Two Polls Put Corzine Down In New Jersey
Two new polls in New Jersey show Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine trailing GOP frontrunner Chris Christie, a former U.S. Attorney under George W. Bush, in this year's gubernatorial election.
From Strategic Vision (R): Christie 47%, Corzine 36%, with a ±3% margin of error. Corzine's approval is at only 36%, to 54% disapproval.
And from Quinnipiac: Christie 45%, Corzine 38%, with a ±4.6% margin of error. Corzine's approval rating here is 37%-54%. From the pollster's analysis: "By any measure, Corzine is losing the support of key independent voters. More importantly, he is not generating the level of love from fellow Democrats he needs to offset his big negatives among Republicans and independents."
Corzine could very well lose this election. On the other hand, we have not yet made it to the crucial home-stretch period in a New Jersey election -- in which the Dems attack the GOP nominee as right-wing and Bush-friendly, which in prior elections has spurred reluctant Dem-leaners to shift back into the blue column. A big question is whether that can work again this time, with Bush now out of office.
Josh
Matt
Eric
Brian
Don't embarrass me, New Jersey.
April 22, 2009 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
I see Eric of Orange has become a bit less sanguine about the Democratic stretch and Corzine's chances as the clock ticks down
Eric is a leading indicator
April 22, 2009 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Jersey has it's own, very unique, political culture. There really is no way in hell to predict what might happen there. Corzine is smart and tough (and extremely wealthy too). Don't count him out.
April 22, 2009 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Also don't think of Christie as some right wing loon. He's a smart guy, more in line with Whitman Republicanism than the present insanity we see in the national and southern portion of the party.
I've met him and talked to him, and he just might be the first Republican I'll vote for a higher office than State Assemblyman.
Democrats have to be honest with themselves in NJ, Corzine hasn't actually done a very good job.
He's gutted public education funding in favor of maintaining several wasteful (but POPULAR!) welfare programs. He's failed to get any real concessions out of the the Democrats to help balance the budget. He's just kind of cruised along.
I'm not sure that I'll vote for Christie, but there's a chance. I just need to be able to disassociate him from the national party.
April 22, 2009 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'd have to disagree on a few points. First, Christie is no Whitman. The Bush administration stomped all over Whitman while Christie did their bidding so there's no comparison. Second, I've met Corzine and he's a good guy. New Jersey has been messed up for years by corruption and irresponsibility, things that Corzine has taken on but you seem bent on blaming the man for the problems he tried to fix.
April 22, 2009 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
NM you might want to take a look at Christie's work as a Bush appointed US attorney. He politicized his office and that's why he didn't get fired like the other ones. Check out the bizarre case he brought against Menendez just before the election trying to torpedo him.
And let me ask you, do you think you're going to get more education funding out of a Republican, any Republican, than you'll get out of Corzine?
April 22, 2009 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is hardly surprising. I would think this is one of the worst possible years to run for reëlection as a Gov, anywhere in the Union.
Every gov in the country has some sort of legal budget-balancing requirement (I think it varies state-to-state); every state in the union (except possibly AK) is in the fiscal crapper; and state legislators tend to outdo even Congress in political cowardice... So governors are having to play the heavy, delivering bad news and pushing unpopular solutions (tax hikes and program cuts). I know here in NY the airwaves are filled with appeals to "tell Governor Patterson that [budget cut X / tax hike Y] is not the solution].
I wouldn't be surprised to see some huge turnover in governors' mansions in the next year or two.
April 22, 2009 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually yes I do. The leading advocates for public higher education (with the exception of Democrats inside the districts in which schools are located) have all been Republicans.
Again, the NJ Republican party is head and shoulders above what you see on the national level. I'm still not a fan of most of our Republican Congressmen (my congressman in NJ's 7th was a complete idiot), but Christie has spoken in favor of higher ed. funding. If he changes his tune, I won't vote for him. But on the state level it's one of my big issues, and as of this moment, his message has been much more appealing than Corzine's, who seems to think the only university in this state that matters is Princeton
April 22, 2009 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
New Jersey is already so deep in the hole financially (and was even before the recession), how will Christie be able to increase funding for anything? And to top it off, he wants to cut taxes.
New Jersey's last responsible governor was Florio. But since he lost to Whitman, who promised to cut taxes, it's been nothing but budget gimmicks and kicking the can down the road.
Corzine was the first since Florio to try to get real about the budget, but the legislature balked. So now there's 16 years of denial to break through and accumulated snowballing pension and other obligations to make good on.
April 22, 2009 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know what? This is actually good news. Don't get me wrong, I'd like to see all Republicans defeated and the whole party consigned to a toxic waste dump somewhere. But I do not think incompetent and weasely, spineless Dems should be elected or re-elected just because ... they're not Republicans. There are a whole bunch of 'em that need to go.
April 22, 2009 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Corzine is not incompetent, weasely or spineless. That description might apply to the legislature, but not to him. And he's as much of an economic populist -- raised on a farm in Illinois -- as you'll ever find from someone who worked on Wall Street. Among other things, he supported universal health care years before it became an issue in the '08 presidential campaign.
Corzine's troubles stem mostly from his proposing an honest budget with some actual pain for New Jerseyans. If he loses, he will be a victim of the dissonance between what we as citizens are willing to pay for in government and what we expect to receive from government in the way of services.
April 22, 2009 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink