GOP Pollster Fires Back At Stan Greenberg
Resurgent Republic, the Republican polling/analysis firm that aims to be a GOP counterpart to Democracy Corps, is firing back at the accusations leveled against them by the Dem firm's Stan Greenberg, who has essentially accused them of running a stacked survey.
Greenberg said that Resurgent Republic's first poll defeated its own mission, borrowed from Democracy Corps, of being a partisan pollster that at the same time is explicitly not geared to favor its own side, but to critically examine public opinion and give the party constructive advice:
Nothing is more self-defeating than attributing to the Democratic argument the language and themes Republicans use to attack Democrats rather than the language Democrats use themselves. In effect, your survey has you winning an argument with yourself. Indeed, that is where you start your analysis of the first poll - telling readers in bold and underlined type that you are winning the big ideological debate by two-to-one, which "verifies America remains a center-right country."
In an interview with TPM, Resurgent Republic co-founder Whit Ayres sought to debunk the accusations.
First of all, Ayres said, Greenberg is wrong when he says the poll shows only a two-point gap in partisan identification. This appears to come from including independents who lean Democratic or independent. But Ayres said the poll's cross-tabs actually put these people in the independent column. "That is not a reasonable way to interpret it, based on the way we asked the question," said Ayres.
The actual gap, excluding those independent leaners, is 33% Democrats to 29% Republicans -- pretty close to a recent Gallup poll showing 35% Democrats to 28% Republicans. And he said the poll's methodology is the standard random-dial technique, with a cell-phone sample added in to make sure younger voters are represented.
Ayres also disputed the accusation that respondents were given questions comparing Democratic and Republican positions, but that the Dem positions were phrased in a weak, caricatured way. Greenberg pointed specifically to one that summed up the Democratic economic position as: "Government policies should promote fairness by narrowing the gap between rich and poor, spreading the wealth, and making sure that economic outcomes are more equal."
But Ayres said all the questions were indeed done in good faith.
"The 'spreading the wealth' was a phrase right from Barack Obama. Now they might argue that it was an off-hand comment that wasn't really what he meant, and that's why we didn't just use that," said Ayres. "But clearly, the position of the left is that it's really important to narrow the gap between rich and poor, and make sure economic outcomes are more equal. I don't consider that a bastardization of the liberal argument at all."
He later added: "I've got a bunch of liberal friends who basically say, yup, that's what we should do."
"I think a fair minded person might say we would quibble with this one or that one," said Ayres. "But on balance, they've done a pretty good job representing the Democratic point of view. That was our intent, anyway."
Ayres had one other thing to say about Greenberg's open letter: "Interesting that he sent it to the press before he -- I still haven't received a copy of it."




















That's how they win. They lie and get backed up by putting it on TV as news....
That's how the do it.
May 4, 2009 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Instead of making substantive changes, they just want to change their stripes. Or rearrange the chairs - on the Titanic.
May 4, 2009 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wait - there's another kind of phone?
I kid - but this is still rather amazing to me. I'm past 40, and I don't have a land line. That doesn't seem the least bit unusual to me, and I was a bit of a late adopter WRT cell phones.
I guess 'younger voters' means those under 60? 70? That's the only way this makes sense to me. I could be way off though.
May 4, 2009 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought the same thing. I'm 57 and haven't used a land line for a couple of years. I can't wait to see what Nate Silver thinks of these guys. Methinks there's more "madness" than "methode"-ology.
May 4, 2009 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I got a call from Gallup yesterday on my cellphone. The guy said they were doing a cellphone-only survey. He asked me if I had a landline phone in addition to my cellphone. I told him yes.
He said I wasn't eligible. They were surveying people whose only phone was a cellphone. Oh, well. Goodbye (click!)
May 4, 2009 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
"But on balance, they've done a pretty good job representing the Democratic point of view."
If you've had too much Kool Aid you might think that. Greenberg should just let them believe what they want to believe. They'll die of starvation before they ever find their way out of the wilderness.
May 4, 2009 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, to be fair to Mr. Ayers, it's entirely plausible that he does believe "they've done a pretty good job representing the Democratic point of view."
And…
We should let them continue to delude themselves if that's the case. (Which I suppose is the reason the "open letter" went to the public, and not to the pollster. Who cares if the pollster gets it, but we don't want to let push-polls go unanswered.)
May 4, 2009 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is all right by me if the Gillespie wants to continue to delude himself and the GOP with his biased poll.
May 4, 2009 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is a pathetic defense.
First, the party ID difference is simply not 4 points, and pointing to a Gallup poll that lowballs the difference doesn't magically turn an outlier into good data. The D vs R difference in the electorate today is somewhere around 8 points. See, instead of justifying a result by cherrypicking a poll close to our own, a good pollster actually looks at ALL the polls. Because REALITY matters! And look here, you see a partisan difference of about 8 points! http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/05/party-id-revisited.html
So, the reality is that this poll is looking at a sample that's dramatically different than the electorate. It's way more Republican.
And the questions are similarly ridiculous. You find things like #38, which suggests that the current attempt to overturn a Bush-era regulation is a choice between: "Health care workers should be required to perform any medical procedures that are legal, including abortions." vs. "Health care workers should not be required to perform procedures they oppose on moral grounds, such as abortions."
There is zero legal support for this characterization.
There's just no question, this poll is asking a disproportionately Republican group how well strong Republican messages poll against weak Democratic caricatures.
In terms of letting us know how the full American electorate feels about the policy debate we're actually having, this isn't useful. And frankly, Republicans should find it quite worrisome that the questions they couldn't cook--like Obama's approval rating--were incredibly high.
We need a reality-based Republican party. It would much be better for America if the opposition were ready to govern the next time they had a chance. Cooking the books won't fix anything, and that's all this poll is. It's crooked accounting.
May 4, 2009 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
The D vs R difference in the electorate today is somewhere around 8 points.
Sorry, I'm wrong. It's about 10 points. There is about a 10 point gap between Democrats and Republicans. That's absolutely enormous.
And yes, if the "true" difference is about 10 points, you could statistically end up with a poll that showed a 4% partisan ID difference. It's about the same odds you'd end up with one that had a 16% partisan ID difference.
Funny how this poll didn't end up that way. Given these questions, I'm sure it was just chance...
May 4, 2009 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
You can put it even more dramatically. If Repos are 22% and Demos 33% as seen in some TPM blog, then we can truly say that 50% more people are Demos than are Repos!
May 4, 2009 7:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
"The 'spreading the wealth' was a phrase right from Barack Obama."
That's wrong, Obama never said that. In the context of a fair tax policy he said:
"...I think when you spread the wealth around, it's good for everybody."
I love it when the wingers get tripped-up by their own propaganda.
May 4, 2009 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
The spreading the wealth comment was made to Joe the Plummer and subsequently distorted. They really do believe their own propaganda.
May 5, 2009 1:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dishonest discussions. This is all they are left with. If and when they can have mature, honest debate, then maybe people will begin to take them seriously as a national party. Until then, anyone with a computer and "the Googles" can find the mis-information in their arguments.
May 4, 2009 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Doesn't matter whether Ayres' depiction of the Democratic position on taxes is accurate. If his objective is to assess the political currency of conservative values in 'nature', he must script policy arguments in a way that simulate how voters actually receive information. After all, most voters are not exposed to policy debates only through the GOP-preferred framework presented in his survey. What Ayres has done is appropriate for message testing, as Greenberg argued, but not for making sweeping conclusions about the United States being a "center-right" country.
May 4, 2009 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
4% is "pretty close" to 7%? Not really.
May 4, 2009 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Re:
Actually, even if you accept the lowball 35% to 28% poll, the %s used by Res Rep is not that close. The idea is not to comapre 33% to 35% and 29% to 28%, but the size of the gap -- 4% in the ResRep's sample vs. 7% in the poll.
And I agree that the questions are worded in a way that is a mild version of a push poll -- present your opponents' views in a way that makes them unappealing, then ask for the respondents opinion.
On the sample, there I agree with ResRep -- there are a number of surveys which have measured cellphone only penetration. It's getting higher, but is not a given, so supplementing the landline sample with a cellphone sample sounds good to me. You don't base a sample on how you are and.or how your usband it.
May 4, 2009 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is why they're doomed. They've lost the ability to even tell when they're lying with the inevitable result that they lie to themselves. Its usually a fatal disease of regimes in one party totalitarian states, but its been like a cancer in the Republican Party that's entered the malignant stage in 1999 and now they're in the terminal metastastatic stage.
May 4, 2009 8:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, it's bollocks.
The liberal argument is that the opportunities to generate income and aquire wealth should be equal, not this "redistribution of wealth" through government intervention crap. All such statements do is galvanize those who are predisposed to prejudice (racists), to be certain that the Obama Administration intends to give taxpayer money to minorities so they and whites are economically equal. And God knows we can't have that! (snark)
May 5, 2009 9:48 AM | Reply | Permalink