Poll: Ridge Leads Toomey In 2010 Pennsylvania Senate Primary -- By A Landslide
A new poll of Pennsylvania from Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies shows that former Gov. Tom Ridge (R-PA), who is reportedly considering a bid for the Senate seat now held by Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter, would currently lead conservative candidate Pat Toomey in a 60%-23% landslide for the Republican primary.
Toomey's big lead over Specter in the primary polls spurred the incumbent to switch parties, which in turn created the question of whether the Republicans were guaranteed Toomey as the nominee, or whether another Republican could take him. Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT), who is also vice chair of the NRSC, has openly said Toomey cannot win, so the establishment could understandably be eager for someone else. And if Ridge gets in, they just might have it.
Another key finding: In a general election match-up, Ridge currently leads Specter by 48%-41%, compared to Toomey trailing Specter by 49%-40%. The big question is whether Ridge's support is truly solid, or whether going through an actual campaign could wear him down through attacks coming from the right. (See an early sample of that right here.)
From the pollster's analysis, which reads practically like a draft movement's exhortation for Ridge to get in:
But, the strength of Ridge's candidacy is remarkable - fully two-thirds of voters in the state have a favorable impression of him, he leads the GOP primary by nearly 40 points, and he's leading the incumbent US Senator by seven points on the ballot.
Tom Ridge would be a very significant obstacle in Arlen Specter's drive for re-election.
Late Update: Toomey spokesperson Nachama Soloveichik has issued this statement:
"This is a poll commissioned by Specter supporters and conducted by Specter's polling firm. It's not surprising that it would show their preferred candidate ahead. Tom Ridge is an honorable person, with very high name ID, so there's no doubt he would begin a campaign with high poll numbers. But in the one year's time in which Republican primary voters would come to know the countless similarities between the voting records of Ridge and Specter, attitudes toward the former governor would undoubtedly change. Pat Toomey is the candidate with the consistent record of standing up for taxpayers that is needed to win the GOP primary, who has a track record of winning general elections in Democratic-leaning areas, and who even this poll shows is within close striking distance of Specter in the general election."
The poll was commissioned by an RNC member from Pennsylvania. And while it's true that POS was Specter's pollster for years, they very publicly severed ties with him after he switched parties.
Josh
Matt
Eric
That poll doesn't really show me how non-PA resident Ridge will do against a well funded and backed up by labor Dem candidate who paints him as a Bush crony.
"A new poll of Pennsylvania from Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies"
Okay and I should believe them because...........? Are they a legit group?
May 5, 2009 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
1. Democrats are hurting Specter's chances by calling him a Benedict Arnold, often not in so many words but Sestak says that literally. Dems will have themselves to blame if they don't embrace Specter but he gets the nomination and loses to Ridge.
2. Is this a legitimate polling exercise, one wonders, or are these people shilling for Ridge?
May 5, 2009 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Dems will have themselves to blame if they don't put up a solid Loyal Democrat for the election. Even if that poll is real I don't buy any Bush admin guys doing that well in any election now versus any strong dem. I just can't see it. Plus the whole Maryland resident thing?
Maybe its just me but this smells like repubs goin for a hail mary.
May 5, 2009 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am a novice on Specter, and I respect the knowledge of people who say he's an utter opportunist, that can't be totally wrong as too many sharp observers are saying it. I *do* think that Specter values this independent thing he's got going for himself more than his constituents do, and he's fooling himself that this is some great asset, especially now that he's switched. I was glad SEIU had a sit down with him, and it's good Sestak is making him feel the heat. He *should* be a damn loyal Democrat if he wants the party's support. If he's an opportunist, it's the Dems' job to convince him that there is where his opportunity lies, not this independent crap.
I am pretty sure Ridge can change residence in time, so I wouldn't put too much stock in that. Not everybody thinks he's even going to run, though. I'm for Toomey, of course, and any Republican who wants to continue Bush's catastrophically failed policies can ALWAYS count on my support!
May 5, 2009 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
P.S. Holy shit, is he going senile?! He's come out for *Coleman*?!!
OMFG! :(
May 5, 2009 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm hoping its a joke.
May 5, 2009 6:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think Specter really values anything other than Specter and his job. You'd think he would have transitioned to the left a bit more by now but maybe he doesn't give a damn. I kinda got the idea that the new EFCA thing Specter is said to be working on is the way he worked out changing his mind back to where it used to be. I hate this guy. Trying to describe his position on anything is like talking about sides of a basketball.
I hope he loses or retires.
On Ridge, I heard someone ponder whether him coming back to run but not being a real resident would become a campaign issue like it did for someone else. I would like to see Sestak take it to Ridge though. Sestak seems pretty pissed off in general lately LMAO - I like it.
May 5, 2009 6:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
As a Repub Specter had a reputation for talking like an independent and making a show of standing up to Bush somewhat, then caving when crunch time came and voting the party line.
Why would he change now? A real piece of work. There's no advantage to the Dems in backing him after this year. He's old, sick and is burning too many bridges. I think his career is over.
May 5, 2009 9:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sure, I'm glad there's pressure on Specter.
OTOH, I think people should also wait and see if Specter is willing to make some important concessions on key votes where he could be decisive. I trust the WH on this somewhat, presuming they know their agenda, know where the votes are, and have done the math better than I can.
Also, the fact Ridge or someone might come along and blow a Democrat or a weakened Specter out of the water, is a serious concern.
May 6, 2009 1:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
I was in agreement with you that he could benefit from some time to prove himself. But he's sure overplayed his hand now. If that Coleman shit was sardonic humor, it backfired among Senators who were already antagonized by his remarks.
Here's what he should have been saying: "While I may have differences from time to time, of course I am a loyal Democrat. I'm on a new team now, a team that is generating a lot of excitment, and I'm delighted to be here. I am determined to make this work with my fellow Democrats."
May 6, 2009 2:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Two polls-
One says Specter crashes Toomey by double digits, another says single digits. I'd wait for more independent polling before jumping into conclusions. One thing is clear though-- Specter has a race on his hands if Ridge jumps in. As for Ridge, he's a RINO for all intents and purposes. Not much of a change for the GOP if you ask me.
May 5, 2009 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
BTW does anyone know if there is a residency requirement in Pennsylvania or can Ridge rent an apartment for cheap in some economically distressed village and establish that as domicile in two weeks' time?
BTW when Poppy Bush was President, as I understood it, he maintained Texas residency by (try to follow this) renting a hotel room on long-term lease, subleasing it back to the same hotel, and having them rent out the room to guests.
May 5, 2009 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let Mr pre-Katrina FEMA de-funder bring it on.
May 5, 2009 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
See? That took 23 minutes.
This guy is gonna deflate like Adolph Ghouliani
May 5, 2009 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's kinda hard to swallow the argument that the PA voters who have been reelecting Specter for 30 years, and are now booting him becasue he's too far LEFT, would concur with your take on things.
I understand PA has shifted. I don't think it's shifted that much.
May 6, 2009 1:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
The people that have been reelecting Specter for 30 years have mostly moved to the left. That is why he can't do anything with the new far right concentrated GOP in PA who love Toomey. It isn't that Specter can't win a general, he just can't win a GOP primary.
Did PA go for McCain or something? Last I checked being associated with Bush is still a liability pretty much everywhere except fringe red states.
May 6, 2009 4:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
This Tom Ridge?
Mr. Duct tape and plastic sheeting running as Senator? How much of this do Pennsylvanians remember? I remember agreeing with fellow DC-metropolitans that the guy was a buffoon yanking our chain.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article397654.ece
May 5, 2009 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yikes. This is where I thank Josh for not publishing my afternoon email proclaiming, "the only thing preventing Toomey from winning the Republican nomination is his own cowardice."
It's just one poll and I'm sure there's a lot of name-rec going on here, but I really thought Toomey would poll better than this.
May 5, 2009 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Would like to see some of the background for this poll. Did they just poll Pennsylvania Republicans or did they poll by asking if the person had ever voted in a Republican primary.
Everybody knows that the primary voter is more conservative than the general electorate.
May 5, 2009 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Meaningless. Toomey is going to be the Republican nominee.
May 5, 2009 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ridge would at least be fun for the Democrats to campaign against. TV ad ideas just pour from my feverish brain, just thinking about it. It's a good thing the Democrats have such a solid candidate out there....oops.
May 5, 2009 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
From what I have heard from the pundants, Toomey couldn't win a race against a snail!
May 5, 2009 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I need polls on Sestak vs Specter/Toomey/Ridge.
From an independant pollster.
May 5, 2009 6:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm with Atrios: this poll is before Tomey and Wingnut Radio & Bloogers start pointing out that Ridge is an identical R-PA that Arlen was. The R-PA Base is wingnut. They haven't been properly reminded that Ridge isn't one of them.
Give it time. The only positive here is that Ridge reads that polling and jumps in. That means that the GOP bleeds a lot of money in the primary, and Tomey comes out of it broke and having turned off the Specter-Ridge "moderates" (former GOPers who have gone indy) in the state towards the Dems, be it Arlen or someone who primaries him in the Dem primary.
We should be pulling for Ridge to get in. He's not going to beat Tomey.
John
May 5, 2009 7:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Specter is a snake and a literal DINO. Hopefully, the Dems won't need his vote after 2010 because they will have picked up a few more seats, and they probably won't get his vote before then anyway.
At least Lieberman votes with the Democrats most of the time.
May 5, 2009 8:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am very dubious about whether this poll realistically captures what would happen in actual campaigns. Politically, Specter and Ridge are pretty similar. He was on McCain's short list for VP, but his closeness to Bush as head of Homeland Security and his pro-choice position killed that option. The latter will kill him in the primary and the former in the general. He was a popular governor, and this poll probably reflects past good will, but PA has a closed primary, and a couple hundred thousand Rs fled the party in 2008, leaving a more conservative rump behind. Ridge would be knee-capped in the primary, and bushwacked in the general. Come 2010, the winner of the D primary with the backing of labor could take him.
May 5, 2009 9:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love that a Republican polling firm has the acronym "POS."
May 5, 2009 10:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
This adds some perspective to people who know nothing about the state's politics, and yet think that they can annoint the candidate of their choice.
Playing with fire here. We don't want either Ridge or -- god forbid -- Toomey to win.
May 5, 2009 10:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Tom Ridge crushes Toomey in the polls for the primary, why is Specter in such a jam? Ridge isn't way to the right of Specter.
May 5, 2009 11:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tom Ridge won't run. He quit the Bush adminstration because he wasn't making enough money to support his family in the manner to which they'd become accustomed. He won't take the pay cut.
May 5, 2009 11:16 PM | Reply | Permalink