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Poll: No Immediate Republican Frontrunner For 2012
A new CNN poll finds that there is no immediate frontrunner for the Republican nomination in 2012. Here are the numbers, with a ±4.5% margin of error among GOP respondents:
Mike Huckabee 22%
Sarah Palin 21%
Mitt Romney 21%
Newt Gingrich 13%
Jeb Bush 6%
Someone else (volunteered answer) 10%
At this point there really doesn't need to be an immediate Republican frontrunner. It's even quite plausible that the lack of a current leading candidate could have its own mix of pluses and minuses.
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| TOPICS: Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Pres '12, Sarah Palin
| TOPICS: Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Pres '12, Sarah Palin
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Josh
Matt
Eric
The group that answered "someone else" (please God, anyone else) are the smartest bastards they talked to.
June 2, 2009 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, very good! Ha-hah!
I guess the dumbest were the 21st who want Palin!
June 2, 2009 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm hoping Michelle Bachman throws her hat in.
June 2, 2009 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Race looks like a dead heat, with emphasis on "dead."
June 2, 2009 6:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good one! LOL! :)
June 2, 2009 7:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
And in June 2005 the number of Democrats who would have picked "Barak Obama" would have been in the low single digits.
Or, for more fun, in June 1973 the number of Democrats who had even HEARD of "Jimmy Carter" had to be virtually zero outside of Georgia.
What this tells me is that the 2012 candidate will be one of the follow two buckets:
a) A virtual unknown who will become a star sometime in the next 3 years. This option is likely if Obama's popularity is in the dumps come January 2012.
b) If Obama is still enjoying high popularity in 2012, look for the party to pick a sacrificial candidate as an "honor" for someone. Typically this is an old far like Dole '96 or McCain '08 who's run for the office many times but never got the nomination, and who will be too old to try again next time. Or perhaps the sort of old-time, party elite candidate who would be a poor choice in a competitive year but who deserves the honor of a nomination in a year they party can't win anyway. Like Mondale in '84.
So, if (a) is true in early 2012 then I'm guessing the actual nominee is not someone on the list. Maybe a Pawlenty, if he plays his cards right, or someone even more obscure.
If (b) is the case in 2012, which is likely, then I could see the Republicans sacrificing Jeb Bush to hopefully rid themselves of that family once and for all. Or maybe they'll let Gingrich have his last hurrah.
June 2, 2009 7:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where is Bachmann?
June 2, 2009 7:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
The fact that 10% of the people they talked to volunteered the same answer says a lot.
Palin/Huckabee 2012!!!!
June 2, 2009 8:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney? Thus the GOP continues their trend of backing the dumbest of the dumb.
Sen. George Allen was the dumbest Republican around, and would have had the 2008 nomination locked up had he not been too stupid to keep his racist mouth shut. Dumb and racist fits the GOP mold, but one has to be discreet about it if one hopes to mislead the populace.
Allen's stumble left the field open for Huckabee, Romney and Fred Thompson, a group with less than one whole brain among them. These stooges split the moron vote three ways and gave John McCain an opening. Recall that McCain, who is simple but not dumb, went head to head against George Bush in 2000; without a divided dummy vote, the biggest imbecile of all time quickly captured the GOP nomination.
McCain tried to court the idiot vote with his choice of Sarah Palin but 8 years of stupidity under Bush had left the nation in such wreckage that ordinary boobs finally understood that the President should have a more advanced skill set than your typical drinking buddy.
June 2, 2009 8:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Monument... astute post and relevant observations.
While someone voters do not know can certainly pop up and capture a crown, voters don't forget those whose names are mud, such as Palin.
I agree about 2012. No Repub sees a snow ball in hell chance of winning POTUS in 2012 so theparty will put up a candidate for a dry run for 2016 or a sacrificial lamb (who will run, and lose, for the good of the party).
I'd like to hear the conversations the Repubs are having,
"You run
"No YOU run"
"Hell you ain't gonna win ever, so you run"
"No one likes YOU, so you run"
"Take one for the team, you run"
"You can't force me to run, so I ain't"
"Hey, you could use the publicity, you run"
And so on and so forth.
June 6, 2009 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink