Conservative GOPer Marco Rubio Declares Candidacy For Florida Senate Race
Former Florida state House Speaker Marco Rubio has now officially declared his candidacy for his state's open GOP-held Senate seat:
This sets up a likely primary pitting the conservative Rubio against the moderate Republican Gov. Charlie Crist, who is expected to get in some time soon.
In his announcement YouTube, Rubio seems to allude to an imminent Crist entry -- and in the same breath includes a mention of President Obama: "I know that there are people more famous than I who may enter this race. And I know that the President of the United States himself will travel to Florida to campaign and raise money against me."
Rubio is expected to run a right-wing challenge against Crist, likely using Crist's support for the stimulus as a wedge. In fact, Rubio recently called for pro-stimulus Republicans to just join the Dems: "If you agree with Susan Collins or Olympia Snowe on some of these issues, you might as well become a Democrat."
Rubio told the Miami Herald that he'll continue to press conservative themes for the GOP. "The more Republicans become less distinguishable from Democrats, the less people will vote for Republicans," he said. "I don't agree with the notion that to grow our party we need to become more like Democrats."
Josh
Matt
Eric
Assuming that Crist jumps into the race, it will be fun to watch a right/moderate battle for the nomination - Rubio will certainly make things interesting
On the surface Crist would be favored -- in 2006 he won 64% of the vote in the Republican primary against a conservative (Tom Gallagher) when most of the state GOP establishment had rallied around Crist. Presumably he would have the same establishment behind him next year.
But a Senate primary could be a different ball game than a gubernatorial one -- more hot button Republican issues will be the focus (from support for the stimulus to social issues to aggressive foreign policy around Cuba). In each of these, Crist will be to the left of the bulk of the Republican primary electorate.
If Rubio can raise enough money, he has the potential to put together a winning conservative primary coalition -- from the Cuban vote (about 10% of a Republican primary) to religious right activists to hard core economic conservatives. In many ways, this will be a test of whether the Republican electorate is headed off a cliff by purging moderate candidates (a la Toomey/ Specter, Harris/Gilchrest, Walberg/Schwarz, etc
If Crist does run, a rough primary with Rubio ending with a narrow Rubio victory is probably our best hope for winning the seat. If Crist sits it out,expect a crowded Republican primary as other candidates like Vern Buchanan jump in.
May 5, 2009 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't pretend to know as much about Crist as a Floridian, but I recollect that one of his early acts was to abolish the use of paperless voting machines, and he supported allowing felons to vote along the same lines as other states. If the Republicans want to throw him out, I say we take him.
May 5, 2009 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink