Poll: GOP Sen. Burr Vulnerable In 2010, Trails Generic Democrat
A new survey of North Carolina from Public Policy Polling (D) is a further indication that Republican Sen. Richard Burr is vulnerable going into his 2010 re-election battle, trailing a generic Democrat.
The numbers: Generic Dem 41%, Burr 38%, with a ±3.5% margin of error. As for an actual Democrat, the Dems recently struck out on recruitment when popular state Attorney General Roy Cooper announced he wasn't running, and no big names have yet popped up to make the race.
"With Burr's numbers much more dire than Elizabeth Dole's at this point two years ago it's a wonder prominent Democrats aren't fighting for the opportunity to run for this seat," PPP president Dean Debnam says in the analysis. "The current crop of Democratic leaders in the state just isn't as ambitious as in most places."
Interestingly, a PPP survey from a few weeks ago showed Burr ahead of several potential Dem candidates who were given as genuine names. So it's quite intriguing that the generic Democrat has a narrow lead.
Josh
Matt
Eric
Brian
Hopefully a serious Democrat will commit to the race soon
My sense is that Cal Cunningham may have the best profile for the race - I don't know much about his politics, but his Iraq vet/ former state Senator/ well-connected lawyer in Winston-Salem seems like a good bio for a candidate. Not sure how close he actually is to running.
Elaine Marshall is also making noises about the race - she has won statewide (Secretary of State, beating NASCAR icon Richard Petty in 1996) - but her previous run for US Senate (a primary loss to Erskine Bowles) wasn't particularly impressive.
I'd rather not see Congressman Mike McIntyre make the run -- he might be a strong candidate, but the DC insider thing wouldn't make the strongest challenge to Burr -- and defending a marginal open seat in the House isn't appealing.
June 17, 2009 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, I hear Terry McAuliffe isn't very busy right now. Maybe he could have his arm twisted into moving to NC???
June 17, 2009 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Among junkies knowledgeable about polling, there is nothing "intriguing" at all about Burr faring worse against a "generic Democrat" than against named potential Democratic opponents. It's perfectly normal, generic opponents ALMOST ALWAYS poll better than named ones.
You ask people if they prefer "Elected Official X" or "a Democrat/Republican" (whichever is the opposing party), and respondents fall back on their partisan default. But give those same respondents a specific name, and some of them just don't like that guy or woman and go with the incumbent.
June 17, 2009 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm setting up a "Draft Generic Democrat for U.S. Senate" website. Hopefully, if enought people sign on, we can pursuade Gen (as we call him/her/it hereabouts) to get into the race.
I doubt it, though. Most first string Democrats in this stateseem to get the fainting horrors at the mere thought of running against an incumbent Republican in a statewise race. Doesn't matter matter how weak the Republican is, they demur and then the state party ends up moving to the second string, or even the J.V.
June 17, 2009 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink