Dems Hope For Messy GOP Senate Primary In Florida; GOPers Predict Smooth Road For Crist
The big question in the 2010 Florida Senate race, where moderate Republican Gov. Charlie Crist has just declared his candidacy for his open GOP-held seat, is just how much of a frontrunner he is -- and whether the GOP primary could get messy.
For example, the conservative blog RedState.com is already telling readers to not give any support to the NRSC because of their immediate endorsement of Crist: "We can disagree with the NRSC on many things, but this one is a bridge too far." And the Club For Growth is calling on Crist to reject a state budget plan that includes tax and fee increases.
A Florida Democratic source confidently predicted to me that Crist, who supported the stimulus bill and has taken other moderate positions, will face a divisive primary against former state House speaker Marco Rubio, running on the right. "It's already happening," the Dem source said. "Before he [Crist] was even in the race, his last campaign manager and former chief of staff was already taking shots at Rubio, and Rubio obviously took a lot of shots at him yesterday. So it's already ugly. They're not even waiting."
A Florida GOP source begged to differ, saying that the primary would likely work out pretty smoothly -- and Crist is the clear frontrunner.
The GOP source pointed out that while the Florida GOP has not officially endorsed Crist at this juncture, state party chairman Jim Greer is a longtime friend and supporter of Crist's. "So there's no question as to where the allegiance of our chairman is personally," the source said. "And if you look at the endorsements the governor has received from the national Republicans, those things speak for themselves. And I think down the road if there is a need for the state party to step in, that's a possibility."
For now, however, the source doesn't see official state party intervention as necessary -- though it's not out of the question: "The need may arise for the chairman and the party to step in and make an endorsement. But at this point I think the facts are speaking for themselves, and the governor is the frontrunner."
NRSC spokesperson Amber Wilkerson reiterated the NRSC's confidence in the Crist endorsement. "Sen. Cornyn's been very clear in ensuring that we find candidates who fit their state," said Wilkerson. "Charlie Crist is a proven leader in Florida, who continues to have extremely high approval ratings in the state, and we're confident that he is the candidate to win in Florida in 2010."
Calls and e-mails to the Crist and Rubio campaigns were not returned.
Josh
Matt
Eric
I think the Democrats should realized that a messy primary doesn't always translate into electoral defeat. If that is the case, we would have had McCain as president.
May 13, 2009 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
True, but for all its tribulations during 2008, the Democratic Party was never engaged in an internecine war over basic philosophy the way the Rs are now. Barack and Hillary were close on the issues.
May 13, 2009 2:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good comeback! :)
May 13, 2009 2:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rubio is running for state wide name recognition at this stage. He'll cast Crist as a moderate, which would help him in any general election versus a Democrat, and Crist will win the Senate seat. Then in two years time Rubio will run against the then 70yr old Nelson.
Presto, two senate seats for the GOP.
May 13, 2009 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, you wrote that before, and I think you've got it. This is the deal they'll offer Rubio, at least. "Okay, nice campaign, now let Crist get nominated in an orderly way, and you're next in line." Mr. Mitty, you were wrong about Toomey not running BTW, but that doesn't mean you will be this time.
Although, if Rubio does really well in likely-wingnut-voter polling, he might just ask himself if the deal is not an Overreach against his interests. I'm not sure Sestak was that serious till he saw the momentum moving against Specter.
May 13, 2009 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I still don't think Toomey expected Specter to switch parties - he expected Specter to veer hard right to try and stave off his primary attack. Toomey is going to get blown out in the general and he and the GOP knows it. It's just too bad the Dems gave Specter his rescue line in the first place. Sestak vs Toomey looked good for the Dems. Ol' backroom politics at it's best.
Rubio would get beat in a general right now, unless the political climate changes dramatically between now and 2010 the elections (and I think he knows it). A moderate Republican is the only hope for a purple Florida. He's going to have to cast himself to the right of Crist, which would kill him in the general.
May 13, 2009 6:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's already cast himself as far to the right of Crist. Everything you're saying makes sense, assuming he's a prudent, rational actor, which he probably is. "Probably" don't make it so, though.
I reiterate/rephrase: he'll really be in odd position if he starts polling well against Crist among likely voters, i.e., on his way to (inadvertently?) win the nomination but lose the general. This is not an impossible scenario as the wingers dislike Crist.
May 14, 2009 12:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Crist is a moderate, why are the GOP supporting him? Don't they consider moderates to be wusses?
May 13, 2009 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, that's a good question if taken seriously.
I'd like to see some poll results showing the number of self-identified Dems, Reps, and Indies in FL. And the results for the same poll from several years ago, so any trend could be spotted.
Lacking that, someone (like me if I weren't so lazy) could dig into voter-registration records and look for the same thing.
All politics are local. It may well be that the FL GOP has not turned into the RepubliFringe Party like it has in, say, PA.
May 13, 2009 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mid way through the Senate race, Crist will be dragged out of the closet, by an ex, ala Ted Haggard style.
May 13, 2009 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Scenes from Primary Colors flashed through my mind at your comment.
May 13, 2009 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Crist isn't trusted by the GOP base in my area (NW Florida). This is Limbaugh country.
They are upset that he worked with Obama, or at least he didn't do the grandstanding that some other GOP governors did when they prevented to refused stimulus money. So us Florida Democrats are hoping for the GOP base to screw over a popular candidate that looks moderate (Crist) and go with an unknown right-winger (Rubio) just because Rubio is a koolaid drinker.
May 13, 2009 3:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your intemperate, disrespectful, and unkind remarks are MUSIC TO MY EARS! :)
This local knowledge/insight stuff is really rich. White Collar, is there any chance that the Dems just dont' *have* a candidate, i.e., the Koolaider wins the nomination and goes on to win the general, because there's no opposition? Your views?
THANKS!
May 13, 2009 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can anyone from the Sunshine State tell who the Democrats have on deck for this race? What does it matter if the GOPers destroy each other if there's no credible Dem on the other side of the ballot (literally 'the other side' if they're still using butterfly ballots)?
May 13, 2009 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
The problem with Kendrick Meek is that he's not exactly kosher. He represents my district. He and his mother have gotten involved in things that really don't put them in a positive light. I also heard from some that he isn't particurlarly bright. I never met the guy. During the primaries Kendrick Meek was a hardcore Clinton supporter and the person who told me this was a hardcore Obama supporter.
Dan Gelber is pretty good but he is from South Florida. We need a Dem from Central Florida. In northern and central Florida, South Florida is seen with derision that's especially true with Miami.
May 13, 2009 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe the Democrats are planning a 1-2 punch of Jimmy Buffet and Dan Marino.
May 13, 2009 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Beware of Democrats whistling past the graveyard
One day, perhaps soon, a moderate right Republican like Crist will beat the Club for Growth and their American Taliban allies and that person will run for President in 2012
May 13, 2009 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd be a lot more worried about 2016. If the GOP 2012 nomination doesn't go to an ideologically pure rabid sacrifical lamb, it will only be because they think we're vulnerable. Besides, their attitude next time will be "we ran that expiriment and it failed."
I'd hate to lose in '16 but but if it means the moderate right can take back the GOP from the unmedicated loons, it would at least kinda be a good thing for the country.
May 13, 2009 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
That would be formidable. But until then, here comes Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush y'all!
May 13, 2009 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am almost positive Crist won't run for President. I am pretty sure he will do this so his term ending in 2016 leads right towards a Presidential run.
May 13, 2009 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just hope they wait until Crist is nominated and it's a few months into the campaign, i.e. too late to change candidates, before they out him and let the Democratic candidate win.....
May 13, 2009 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
While I would prefer a Democratic candidate (within reason, of course), I'd also prefer that were Crist to get outed, the voters would yawn and say "OK, but what're you going to do about the recession, anyway?"
It's past time.
May 13, 2009 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
An outed Crist could run as a Dem and win.
May 13, 2009 6:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does the Florida Democratic Party has a strong candidate? I'm clueless. There's Dan Gelber, a freshman State Senator, and Kendrick Meek, on his fourth term as a US Representative.
Both are from the Miami-Dade area, which is on the other side of the planet for people in the Florida Panhandle area, and both aren't known in my area. But Miami has a huge population - win big there and you might carry the state. This is way early in a state campaign, so we'll see what turn up in the coming year.
May 14, 2009 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink