Obama's Upcoming Appointment Of McHugh Sets Up Potential Nail-Biter For Special Election
With reports coming in that President Obama will appoint Rep. John McHugh (R-NY) as the new Secretary of the Army, the political world will now be gearing up for what could be yet another high-stakes special Congressional election in upstate New York, so soon after we already had a photo-finish for the former House seat of appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY). And so far, both parties seem to be downplaying expectations.
The district itself has all the makings of a swing seat. President Obama carried it 52%-47% in 2008, just slightly behind the curve of his overall 53%-46% national victory over John McCain. Before that, it voted 51%-47% for George W. Bush in 2004. Compare this to the NY-20 special election, which was won by Democrat Scott Murphy by a razor-thin margin, where Obama had carried it 51%-48% in 2008, and Bush had taken it 53%-45% in 2004. So on paper, this could be a potential Dem pickup in the special election.
So far, though, both sides are painting a good picture for the other guy. A Republican source points out that a local state Senate seat flipped from the GOP to the Democrats last year, and that this is a more Dem-leaning district than NY-20 was.
A Democratic source, meanwhile, gives the opposite message. "The thing to keep in mind is that unlike the special election in New York's 20th District, Sen. Gillibrand had a really strong campaign structure in place -- Democrats haven't really played in New York's 23rd District in years." The source added: "We'd have a chance at winning this seat, though it certainly still favors a Republican candidate."
It's too soon to have any potential candidate names out there, and the date of the special election itself is not yet known. First of all, Gov. David Paterson (D) has some leeway for setting the date after a vacancy occurs -- and of course the vacancy hasn't occurred yet, and probably won't until McHugh is confirmed and then resigns his seat.
Late Update: A Democratic source in Albany says that the best potential Dem candidate, state Sen. Darrel Aubertine -- the man who picked up that state Senate seat mentioned above -- could possibly face some pressure to not run for Congress. If he were to win, this would place his state Senate seat up for grabs in a chamber that the Dems now only control by a 32-30 margin.
Late Late Update: Aubertine spokesman Drew Mangione just told me: "It's too early to comment, but the Senator is committed to his work in the New York state Senate."
Josh
Matt
Eric
Brian
Ha! If we take this seat that leaves what - 2 Republican congressmen in all of New York? Suck on that Tom Delay!
June 2, 2009 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Eventually the Republicans will win one of these seats that should be theirs anyway. And whenever that day is, is when they'll be shrieking about what an overpowering symbol it is that their recovery is long-since-underway and is moving into its more advanced and robust phases.
June 2, 2009 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
There is no way a guy is not going to run for Congress to keep a State Senate seat. No way.
June 2, 2009 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
I admit I'm commenting from a different state, but still, a US House seat at the cost of a house of a state legislature? I think the concern is reasonable. In a tied senate, any senator could jerk around his caucus by doing his best Lieberman impression.
June 2, 2009 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yahoo news ~
In Congress, McHugh devoted himself to protecting and expanding Fort Drum in northern New York, home of the Army's 10th Mountain Division.
McHugh and then-Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton even went so far as to write a letter of protest to a fictional character on the television show "The West Wing" after an episode suggested closing the base.
WROTE A LETTER TO A FICTIONAL CHARACTER?
June 2, 2009 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Atta boy, Obama! Keep hiring Repbs so the Dems can,hopefully win in those districts!
Is this a ploy you think?
June 2, 2009 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Two things I wish to convey through this blog viz., people who don't live in the U.S. were amazed that Americans would reelect GW in 2004, to put it mildly we thought you were nuts, you kind of restored our belief in you when you elected your present president, however, please bear in mind that we are now watching with great interest the local elections.
Will Americans vote to continue the change they embarked on in Nov. or will they once again allow the wool to be pulled over their eyes, and end up electing those who don't realize that the world is now truly a village. Second, does anyone recognize the job BO is doing?. I think that he behaves like the only adult in Washington. He is clear-headed, seem to have a plan for America, and have surrounded himself with others of like mind. Perhaps someday his true genius will be recognized and appreciated when like us you enjoy universal health care. He surely has undertaken a lot, but seemly has the ability to achieve a goal.
Jah walks
June 2, 2009 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink