Gallup: GOP Falls With Nearly Every Group, Down To Conservative, Church-Going Base
A new analysis by Gallup, compiled from their national polling done all this year, shows just how extensive the Republican Party's drop in voter self-identification has been, with decreases in nearly every demographic.
Compared to 2001, when George W. Bush first took office as president, GOP self-identification has fallen by ten points among college graduates, nine points among those 18-29 years of age, nine points in the Midwest, six in the East, five in the West, and even four points in the South. Married people identifying as Republicans have decreased by five points, and the difference is eight points among the unmarried. The list goes on and on.
In 2001, voters were 33% Democratic, 32% Republican, and 34% independent, with a Democratic edge of 45%-44% after leaners were pushed. But now, it's 36% Democrats, 27% Republicans and 37% independents, with a huge Democratic advantage of 53%-39% with leaners.
The only bright spots for the GOP are three base groups: Frequent churchgoers, with no decrease at all; conservatives, with only a one-point decrease; and voters 65 years of age or older, with a one-point decrease. It should also be noted that they've only gone down one point among non-whites -- but this is because they didn't have much party identification there to begin with.
Late Update: This post originally referenced the party-leaner numbers for college graduates, rather than for all Americans. The error has been corrected.


















When you lose six points in the 50-64 over eight years, only losing one in the 65+ demographic isn't much of a bright spot from long-term survival of the party perspective, what with that pesky inexorability of time and all.
May 18, 2009 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
With the Boomers scheduled to break the 65 barrier in a couple of years, I expect those numbers to start changing more radically toward the center-left. As you pointed out, time and events (Chicago '68, Viet Nam, the Draft, etc) have a way of bubbling to the surface. Some of us have very vivid memories of our youth.
May 18, 2009 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR KARL ROVE'S PERMANENT MAJORITY!!!!!
May 19, 2009 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
But on a more serious note, they are also losing elderly churchgoers as well BECAUSE THEY ARE DYING.
May 19, 2009 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
and voters 65 years of age or older, with a one-point decrease.
Uh huh. Buick sales only declined by 1 percent among drivers 65 and older, too.
May 18, 2009 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's only because they weren't right-wing enough. Gingrich, Limbaugh and DeMinted are fixing that. All will be well soon.
May 18, 2009 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow - those green bar graphs are stunning.
May 18, 2009 6:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Help us Mittens, you're our only hope.
May 18, 2009 6:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
And yet, Bill Bennett openly laughed the other day when John King read the title of James Carville's new book.
Yeah, Bill, there probably won't be 40 years of Democrats in power in the White House. But in Congress? It's happened before.
May 18, 2009 6:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
You Think You Know? Truth-It! It's time to unlearn what you've learned. Our future depends on it.
Find the truth & more.
May 18, 2009 7:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes! The elderly are the Republicans' future! So Obama's flexibity on healthcare is clearly an attempt to kill them all off. Why, he'd put them all onto ice-flows, if it weren't for global warming...(head esplode in three, two, one...)
May 18, 2009 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dang, I am a frequent church-goer but I am never a GOP supporter. Maybe someone has to start a group called "Christians for Jesus".
May 18, 2009 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmm... I wonder what the death rate is among people 65 and older. Whoever those repubs are, they're dying off....
May 18, 2009 7:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey! I take exception to that -- I'll be over 65 in 3 more years!
May 18, 2009 8:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
"GOP self-identification has fallen by ten points among college graduates"
What do these stats mean? Does that mean that of college graduates polled 10% fewer of the grads ID as GOPers, or does it mean that the shift in GOPer ID due to college grads alone comes to 10% of the total?
Given that the sub-populations are not all equal-sized, this makes a big difference. For instance if college grads were a small fraction of all GOPers in 2001, 10% of a small number is a very small fraction of the total population. But if the shift in college grads who ID as GOPers was 10% of the total population, and college grads were a small fraction, then that would be a huge fraction of the college grads who shifted. And this latter case would be very significant because it says that disaffection in that small sub-population (college grads who used to ID as GOPer) has been proportionately huge.
I cannot make out from the linked Gallup site just how it's meant.
May 18, 2009 7:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also, this is about leanings, "which party seems most sympatico?" etc. I'd be curious to know if voter registrations have also been shifting too. Did Gallup ask that question too (what was your registration in 2001 and now?) and then correlate registration with sympathy (Repo, lean Repo, Indy, lean Demo, Demo).
May 18, 2009 8:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks. I thought those graphs and what they were depicting was not what Edward Tufte limns as the visual display of quantitative information.
May 19, 2009 12:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe I just don't have enough context to understand the fine distinction in "points".
"10 of what exactly?" would be my short-form plaint...
May 19, 2009 1:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
I would like to see a self-identification poll in which respondents had to choose of the following: Republican, Conservative, Democrat, or Liberal/Progressive. Perhaps this is the time to break the two-flavored, one-party neoliberal system that is crushing most of the people in this country and the rest of the world.
May 18, 2009 8:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
And I suppose the evil neoliberal system should be replaced with anti-market socialism because that has worked out so well before?
May 19, 2009 11:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I sympathize with where you're coming from, but I just think the postmodern critique of neoliberalism is misguided, and it offers no realistic alternatives.
May 19, 2009 11:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've said it before and I'll say it again:
IF BARACK OBAMA GETS UNIVERSAL, SINGLE-PAYER HEALTH CARE PASSED, NO PARTY WILL OVERTAKE DEMOCRATS FOR 50 YEARS.
That is what happened in England, and it would happen here too. The problem is, he doesn't intend to do that.
May 18, 2009 8:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are billions bet against this. Even Obama cannot say single payer any longer. The millions lost in campaign contributions is intolerable to congress especially the senate. The HC ins industry is threatening to bring down the entire economy if single payer is put in place. Currently at 12%GDP we need to stop their profiteering. The billion dollar compensation package for one CEO was the straw that broke the camels back. Enough. We can have a co-op that covers everyone for about 10% of what we are currently paying and it would include dental and visual.
This is the national deal breaker between the people and our representatives and the private insurers will do everything and anything to stop it because they know it will be completely successful and end their money train...permanently.
It will only get through the senate by the reconciliation process and watch how many lobbyists' pet senators will try to prevent this happening. It will also be the measure of our president.
May 19, 2009 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
btw...this photo icon is a pic of that degenerate Russian refugee Ayn Rand who developed the art of selfishness to insane degrees. It lets me know how depraved modern republicans can be every time I look at her image. So I like to think I'm making her listen...knowing she stopped listening long ago.
May 19, 2009 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
t obad Obama wont use his office to effect real change for the average american.
i predict that when people realize he has fooled them, these numbers will be reversed in less then 5 years.
not a single policy has he changed or is he known to be interested in changing that is for the betterment of the average working american.
name one!
May 18, 2009 9:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
troll.
May 19, 2009 8:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Lily Ledbetter.
May 19, 2009 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Increase in minimum wage for the first time in 10 years.
May 19, 2009 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is a person and we are talking ideology here where republicans are being soundly rejected and yet still refuse to change. If Obama doesn't get our progressive agenda accomplished then we will try to find one that will but it won't be another used abusing republican. The people may come and go but our ideology will still be seeking the same goals and we will be looking for those who can accomplish this.
May 19, 2009 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Stem Cell research.
The conversation about how Obama is just like Bush is like the bit in life of Bryan where they sit around talking about "What have the Romans ever done for us? I mean besides irrigation, education, roads, and aqueducts... NOTHING!! WE HATE THE ROMANS!"
May 21, 2009 11:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
If the "frequent churchgoers" are described as a "bright spot", that's one way to look at it.
Another way is to see that the GOP barely had them in 2001 (52%), and after 9/11 and the "culture wars", they haven't made any gains.
So maybe "frequent churchgoing" isn't a good yardstick for political preference, especially in light of the GOP's losses in other categories.
May 18, 2009 10:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gingrich was trying to whip up intolerance among Catholics at Notre Dame, of course. He converted to Catholicism ostensibly for love of his third wife, but more likely in order to foment right wing idiocy among the anti-abortion zealots. He had success in rounding them up, but they were publicly embarrassed for their small-mindedness, and there must be a bunch of Catholics now who don't appreciate a scoundrel's attempt at hijacking their religion for a 2012 run. He'll make inroads among the hard cases, though, in states like Pa., Ohio, and that is how he is trying to do the math, but is that really going to add up for the smart-mouthing interloper?
Does he talk to Rove about this kind of ultra-cynical chicanery?
May 18, 2009 11:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh joy of joys, I see the morning's W.Post is running some imbecilic theocon drivel on righteously attacking Obama the heretic at Notre Dame. You'll want to skip that Talibangelical idiocy, but here is an interesting take on Gingrich's supposed conversion to Catholicism: http://www.alternet.org/democracy/134214/is_the_twice-divorced_newt_gingrich_converting_to_catholicism_for_a_2012_run/?page=3
May 19, 2009 3:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Count me as one of those frequent churchgoers that never was a Republican and never expect to be. The GOP is an engine of hateful intolerance, greed, arrogance, selfishness ,pollution, convenient ignorance, lies, and preemptive war.
May 18, 2009 10:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good summation! :)
Bear in mind, please, that some of the ignorance is highly legitimate, though! Joe the Plumber wasn't faking by one iota, he is ignorant as can be! :)
May 18, 2009 11:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hell yeah! Why do GOPers stand and cheer that bald dumbfuck? He absolutely never says a god damned thing that makes any sense with any known facts of any kind. He just blathers unrelated platitudes and they cheer like ..... crazy. The GOPers truly are just useless lizard brains always smelling the raw meat and pushing and shoving to get a lick, a bite, or a bellyful. YUK!
May 19, 2009 12:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, don't hold back or mince words. Tell us what you REALLY think.
May 19, 2009 2:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm with hollywood on this 100% BTW.
May 19, 2009 3:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Republican'ts SUCK!
May 19, 2009 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
"He absolutely never says a god damned thing that makes any sense with any known facts of any kind." Absolutely right. No exceptions to my knowledge. He is always disapproving of things without offering solutions. He actually reminds me of Bush's 2000 campaign, and so many Americans lapped that up, leaving me similarly dumbfounded.
May 19, 2009 3:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Plus he looks like Jeff Gannon. Ever see them in the same room at the same time?
May 19, 2009 8:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Those people will clap at anything that points a finger at dems and liberals. The "he's a Muslim and will bring Sharia law on all of us" crowd think Steele is a genius every time he sneers and Steele cultivates their depravity...just like Rush and most of the other lizard brains. Breeding willful ignorance can only be detrimental and will backfire on those cultivating it.
I enjoyed Hollywood's imagery as completely appropriate.
May 19, 2009 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good show, Brian. Some of us church-going types have known since our baptisms that the Republican party's brand of religion wasn't exactly divine.
I think the headline on this post is misleading. In the same poll, Gallup identified those who cited "frequent" church attendance at the level of almost weekly to monthly attendance as declining from 46% Republican affiliation to 40% affiliation.
To use the phrase "church-going" to describe the Republican base isn't really inaccurate, so that's not my complaint. It's more the assumption that because the GOP has a lot of people who report weekly church attendance, those people who report that they are still frequent church attendees aren't equally "church-going."
May 18, 2009 11:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good point. Weekly attendance is at the devout end of the scale.
May 19, 2009 12:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Republicans hurt America.
May 19, 2009 12:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
So,of these that forgot to wake up: bless them. Even crazed-addicted gamblers have to leave the table when there is nothing left.
May 19, 2009 12:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
There was a small decrease among the GenX/Reagan babies; how long before they realize they were fed a line of political BS and covert?
May 19, 2009 8:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
For as long as Republicans continue down the narrow path of connecting religion with politics, they will continue to fail. Just look at how President Obama handled the situation at Notre Dame on Sunday. What ever happened to the true separation of church and state?
Here's a Good Read From the Article:
OBAMA SILENCES CATHOLIC CRITICS
May 19, 2009 8:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Uhmmm.... This 1% drop in the 65 or over contingent...
When was the survey taken relative to the last mention of the Republican party's position on Social Security? Might be a relevent factor.
May 19, 2009 9:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Gad! I've a long-time frined who exclusively watches FOX "noise" -- and "24".
She KNOWS that the LIBERALS caused all the problems.
She's on Social Security. She didn't answer when I asked:
"Where would Social Security be now had the conservatives got their way on privatizing it to Wall St.?"
So I answered the question for her:
"It would be GONE."
May 19, 2009 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting that 'frequent church goers is unchanged.' Does that include Muslims, Jews, Budhists as well? Maybe they were never big Republican supporters anyway.
May 19, 2009 9:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't worry, JadeZ — this survey is great news... for Republicans!
May 19, 2009 10:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
As a life-long lefty who attends church every Sunday and is elderly (over 55), I thought I'd take a moment to register my dismay at the implication that most Christians are cretinous wing-nuts. Try dropping in on your local Episcopal Church for mass some Sunday. You'll be surprised. There really is a Christian Left, and I am humbled to be called to its ranks.
May 19, 2009 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Then there are all of us who do not attend church regularly because we don't like organized religion, but practice Christianity (or whatever) in our daily lives (or try to) :). Some churches do have some good music, however, which I do miss! It's hard for me to relate to these data, living here in the San Francisco Bay Area. I have never met a Republican I didn't like, but then I have hardly ever met a Republican.
May 19, 2009 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Boiling right down to the demiglace, eh?
In the end there will be nothing left but pure, undiluted wingnuttery. And at that point, the Wingularity will collapse unto itself.
We hope.
May 19, 2009 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
btw...this is not a pendulum swing. This time republicans "exposed" themselves proudly as detrimental to democracy and nearly completely turned America into a fascist corporate state, wrecking America almost beyond recognition. I say "almost" because given another 4yrs they would have succeeded.
They cultivated fear, hatred and ignorance in shocking degree and continue to do so.
They must be eliminated from government wherever they are found. They can throw money at each other and the media all they want but it won't save them. National health care reform will prove to be their ultimate defeat because it is necessary, would be a completely successful program and best for the people of America but trying to be stopped because of greed and the loss of campaign donations.
They became the party of hypocrisy by claiming "Country First" while obstructing everything that is good for the people of this country standing only for the wealthy elite and multinational corporations...and this time (thanks to the internet)their hypocrisy has been exposed and the people have seen them for the greedy self centered people they are. It's over for this obstructionist party who have demonstrated they would rather see the country fail than to lose power. The majority has said "screw them and the Jeebus they rode in on".
May 19, 2009 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Disagree on each of your points - Like a story teller, remaking history to slant it and create confusion, your claims are bogus and shallow. From a therapy standpoint, we all hope that you feel better now that the tirade is off your check. Get well soon.
May 22, 2009 12:59 AM | Reply | Permalink