Dem Pollster Stan Greenberg: GOP Outfit's Poll Is "Self-Deluding"
I just got off the phone with Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg, after he'd read the rebuttal given by GOP outfit Resurgent Republic to his criticism of their new poll. His bottom line: They're still acting in a way that is, to use his phrase, "self-deluding."
Whit Ayres of Resurgent Republic responded to Greenberg's criticism, that the firm's new poll and strategy memo was slanted to produce a favorable result for GOP positions. First of all, he said the poll did not have only a two-point gap in partisan identification, as Greenberg measured it, but was a 33%-29% gap in favor of the Democrats. And he defended his phrasing of the Democratic positions, saying the intent was to effectively paraphrase what a Democrat would say.
Greenberg isn't buying it.
"I meant my response to be a little pointed. I meant it to be a little on the bemused side, at the start of the discussion," said Greenberg. "I'm sure you and Pollster.com, other blogs will answer the partisan I.D. question. Nothing changes the fact that this is an outlier on Party ID, even looking at the way he calculated it."
As for the phrasing of a particular question, this is where it gets especially heated. The Resurgent Republic poll phrased a Democratic economic position as: "Government policies should promote fairness by narrowing the gap between rich and poor, spreading the wealth, and making sure that economic outcomes are more equal."
Ayres noted that the phrase "spreading the wealth" was used by President Obama himself, and that many liberals would agree with it. Greenberg says this is still a distortion of how Obama and Democratic leaders are normally phrasing things right now.
"He's simply asserting the reasonableness of the arguments presented," said Greenberg. "But the point on which he responds, that Obama once said 'spreading the wealth around,' just underscores how much they're missing the point. That gotcha is fine in a campaign ad, for an off-hand comment. But if you're trying to test the strength of an opponent's argument and how they will advance it, you look at how they present it."
Greenberg's point is that Resurgent Republic is taking an Obama gaffe from the 2008 campaign and then making it out to be the official position. "It ends up being self-deluding to run on that," said Greenberg. He added: "They are telling leaders that this is an argument they should join in this way. But they're doing that without actually testing what the President of the United States is saying right now."
Even then, Greenberg said, looking to the 2008 election shows that it wouldn't work at the end of the day. "They did run the last two and a half weeks on that," he said. "Joe the Plumber was about that, and it didn't work. We won, even on the gaffe."




















that wasn't a gaffe
May 4, 2009 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Imagine a Democratic poll asked a question like"Republicans believe in cutting taxes and trying to drown the government like a baby in the bathtub. Do you support or oppose this principle?"
You could get ridiculous results that way, too.
May 4, 2009 6:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ironically, of course, that's fast becoming the mainstream Republican position. (Leave enough government, though, so that it can spy on you, imprison you indefinitely, torture you, and keep lots of foreign "interventions" going. The government is useful as a financial conduit from taxpayers to investment banks and "defense" contractors. Other than that, drown the baby.)
May 5, 2009 1:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
of course greenberg knows that resurgent republic, like the rest of the republican party, is focused entirely on politics at the expense of policy. they are only interested in message testing because they don't care what the public thinks - the republican party already knows what it stands for, they just need to find a way to trick the public into agreeing with them.
much like the jeb/cantor/mittens pizza party this past weekend, this isn't about trying to (re)align core republican values and the policy priorities of real voters, this is about trying to put the pre-ordained policy priorities of the party into whatever fancy packaging that they think they can get voters to buy.
they still think that they create reality and so needn't be bothered with discovering what reality is.
May 5, 2009 6:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
hey guys, these idiots want to continue to delude themselves, let them.. the more deluded they are about their own mistakes, their own inadequacies, their utter FAILURES we all know about, the better it is for us Dems...:) :)
May 5, 2009 9:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Much of this is just a pollster catfight, but Greenberg was correct and honest in his initial letter to the Resurgent Republic folks when he said that Democracy Corps often shows lower poll numbers for Obama and the Dems than most other pollster. Heck, sometimes they hit Rasmussen territory. As for the party ID split, even Rasmussen uses a 7pt Dem advantage. (his likely voter model brings his Dem numbers down) No way it's only +2 or even +4.
But yeah, let them continue to delude themselves. This is a party/movement that embraced and continues to promote the Plumber dude as if he and his hero Sarah (you know Joe/Sam wants to nail her as she's cleaning a high-powered assault rifle while reading from the scriptures and spitting on pictures of Obama and Darwin) will save them and bring them out of the wilderness. Did you read his interview with Christianity Today. Bonkers....
May 5, 2009 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Republicans still think their ideology is mainstream, so much for living in reality.
May 5, 2009 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink