People in NJ hate all their politicians - party doesn't matter. If you're an incumbent, you're to blame for high property taxes, unemployment, crappy roads, evil teachers unions, etc, etc. Corzine is dealing with the Kean/Whitman/McGreevey/Bush legacy, especially when it comes to the state's economic situation. Doesn't matter if he didn't cause - he's the incumbent, it's his fault.

But as Rasmussen (he lives in my town and yes, he's a wingnut Christianist but a decent pollster on straight head-to-head matchups) notes, GOP candidates often do well in early polls but the Dems catch up as it gets closer to the election. There were concerns that Corzine was going to be able to beat Schundler in 2006 and polls confirmed that concern - he beat him easily. There were worries that Menendez might not be able to hold Corzine's old seat - he won handily. Even Lautenberg was able to win pretty easily after coming out of retirement late in the race to replace the corrup Bob Torricelli. The state Dem machine picks up the pace later in the race. Counties like mine lean GOP but there are large urban counties in the state that are heavily Democratic and they often put the Dem candidate over the top. Kean rode the Reagan wave into office. Whitman benefited from the extreme (and irrational) hatred New Jerseyans felt towards Jim Florio. Corzine is polling poorly but I don't see nearly the level of hate that was directed towards Florio back when he was running for re-election against Whitman.

Now, Corzine could certainly lose this race - Christie isn't exactly a beloved character in the state but he made a name for himself as a prosecutor going after corrupt pols, and there are plenty of them in my state, on both sides of the aisle. But I wouldn't read too much into the early polls, especially since Corzine is just starting to gear up his campaign. Unlike Corzine, Christie and Lonegan have a primary so they've been campaigning and fundraising (something Corzine doesn't really have to do given all the money he has) for months.