GOP's Demographic Losses Point To More Right-Wing, Less Electable Republican Party
Yesterday, Gallup posted a new study showing that the Republican Party has lost significant numbers of voters across nearly all demographics since 2001 -- except for their conservative, church-going base. Republican self-identification is down from 32% in 2001 to 27% now, and including independents who lean GOP they've decreased from 44% to 39%.
So it's worth asking: Do these numbers work out to a more right-wing GOP, one that will have even more trouble winning elections? The answer appears to be yes -- at least for now.
I spoke with the Gallup study's author, Jeffrey M. Jones, and he confirmed to me that the shrunken GOP is indeed more conservative. In 2001, core Republicans were 62% conservative, 31% moderate and six percent liberal. After Republican-leaners were pushed, all Republicans and leaners were 57% conservative, 35% moderate and 8% liberal.
But now, the core Republicans are 68% conservative, 27% moderate and 5% liberal. Including GOP-leaners, they are 71% conservative, 24% moderate and 3% liberal.
"Well, it definitely seems like at this point with the Republican percentage of the population being what it is , conservatives have a better chance of getting nominated," said Jones. "I think you see that in Pennsylvania, which is why Specter decided not to be a Republican anymore."
Jones explained that if the GOP wants to enlarge itself, all things being equal, the only realistic path is move to the center -- but the current makeup of the party points towards nominating more conservative candidates. The party can't rely on demographic shifts or population replacement -- younger voters lean heavily Democratic, after all.
If all factors are not equal, though, the Republicans can change the game by actively working to improve the party's image from the current doldrums. "The reason we're seeing a lot of this is because of how poorly the last three or four years of the Bush Administration went," said Jones, "and I think that is why we've seen this big shift."
However, we shouldn't make the mistake of thinking the current pattern will continue endlessly. A lot depends on events of the next few years, and how the Democrats actually manage things in office.
"That could change -- we've seen quick changes before from one party to the other," said Jones. "So I think that could change in the future - I don't expect it to in the near term, but we've seen these big comebacks. The Democrats were seemingly dead in 2002."
Josh
Matt
Eric
Brian
I'm confused. How does one self-identify as "liberal" while also self-identifying as a member of the Republican party?
May 19, 2009 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Probably business types who identify as liberal on social issues, or perhaps some eccentric folks holding out hope for a return to the progressive Republican party of Teddy Roosevelt. They do exist. The McCain campaign was littered with these folks (remember, McCain was never the establishment conservative choice) - for progressive environmental policies, for gay marriage, etc.
May 19, 2009 11:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
They're identifying with what they remember the Republican Party to have been in the past.
They don't realize just how much the conservatives have done to destroy the liberal wing of the Republican Party. It has been a 50 or more year long concentrated campaign to remove liberals and become what the Republicans are today.
The feeling within the party, I am sure, is also that many of them consider themselves more personally liberal than they are allowed to speak of to other party members.
The result is that the leadership represents to vocal conservatives, but many of the rank-and-file consider those leaders as no more prevalent and certainly no more representative than the conservative-speaking leaders the Republicans have often placed into leadership positions. So they just compromise, but still consider themselves liberal in spite of the fact they see and hear so little within the party that they no longer recognize what real liberals look like.
That's my best guess, anyway. It looks like an interesting study in social psychology to me.
Of course, After writing the stuff above it occurs to me that we see this happening to Republicans because we come from our group in which we exist and do not fully recognize how it effects us. We make distinctions they don't even recognize. Understanding that would be another element of full understanding.
May 20, 2009 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
They are calling themselves "Liberal Republicans". Everythign being relative, of course.
May 21, 2009 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good heavens! When can we get away from this old hogwash that the GOP is "conservative"? Why can't we use some good old traditional words like "lunatic fringe"?
May 20, 2009 1:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
But that would suggest that 27% of the people in this country are lunatics. . . hmmm, good point.
May 20, 2009 2:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
LET'S DO IT!!
May 20, 2009 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yessssss!
May 20, 2009 7:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
How about Lunatic Fringed Lizard People ?
September 12, 2009 1:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hm, a less electable Republican Party wants to regain power.
In order to do this, they need to get people elected to office on a national level.
So it put at the helm a former Lt. Governor who couldn't even get himself elected to the Senate.
What's wrong with this picture?
May 20, 2009 10:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
I never worried about that over-hyped permanent repug majority, only how much damage they could do while they held on with lies and cheating
and I don't buy this pendulum swinging back and forth crap either
I've known for a long time that the repugs would be on their way out eventually, and I'm quite pleased it's happening before I'm a senior citizen. in the long term, it will never swing back their way as a national majority party
the demographic changes in this country, coupled with the racism and fundamentalism at their core that they can never truly exorcise, has meant certain doom for the repugs. just like the Afrikaners in South Africa, it's just a matter of time
I predict that the right-wing as we know it now will die off of old age in another generation or two, their limited offspring relegated to a few city council or school board slots in the South. democrats, continuing to operate largely as they do now, will be considered the right-wing corporate/military party in the future, and greens and other "liberal" parties will spring up in a big way to challenge dems from the left. of course, this is based on the premise that we survive as a democracy and do not become a corporate, theocratic, and/or military totalitarian state
May 21, 2009 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Duh, the title kind of goes without saying. So does the part about improving their image. Glad that's not my job.
They play these childish name calling games, are anti to everything, pretend that they aren't responsible for the lions' share of the countries problems, stand right with Dick & all the old has beens, cozy up to torture, defend bush & keep on repeating their same old disproven theories. That's not exactly a move to the center.
May 21, 2009 11:32 PM | Reply | Permalink