A new Quinnipiac poll from New Jersey finds Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine trailing his Republican opponent, former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie, by a 50%-40% margin among likely voters.

This is the first Quinnipiac poll since Christie won the Republican primary last week. This poll indicates that Christie might not have actually gained much of a bounce: Among registered voters he leads Corzine by 46%-37%, compared to a nearly identical 45%-38% margin among registered voters in late May.

From the pollster's analysis: "Voters say 55 - 37 percent that Corzine does not deserve to be reelected. Democrats say four more years 66 - 25 percent, while he gets an 84 - 9 percent thumbs down from Republicans and a 64 - 28 percent boot from independent voters."

The big question for Corzine is whether he can successfully reassert a common pattern in deep-blue New Jersey, where disliked Dems can frequently come from behind in the home stretch by attacking the Republican rival's conservatism and ties to the national GOP. If he ends up being unable to do that, this could very well become a Republican pickup.