Poll: Specter Starts 2010 Dem Primary With Big Lead Over Sestak
The new Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania finds that Sen. Arlen Specter has a big lead in the 2010 Democratic primary against his challenger, Rep. Joe Sestak: Specter 50%, Sestak 21%.
Pennsylvania Democrats also have a 70% favorable rating for their newest Democratic Senator, to only 14% unfavorable, and they believe by a 64%-18% margin that he deserves to be re-elected. Sestak remains an unknown for now, with only a 27% favorable rating among Democrats to 3% unfavorable, and 70% having no opinion.
In a general election match-up with conservative former Rep. Pat Toomey -- whose Republican primary challenge scared Specter into switching parties -- Specter has a lead of 46%-37%, down from 53%-33% margin earlier this month. Specter also leads Rep. Jim Gerlach, a possible GOP primary opponent of Toomey's, by 45%-36%. Sestak edges Toomey 37%-35% and leads Gerlach 36%-30%, with the higher undecided rate owing to Sestak being less well known than Specter. And in a Republican primary, Toomey leads Gerlach 38%-10%.
The survey was conducted May 20-26, before we broke the news that Sestak is in the race.
Josh
Matt
Eric
70% have no opinion of Sestak. . .
That's a great place to be for an underdog with a lot of money ($10 million) and a lot of time (a year).
May 28, 2009 9:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, I'm asking anyone who might know: Has Specter said this is the reason he switched parties? If not, why does this keep getting repeated, even here?
May 28, 2009 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
This polling does not matter.
First and foremost, Sestak's presence in the race will force Specter to vote the right way, knowing that if he doesn't, Sestak will gain valuable ammunition for his challenge. That alone makes Sestak's running worthwhile.
Second, he's a congressman representing 1/19th of the state. Lack of name recognition will keep him far behind today. He's got a full year (or more? -- not sure when the primary is) to become known. At that point, his biography as an admiral and his integrity will allow him to catch up, and any ammunition Specter provides (see above) could well enable him to win.
May 28, 2009 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Fools errand
May 28, 2009 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sestak doesn't need to win, merely ensure that Specter gets on the record long and long behind the right issues, for example EFCA.
May 28, 2009 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
The only way a Republican can win the PA Senate is if a primary battle splits the electorate.
Let me repeat this.
The only way a Republican can win the PA Senate is if a primary battle splits the electorate.
I'm speaking from PA-7, where I voted for Sestak last election.
The ONLY WAY a REPUBLICAN can win the PA SENATE is if a PRIMARY BATTLE splits the electorate.
One unremarkable year in the House and Sestak wants to jump to the Senate.
THE ONLY WAY A REPUBLICAN CAN WIN THE PA SENATE -- AND PEOPLE, IT'S A *WEAK* BLUE STATE -- IS IF A PRIMARY BATTLE SPLITS THE ELECTORATE.
Learn it. Know it. Live it. This is not a game.
May 28, 2009 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hear ya, frog. But here's my perspective -- if Specter starts voting like a reliable Democrat, he'll sail through the primary and the general election. If he doesn't, then he doesn't deserve reelection anyway.
May 28, 2009 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink