not re-elect. He's ripe for the picking.
April 16, 2009 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I still don't understand why Arlen didn't try to cut a deal with the Dem. Sen. Campaign Committee 6 weeks ago: I switch parties, and you get me through the Democratic primary process.
It reminds me of a line from Miller's Crossing:
VERNA:
You always take the long way around to get what you want, don't you [Arlen].
. . . You could have just asked.
April 16, 2009 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Senator from Comcast lost his marbles a long time ago. He is 78 years old and a survivor of brain cancer, think of how many 78 year old former brain cancer survivors you know who are 100% there mentally.
Just look at what the Senator from Comcast was doing about this time last year, as the financial markets were crumbling all around us he was investigating "Spygate". Not the spying by the NSA, but the New England Patriots supposed taping of a Pittsburgh Steelers football game. WOW, talk about the Senator from Comcast having his priorities in line.
BTW - Specter's biggest campaign donor is Comcast, based out of Philly. Comcast was in a big dispute with the NFL over the NFL Network and Sunday ticket this time last year. Arlen was threatening to play hardball with the NFL over their anti-trust exemption. Just sayin.
April 16, 2009 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've heard this guy a few times on T.V. He seems sharp and sincere.
April 16, 2009 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
As I think someone at Daily Kos pointed out lately, House members who become Senators usually don't stay in the House very long. I think Specter is ripe for defeat even if he survives his primary. Go for it, Sestak.
April 16, 2009 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
By the way, whats up with the goofy, sexist CIVONY adds on the web site?
April 16, 2009 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
PA would welcome Senator Sestak. He would be a great senator.
Specter is so done in PA. He is not loved by conservatives and now he is totally hated by Union members. I think his stand against EFCA was for future Republican welfare jobs and money for his family and staffers.
Senator from Comcast is SOOO Over - finally.
April 16, 2009 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
"a former Navy rear admiral"
Actually, Sestak is a former three star Vice-Admiral, the second highest rank in the Navy. As a two star Vice-Admiral he commanded a carrier battle group, a position of no small responsibility.
Just to be accurate.
April 16, 2009 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is there a donation link for Sestak?
May 4, 2009 7:08 PM | Reply | Permalink